Two Plus Two Newer Archives Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
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#1
11-23-2007, 03:09 PM
 Pokey Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Using the whole Frist, doc? Posts: 3,712
Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

<font color="blue">As I played through this hand I realized it was little more than a big math puzzle. I thought uNL might get some benefits out of seeing it.

Villain is a bit on the loose side: he runs 77/5/1.2 over about 100 hands. His bets usually mean he's got a hand, but they do NOT indicate a monster. Think of his bets as meaning "I have at least a pair."

In case you haven't seen these before, I'm sitting at one of Full Tilt's Cap NL tables. That means that the betting is always capped at 30 BBs -- in other words, any stack bigger than 30 BBs is considered to be only 30 for any given hand. In other words, ignore the stack sizes -- everybody at the table has \$30.</font>

Full Tilt Poker, \$0.50/\$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, \$30 Betting Cap, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: \$120.75
Hero (BTN): \$259.60
SB: \$73.80
BB: \$114.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls \$1, <font color="red">Hero raises to \$5</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls \$4

Flop: (\$11.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets \$7</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to \$14</font>, Hero calls \$7

<font color="blue">My c-bet gets check-minraised.

First question: can I call this raise? Why or why not?</font>

Turn: (\$39.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets \$11 all-in</font>....

<font color="blue">After check-raising the flop, villain open-pushes the turn.

Second question: can I call this bet? Why or why not?</font>
#2
11-23-2007, 03:18 PM
 kaz2107 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Hating CO pro sports atm Posts: 2,943
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

if u r calling the cr on the flop i hope to god u call the turn bet.

that being said being so shallow (which i think is extremely lame) i cant fathom a call of the cr on the flop given all we have is 2 overs and a backdoor flushdraw. doesnt seem like we have enough equity against a pair or better here
#3
11-23-2007, 03:21 PM
 wingchunflush Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Fort Worth, TX Posts: 992
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

Well you have to put in 11 to win 50.50. You have 10 outs roughly 20% to win. So you need to be getting roughly 5 to 1 to make this an even money play assuming that our Aces and Kings are outs and he only has a pair. But with the flush possible you might have to catch another diamond giving you 9 outs assuming thtat 2 of them are not already dead and he doesnt have the Ace. I dont think that calling here will be +ev.
#4
11-23-2007, 03:22 PM
 iheartponeez Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Where Brooklyn At? Posts: 597
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

I sometimes spite-call this flop raise, but it's just incorrect. Our outs are just Aces and Kings, and even those aren't sure outs (AJ and KJ are very much in the villain's range). If you are convinced your AK are good, you're calling 7 into about 40, but your odds to hit on the turn are a little more than 1-10. Seems bad, and calling definitely commits you.

On the turn, you have to call 11 into 50, so about 5-1, which which is approximately your flush odds, but it's still a bit lower than is correct, plus your flush might be dead to his A-high flush, so I can't call here either, I don't think.

If we step back and look at the whole hand from the flop, once he minraises, he's essentially pushing. From here it looks like you have to call his 7+his 11 stack, 18 dollars into a 50 dollar pot, with 6 outs, which may be possible iffy on all counts. No thank you.
#5
11-23-2007, 03:23 PM
 orlov Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 242
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

Assuming his flop check raise means I have atleast a pair and his vpip of 70 I guess we could assume following range on the flop:

AJ-J7
22-TT

I excluded lower jacks because his vpip doesnt mean he has the same high vpip for a raise. JJ/TT are excluded as pairs as they are in his ranging raise...

Stricly going with his bets meaning i have atleast a pair, nothing changes on the turn...

thus against that range we have an equity of

Board: 2c 7d Jd Td

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.934% 33.93% 00.00% 1299 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 66.066% 66.07% 00.00% 2529 0.00 { TT-22, J7s+, J7o+ }

Thus we should call the turn for sure.

Flop looks a bit different:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.753% 24.75% 00.00% 22790 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 75.247% 75.25% 00.00% 69280 0.00 { TT-22, J7s+, J7o+ }

But we are still getting good odds. Still opting towards a fold.

Issues with this however are that we dont know what check minraises mean and that we dont know with what he calls preflop raises, he might limp junk and fold it preflop, possibly shifting his range upwards to mayb j10+.

