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View Poll Results: AKs
Yes 8 50.00%
No 8 50.00%
Voters: 16. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 09-24-2007, 07:37 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Default Flop decision: what now??

<font color="blue">While this hand is from a higher-stakes game than you're used to playing, I'll give you the setup so that you can think it through the way I did.

The table is interesting. UTG (the guy on my immediate right) is a complete imbecile: over a bit more than 400 hands, he's running 51/9 preflop and 1.7 postflop. He's also losing money at about $1 per hand, so he's not exactly doing a great job of it. The rest of the table is made up of decently good players with TAG or sLAG stats: all have VPIPs under 30, all have PFR's over 10, all are gunning for the guy on my right. Of course, I've got the best position in the house....

I sat down at the table fifteen minutes ago. I've gotten involved in very few hands. I've been caught stealing once in a blind-vs-blind situation but I only lost a little cash in the process. I haven't been involved in any serious shakeups yet.</font>

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $115.10
BB: $135.50
UTG: $104.65
Pokey (MP): $104.45
CO: $105.50
BTN: $104.40

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.00</font>, Pokey calls $2.00, CO calls $2.00, 3 folds

<font color="blue">People aren't really reraising much on this table; I think they're holding out for better implied odds against UTG since he seems so bad at the game, and also trying to keep pots small when he's folded.

Against his raising range I'm probably behind, so a reraise would be imprudent. However, the implied odds are absolutely gorgeous here, so I'm willing to limp it. If I get a three-bet behind me I'll have to dump the hand, but sometimes you've got to gamble, right?</font>

Flop: ($7.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Pokey bets $4.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $17.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $102.65</font>, Pokey has a decision to make.

<font color="blue">An absolutely glorious flop for me: I've got the nut flush draw, the open-ended straight draw, and two overcards to the board. The preflop raiser checks, so I make a smallish bet to try and build a pot and disguise my hand for if-and-when I hit. CO (a decent TAG who runs 18/13 preflop and has a postflop aggression of nearly 5) makes a nearly pot-sized reraise to $17. UTG now wakes up and -- after checking the flop -- three-bets all-in. It's almost $100 to me, the pot has almost $130 in it, I'm all-in if I call, and there's still a player to act behind me who also has me covered. What to do, what to do?</font>

NOTE: your answer to the poll is basically unimportant, other than for idle curiosity. Much more interesting and important will be your reasoning why.
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  #2  
Old 09-24-2007, 07:44 PM
wingchunflush wingchunflush is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

Hmmm I might be off here but you called preflop to hit a flop like this. I think that if you don't call here you shouldn't be playing hands like this preflop. I call happily here. Worst case scenario he has 78 and we still have 9 outs for the flush. I call here
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  #3  
Old 09-24-2007, 07:47 PM
kevin017 kevin017 is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

i'm calling expecting to be ahead of UTG's overpair and worrying about CO having hit a set but hoping he had some sort of overpair as well.
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  #4  
Old 09-24-2007, 07:47 PM
mookboi mookboi is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

This is an insta-call in my opinion. I mean, we have an awesome combo draw. We have 9 outs to the nuts with the flush, as well as 6 other outs to a straight, which is likely to be the best hand. So with 15 outs, we are way ahead of his range. Even if he got 78 or a set, which is pretty much the worst case scenario, we are 40/60 here. With the dead money in the pot + the possibility of CO coming along, this is a no brainer call for me.

CO's range IMO here includes any 2 diamond overcards (KQ, KJ, etc), small overpairs 88-JJ, sets, straights, and lots of lesser combo draws of some sort. UTG could literally have anything. I mean, from AA to A4, to like 65, but as I stated above, it doesn't really matter, because he shoves this with so many hands that we are lightyears ahead of him.

The absolute worst case scenario IMO, if one of them has a set and the other a straight with 87, we are 28% according to PokerStove.

I get it in without even blinking.
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  #5  
Old 09-24-2007, 07:56 PM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

I probably call based on the idea that CO could just have an overpair and UTG could be making a frustration push after losing 4 buy-ins so far. Under those circumstances, our outs situation is actually better, rather than worse, than it appears.

