K Jack off

[MrWookie]

If the board was instead A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we'd know UTG has the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] fully 2/3 of the time. Instead, we know for a fact he doesn't have it. Much better, right? This would be on TOP of the possibility that the other guys have the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which would imply we're drawing to very nearly 3 outs only. Instead, we only have to deal with the chances of the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the hands of the other guys. We're not 100% happy if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls, but we're better off than in my scenario.

[JerBear77]

[ QUOTE ]
If the board was instead A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we'd know UTG has the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] fully 2/3 of the time. Instead, we know for a fact he doesn't have it. Much better, right? This would be on TOP of the possibility that the other guys have the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which would imply we're drawing to very nearly 3 outs only. Instead, we only have to deal with the chances of the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the hands of the other guys. We're not 100% happy if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls, but we're better off than in my scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense, so if im understanding this correctly were not in good shape but not terrible....I think a fold in this spot wouldn't be awful, but its probably a little better to call here.

[MrWookie]

We're not often against a flush, so our 3 non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T outs are good almost every time. This is only a fold if you assume that [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s are not ever outs and that someone out there has a flush a good percentage of the time.

[JerBear77]

[ QUOTE ]
We're not often against a flush, so our 3 non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T outs are good almost every time. This is only a fold if you assume that [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s are not ever outs and that someone out there has a flush a good percentage of the time.

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nh [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Montrealcorp]

i serioulsy have doubts about calling turn for those reasons:
1.the pot is NOT that big but more closely to medium.
2.nvm about the utg raiser about the OTHER 2,u think there in with what ?pair of 5?
one of them as surely at least has a big flush draw or a straight draw or simply have already a straight or flush but not raising cause they afraid some one might already have a bigger flush!
3.U might already drawing dead for the gutshot and if not someone has set and maybe another 1 has 2 pairs giving them good chance to hit full house
4.its only 11-1 to you when like i already said upthere u might be drawing dead already ,
big chance to be draw out on river,this is not heads up,there 3 others players in there.gut shot= 10-1 wich might not even be good and the flush draw is exactly the same thing and can be draw out by fullhouse!
I would need a lot more odds to call this.
5.somone might sandbanging already and wait river to bet pretty hard since he knows everyone will call on the end with a large pot after he raises(not likely but still)
6.i know it might not be an automatic answer but ususally: its 3/6 not .25/.50..they problaby have something and not chasing weak draws..
7.if u win....might even be split pot for the straight !!!

for me its a fold!
i wouod need at least like 15-1 and even so be very hesitant and would call on a "wishfull thinking"!

[fretelöo]

cliffnotes: We have top set, nut flush and top straight against us. Fold pf. You should have known you're drawing dead before investing any money in the pot. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


[ QUOTE ]
i serioulsy have doubts about calling turn for those reasons:
1.the pot is NOT that big but more closely to medium.
2.nvm about the utg raiser about the OTHER 2,u think there in with what ?pair of 5?
one of them as surely at least has a big flush draw or a straight draw or simply have already a straight or flush but not raising cause they afraid some one might already have a bigger flush!
3.U might already drawing dead for the gutshot and if not someone has set and maybe another 1 has 2 pairs giving them good chance to hit full house
4.its only 11-1 to you when like i already said upthere u might be drawing dead already ,
big chance to be draw out on river,this is not heads up,there 3 others players in there.gut shot= 10-1 wich might not even be good and the flush draw is exactly the same thing and can be draw out by fullhouse!
I would need a lot more odds to call this.
5.somone might sandbanging already and wait river to bet pretty hard since he knows everyone will call on the end with a large pot after he raises(not likely but still)
6.i know it might not be an automatic answer but ususally: its 3/6 not .25/.50..they problaby have something and not chasing weak draws..
7.if u win....might even be split pot for the straight !!!

for me its a fold!
i wouod need at least like 15-1 and even so be very hesitant and would call on a "wishfull thinking"!

[/ QUOTE ]

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
1.the pot is NOT that big but more closely to medium.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you blind? This pot is 12 BB on the turn and there's still four players in. That's big with a likely possibility of even more bigness.


