Flop decision: what now??

[Edukashun]

I'd fold it PF I'm not good enough postflop yet.

If I somehow got to the flop I'd be feeling out my depth.

Pokerstoving it we're in good shape aginst the range I first said but the more nut flush draws CO calls with the worse it gets.
I think there's still enough in the pot to call but I'd never get there.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is boring. What would you do if you had Kd7d.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's still a call even with T7d.

[hagum]

Instacall!

[Pokey]

The forum overwhelmingly favors a call, and I think that's the right decision. Considering the ranges for the villains and considering the pot conditions right now, I think I'm safely +EV with a call.

Followup question:

[NL Newbie]

These questions i find kind of strange, i see no real value to them other than theory but ok.

If CO folds, he clearly didn't have a big hand which means my equity is awesome in this pot 3way.

If CO calls, he has a good hand and my equity still isnt bad.

He obv isnt folding a set, so i dunno why us wanting him to call or fold makes any real life difference hence i dont see why these questions really arise. Maybe someone can explain their benifit?

If he has good equity, i want him to fold and forfit his % of the pot which means i get more. Sets have good equity, is he folding? No.

[wingchunflush]

I just have to say one thing.

Pokey for PREZ. Your posts are always insightful man thanks for doing them.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

These questions i find kind of strange, i see no real value to them other than theory but ok.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think this is a very important question in general (though not so much so in this exact example):

1. If we know why we are making a play, then we learn more about what results we want to see.
2. If we know the results we want to see, then we learn more about how we can go about making them happen.

In this case it's irrelevant, since we're all-in if we call. However, in a more general case when we're deciding how to play with money still behind, we can be choosing between smooth-calling (to get overcallers, if that's what we want) or reraising all-in (to isolate, if that's what we want).

I could just as easily have phrased it differently: "is this a hand that plays better multi-way or heads-up?" Knowing the answer is the first step towards playing our hands correctly in general.

[kaz2107]

pretty sure we want CO to call since it will give us better pot odds and both draws we have are to the essential nuts. obv if he calls with a set or 2 pair it kinda sux i think we will still b fine and gain more money.

[kolotoure]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure we want CO to call since it will give us better pot odds and both draws we have are to the essential nuts. obv if he calls with a set or 2 pair it kinda sux i think we will still b fine and gain more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

[z28dreams]

To answer the followup question:

Since we already put villains on a hand range with equities, this is just a simple math problem now.

Here were my ranges:
Hand 0: 48.143% 46.41% 01.73% 528079 19687.00 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 17.337% 16.88% 00.46% 192044 5215.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 34.519% 32.79% 01.73% 373068 19687.00 { TT-44, 87s, 65s, 54s, 87o, 65o, 54o }

If CO calls, the pot will be roughly $315. Our expected value here is .46(315) = $144

If CO folds, the pot will be roughly $229 and it's 2-ways. We'll have to rerun pokerstove to see our new equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.599% 49.24% 01.36% 10236 283.50 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 49.401% 48.04% 01.36% 9987 283.50 { JJ+ }

Here we have around 50.5% equity, so .505(229) = $115

Looks like it's better if CO calls.