Of course, I would meanwhile be worried that UTG flopped the set or straight his play represents and CO will fold. But even HU against a guy with 87, a call isn't that unprofitable. (Calling HU against UTG's 8c7c is only about a $8 mistake, unless I did the math wrong.)
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  #6  
Old 09-24-2007, 07:58 PM
Snafu'd Snafu'd is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

Easy call imo. UTG's line looks like what a donk does with JJ+ so I think you need not worry to much about a set from him. However, CO's range does include pocket pairs that either hit a set or created a redraw, but you also have to include a few flush draws and straight draws which you are ahead of (eg. 8d9d, KdQd, etc). Assuming these as reasonable ranges for your opponents, you have more than enough equity to get it all in.
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  #7  
Old 09-24-2007, 08:04 PM
kaz2107 kaz2107 is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

given how bad u describe villian here i am calling. not to mention we also could get it all in on the flop with loads of equity against 2 people with 2 draws to the nutz basically. worse case one or both villians have the nut straight and we have 8 outs to win and 2 outs to tie.
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  #8  
Old 09-24-2007, 09:44 PM
z28dreams z28dreams is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

Here are my thoughts. Mind you, I'm not a solid player yet, but a few things I think we can sort out:

PREFLOP:
-----------------

(1) Villain has a PFR of 9%. Given that he raised UTG, he has a pretty strong hand here. I'd put his range on something like 77+ for pairs, and maybe AK,AQ,AJs...something like that.

(2) CO from your description is solid. UTG raises, you call, and he OVERCALLS. While CO might normally want to get trappy against UTG with a big overpair (JJ+), with your cold call I think he'd definitely raise here. For me, this now puts CO on the a pretty wide range - any pocket pair (22+), suited connectors (54s+), and probably any 2 suited broadways (KJs, etc).

Flop: Let's narrow down the ranges now given the action:
-------------------
- UTG maniac checkraises. We would think an overpair would just bet this flop, but given his description a c/r makes more sense. In addition, it's unlikely that he hit a set or 2 pair given the low cards on the board. As played, I'm putting UTG on JJ+. Maybe even TT+. AK/AQ/AJs are unlikely because we hold the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
- CO raises our flop bet. Given preflop action, I don't think he has QQ,KK, or AA - he would have re-raised. He may have just called with JJ, not really sure. I'd say CO's range here is the widest of the bunch, and obviously good enough to raise. I'd put him on 44,55,66,65,54,87,77-TT.

So, let's pokerstove this b*tch given my flop ranges. The general idea before even running the numbers: we know that we're a slight favorite vs. an overpair, and around 1:1 vs. CO with a wide range (2pairr+sets+a few overs). If you take away 77-TT for a worst case scenario(only sets,2pr,straight), we're still only a 55/45 dog, which needs 1.2:1. Therefore, getting 1.3:1 should be enough. We can easily put CO on 2pair as often as he is on a set.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.143% 46.41% 01.73% 528079 19687.00 { Ad7d }
Hand 1: 17.337% 16.88% 00.46% 192044 5215.00 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 34.519% 32.79% 01.73% 373068 19687.00 { TT-44, 87s, 65s, 54s, 87o, 65o, 54o }

So, we're looking at about 48% equity in this pot. We're getting slightly better (1.3:1), so I call. It really sucks having CO behind us though, because if we take 88-TT out of his range, we lose a ton of equity.

Even w/o these #'s, gamboooooool it up right?

z28's no-brain quick call tip:
OESFD vs. made set - usually around 60/40, 1.5:1. If you can include 2 pairs in the range, we easily hit the 1.3:1 odds we are being offered. That's my quick-and-dirty call reason here. It's reasons like this you need to know race odds.
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  #9  
Old 09-24-2007, 10:35 PM
Xanta Xanta is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

z28, pretty much a sweet post except for your UTG preflop range. A 51/9 is not positionally aware and half the time that they raise preflop it's just garbage. Just taking the top 9% of their hands is a mistake. That's what makes preflop such an easy call.
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  #10  
Old 09-24-2007, 10:39 PM
Khumalo Khumalo is offline
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Default Re: Flop decision: what now??

Yes to z28's analysis. My first-hand impression of UTG's range (given Pokey's description) is definitely weighted towards big pairs he's min-raising UTG to 'lure people in.' We have an A so AA is combinatorically less likely but still, his stats, profile, and pf to post-flop line strongly suggest {JJ+}. The rest of z28's analysis I will let speak for itself and endorse fully.
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