And he probably wont c/r flop with 33-66 and continue with them on the turn, making this more and more a fold.
#6
11-23-2007, 03:24 PM
 derosnec Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: mmmmm chickfila Posts: 6,159
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
His bets usually mean he's got a hand, but they do NOT indicate a monster. Think of his bets as meaning "I have at least a pair."

[/ QUOTE ]

um . . . my experience differs

anyways, turn call is probably neutral ev. could only have 7 flush outs and 4 queen outs, although none of those might be outs. we might have as many as 9 + 4 + 6 outs, but i doubt it since our overs might be no good. i'd say on average we have about 8 to 10 outs, which maks it barely neutral ev.
#7
11-23-2007, 03:32 PM
 z28dreams Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Donating at the tables Posts: 2,791
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:

J9,JT,QJ,KJ,AJ
87,76
Let's do all the pairs as well - 22-TT (even though pokey says sets aren't in his range, I think a c/r flop, shove turn could definitely put them in his range)

Now, it's only \$7 to call and the pot is 11.5+7+14=32.5
so we're getting about 4.64:1. This is pretty huge, and even with 2 overcards we can probably call. Let's run pokerstove against his range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.243% 25.24% 00.00% 37486 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 74.757% 74.76% 00.00% 111014 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

In this spot, we only need around 3:1 to call. (This is a number you should have committed to memory - overcards vs. a made pair needs around 3:1. Coincidentally, overpairs vs a lower 2 pair also have this same ratio.. i.e. AA vs 72 on a K72 board).

Turn: Well, we have a gutshot now, so we have a few more outs. Without pokerstoving this, my guess it's a pretty borderline call. ( 4.6:1 here ).

Using the same range as before, we now account for the turn T.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.438% 34.44% 00.00% 2182 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 65.562% 65.56% 00.00% 4154 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

So, we only need around 1.85:1 here.

So IMO, if your read is correct, yes, we can call both bets.
#8
11-23-2007, 03:32 PM
 bozzer Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: in with the 2p2 lingo Posts: 2,140
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

I'm going to give us 5 outs on the flop, to represent the chance he has better than a pair. 5 outs*2 = 10%

i'm assuming if we make a pair of kings or better we stack him.

i'm assuming we check the turn and we check back if we can.

i'm assuming we are behind.

i am assuming we don't usually have odds to call if he shoves turn.

our equity on the flop call is:

equity if we only see turn + implied equity + equity if we see river for free * chance we see the river for free = EV on the call.

equity if we only see turn: 0.1(\$39.50) - \$7 = -\$3.05

implied equity: 0.11*\$11 = +\$1.1

equity if we see the river for free = 0.1(\$39.5) = +\$3.95

chance we see the river for free = ???

solving at EV = 0 to find the chance we see the river for free (x) to have a breakeven call:

-3.05 + 1.1 + x(3.95) = 0

1.95 = -x(3.95)

1.95/3.95 = -x = 0.49

i've messed up a - somewhere but don't sweat it.

we need him to check the turn &gt;50% of the time to have a +EV call on the flop.

i vote that he checks turn less than a third of the time here.

edit: hmm i should probably have a chance we only see the turn = 1 - chance we see river term in there. that gives a different answer and makes a call more likely to be good. i wll correct later.
#9
11-23-2007, 04:01 PM
 buttonpusher Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: pushing various buttons Posts: 169
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

Getting ~ 4.5-1 on the flop, I think its close either way. Assuming our if an ace or king is good thats 6 outs, ~1 out for the runner straight/flush combo. So 7 outs at best with not much behind, like I said.. its close.

Having called the flop, calling on the turn is a for sure yes. 5-1 when a queen or diamond likely wins, and any ace or king might win.
#10
11-23-2007, 04:03 PM
 udbrky Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Having adventures 40 hrs/week Posts: 1,008
Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he has a 77% VPIP doesn't mean he's calling PFR with 77%. I'd guess more like 30%. That narrows his range to about half his limping hands.

You're getting 3.5:1 on the call of the c/r. If he only has a pair, and doesn't have an A or K kicker, calling is right, given the odds. On the turn, with 12 outs, getting almost 5:1, you're calling (about 4:1 to hit). Not to mention, he could have QJ.

I guess it depends on how much of his range is made up of naked one pairs vs. pair w/ A or K kicker, or 2-pair or sets. I don't see him bluffing on the flop.

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