[ QUOTE ]
2.nvm about the utg raiser about the OTHER 2,u think there in with what ?pair of 5?
one of them as surely at least has a big flush draw or a straight draw or simply have already a straight or flush but not raising cause they afraid some one might already have a bigger flush!

[/ QUOTE ]
There is no straight possible. On the turn, yeah, somebody may be sandbagging a flush, but "may be" is no reason to fold.


[ QUOTE ]
3.U might already drawing dead for the gutshot and if not someone has set and maybe another 1 has 2 pairs giving them good chance to hit full house
4.its only 11-1 to you when like i already said upthere u might be drawing dead already ,
big chance to be draw out on river,this is not heads up,there 3 others players in there.gut shot= 10-1 wich might not even be good and the flush draw is exactly the same thing and can be draw out by fullhouse!
I would need a lot more odds to call this.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not 11-1 to us.

The only way we're drawing dead is if someone has a made flush. Given the action, it's unlikely, but possible.

Dude, it's the turn. If we hit our hand, there will be no full house unless there's a sixth street I'm not aware of or unless the river is specifically Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and someone has a set or two pair.


[ QUOTE ]
i wouod need at least like 15-1

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You realize it's basically 15-1 to us on the turn?

[Montrealcorp]

marchon do u consider 8.5 BB on the turn a big pot?
if not i dont get your logic,the pot is at 11.66,how can u say 11.66 is like 15 but not saying 8.5
BB is same thing as 11.66....
For me 15 BB is far away from 11.66 when theres tons of redraw out there

around 12 BB is not that big when u draw , i mean comon if there were no flush draw out there fine ,it would make sense to call for the gut shot(10-1) but it isnt so u need lot more then 1.66BB to call for the gutshot to compensate for the chance of drawing dead!

true there is no straight yet but its possible there is right? so again migth have a chance split pot,u need better odds,

as said earlier what u think the other 2 have???surely 1 has a set(wich is the A or not doesnt matter)might even have 2 person with sets here or 2 pair, increasing the full house draw dramatically.

your quote:The only way we're drawing dead is if someone has a made flush. Given the action, it's unlikely, but possible.


sorry but: anyone having the Q or the K makes u draw dead and u might be already dead with anyone having a flush to cancel your straight.

Even so ,we dont even count the likelyhood of a full house draw canceling all the hand u might hit(straight or flush).

might not be relevnt but i m pretty sure at 3/6 they have big cards or set ,making the Q or K almost a guaranteed of being outthere,especially if u considered this pot to be big,they surely has someone out there who think so and would call on backdoor flush draw!!

finally,your the first one to act!! u call turn and w/e happens on the river, if big hands are out there i guaranteed it wont be 1 BB bet to call on river when u check,probably some raise will take place,would u call with only your Jclubs when the utg bet ,somone raise behind w/o knowing what the utg raiser will do,calling or still reraising agin with your J
high flush??
i wouldnt put 2 or 3 BB(wich the odd u had on turn just got caught in half) on the end with my little J flush for sure!!

[MrWookie]

Montreal,

I don't know where you're getting 8.5 BB. The post clearly indicates that the pot is 11.66 BB at the start of the turn. At the point of our decision, the pot is about 15 BB.

[Montrealcorp]

totally true my mistake,im new here,, yup i read 11.66 but thought 11.66 included the action on turn ,my mistake
its a call but like i said earlier a really thin "wishfull" thinking" and if the T clubs comes out i would check fold if any raise takes place.
my reasoning is this: u have 3 out not 4,im pretty sure the T of clubs is totally bogus!

i say barely and wishfull thinking cause with 3 players oput there the chance of a small flush already might be outhere!
3 outs = 14.3-1 on river,14.3 is if u re sure u have the nuts wish you are far away from sure in my opinion

so yes a call for sure at around 20-1 but 15-1 a very thin call

ps: about the 8.5 BB ,i tought(my mistake) he was saying 15 BB is close to 11.66 wish was making me said if 11.66 is close to 15BB then 8.5 BB is close to 11.66 not making this pot a big one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] sorry lol