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#11
11-21-2007, 03:26 AM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
I just put all my money basically in one stock: ESV. I figure it really cant get any cheaper than it currently is or the company will issue a massive share buyback. Regardless of how the market does.
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#13
11-21-2007, 02:26 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
Just some quick T/A on ESV Spino1i:
Firts of all...any reason why you would put your WHOLE portfolio at risk in ONE stock? From a T/A perspective.....I just took a quick look at some charts I am able to post...as MY trading software doesnt allow me to copy and paste links.I already knew it was in the oil drilling biz,but I am not up to date on its current fundamentals.it looks like its trying to TEST holding its recent lows.....but unless it HOLDS this recent test in the $52+ area....it looks like the next stop might/will be the $45 dollar range [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:s...ource=undefined However ...the 2 T/A positives ...are that "hanging man" candlestick LOW it made on August 16th that I treat as one of the more reliable candlestick patterns,and it is also currently EXTREMELY oversold on a S/T basis Also from a PURE contrarian POV..it is also due for some sort of decent bounce...again S/T http://www.traderslog.com/Hammer.htm If it holds that LOW...you should be OK at least short term,but I would keep a TIGHT leash on this IMO The market from the long side ....SUCKS right now. I hope you havnt been caught in the ole' averaging DOWN mentality....or PLEASE explain your thought process here and maybe I can help you out? GL, Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] Disclaimer: I have currently been short MANY equities...LONG bonds....and also holding a large percentage of CASH on the sidelines at this time.I "think/hope" we are near at least a S/T bottom,and would like to see some sort of capitulation type sell-off before going LONG....as currently EVERY decent rally is being sold into,as we are CONSTANTLY making lower lows each day. With market sentiment/bearishness at bigtime LOWS,as well as extreme PUT buying/short postions still being opened NOW..... a violent parabolic Santa Clause year end rally would not surprise me one bit either....esp for the various/obviously standard market manager related issues
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#14
11-21-2007, 04:57 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
dcifer where do you have your money right now?
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#17
11-21-2007, 07:36 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
[ QUOTE ]
Also, an important distinction that no ones made, a recession and a bear market are 2 completely different thin [/ QUOTE ] Great point Art!
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#18
11-21-2007, 08:11 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
[ QUOTE ]
Also, an important distinction that no ones made, a recession and a bear market are 2 completely different things. [/ QUOTE ] Beat me to the punch. Although I'll add, that stocks often do quite well during recession, IMO, because specialist can use a recession to move up prices without taking major hits to their inventories.
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#19
11-21-2007, 08:50 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Also, an important distinction that no ones made, a recession and a bear market are 2 completely different things. [/ QUOTE ] Beat me to the punch. Although I'll add, that stocks often do quite well during recession, IMO, because specialist can use a recession to move up prices without taking major hits to their inventories. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I dont understand? Stephen
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#20
11-21-2007, 09:33 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Also, an important distinction that no ones made, a recession and a bear market are 2 completely different things. [/ QUOTE ] Beat me to the punch. Although I'll add, that stocks often do quite well during recession, IMO, because specialist can use a recession to move up prices without taking major hits to their inventories. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I dont understand? Stephen [/ QUOTE ] In case you're not familiar with Richard Ney, he was a very successful investment advisor who wrote a few books in the '70s, in which he goes into great detail about the Specialist system. He describes Specialists as merchants with a unique inventory problem: they have to get their product back from their customers. He says that Specialists buy their product (stocks) at wholesale, then, CREATE demand by raising the price, selling and short selling at the top (retail), then, dropping the price to where they can buy and buy to cover at wholesale, then, repeat the process. His investment approach is simple: Buy when the Specialists are buying and sell when they are selling. Of course, it's easier said than done. But, the point is that a recession is a good opportunity for a Specialist to move his merch from wholesale to retail without too much of it getting picked off because the public is wary about getting into the market during bad economic times. When the recession ends, the optimistic public jumps back into the market just in time for the Specialists to pull the rug out. I was recently on the NYSE page, they sell a service in which you can track Specialist sales. The service costs $3000 a month. So, chances are that Ney was on to something.
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