nl100 99 3way flop

[bottomset]

new to the table, no reads

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 7 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<u>SB: $106</u>
BB: $24
UTG: $20.35
UTG+1: $87.35
MP: $57.85
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $100.80</font>
<u>BTN: $44.25</u>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($11.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $24</font>, SB calls $24, Hero???

what's my plan here?

BTN only has ~17 left

BTN likely has some sort of 1pair hand hand, given the timing of SB's call its likely he has a draw, possibly a big hand like a set that he decided to c/c before the action got to him

most draws have a ton of outs here though

[Vegetarian]

Insta folds.

[Mr_Donktastic]

It looks like BTN could have you beat imo, and SB likely has a draw. However there is chance that SB is slowplaying a big hand. If you push you have to figure that you are probably donating $24 to the BTN and flipping for the rest of the your stack with the SB....is it worth it? Probably not.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like BTN could have you beat imo, and SB likely has a draw. However there is chance that SB is slowplaying a big hand. If you push you have to figure that you are probably donating $24 to the BTN and flipping for the rest of the your stack with the SB....is it worth it? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

how about that button in the middle? I am closing the action

the timing on SB's call is the "I have a draw" tell which tends to be very accurate, I'm not ruling out a big hand, but I'd estimate its more likely he's drawing, potentially to 15outs

the trick is deducing which semi-scary cards on the turn(non-flush) big cards hit him and which missed, I think the pot is fairly well protected so he won't donk shove semi-bluff very often

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It looks like BTN could have you beat imo, and SB likely has a draw. However there is chance that SB is slowplaying a big hand. If you push you have to figure that you are probably donating $24 to the BTN and flipping for the rest of the your stack with the SB....is it worth it? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

how about that button in the middle? I am closing the action

the timing on SB's call is the "I have a draw" tell which tends to be very accurate

the trick is deducing which semi-scary cards on the turn(non-flush) big cards hit him and which missed, I think the pot is fairly well protected so he won't donk shove semi-bluff very often

[/ QUOTE ]

i think its OK to call but its very very thin since SB prob has more outs vs you than he thinks. im not rly worried about the 1/2 stack at all.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It looks like BTN could have you beat imo, and SB likely has a draw. However there is chance that SB is slowplaying a big hand. If you push you have to figure that you are probably donating $24 to the BTN and flipping for the rest of the your stack with the SB....is it worth it? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

how about that button in the middle? I am closing the action

the timing on SB's call is the "I have a draw" tell which tends to be very accurate

the trick is deducing which semi-scary cards on the turn(non-flush) big cards hit him and which missed, I think the pot is fairly well protected so he won't donk shove semi-bluff very often

[/ QUOTE ]

i think its OK to call but its very very thin since SB prob has more outs vs you than he thinks. im not rly worried about the 1/2 stack at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah the offsuit T-A can all be bad, even though SB might not feel good about hitting one, especially a T or J .. but if he has a FD and hits a pair he's not folding obv

the trick is only 2 of the 5overcards actually are bad, the other 3 are bricks(SB, sometimes 3 of the 5 are bad)

all the offsuit cards 2-9(only 1 great 9, the other is mixed blessing) are likely safe vs SB, BTN will improve on some of the occasionally, but I can counteract that somewhat getting ~70 in vs SB drawing around 30%

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
It looks like BTN could have you beat imo, and SB likely has a draw. However there is chance that SB is slowplaying a big hand. If you push you have to figure that you are probably donating $24 to the BTN and flipping for the rest of the your stack with the SB....is it worth it? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

how about that button in the middle? I am closing the action

the timing on SB's call is the "I have a draw" tell which tends to be very accurate

the trick is deducing which semi-scary cards on the turn(non-flush) big cards hit him and which missed, I think the pot is fairly well protected so he won't donk shove semi-bluff very often

[/ QUOTE ]

i think its OK to call but its very very thin since SB prob has more outs vs you than he thinks. im not rly worried about the 1/2 stack at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah the offsuit T-A can all be bad, even though SB might not feel good about hitting one, especially a T or J .. but if he has a FD and hits a pair he's not folding obv

the trick is only 2 of the 5overcards actually are bad, the other 3 are bricks(SB, sometimes 3 of the 5 are bad)

all the offsuit cards 2-9(only 1 great 9, the other is mixed blessing) are likely safe vs SB, BTN will improve on some of the occasionally, but I can counteract that somewhat getting ~70 in vs SB drawing around 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're shoving a blank turn? overcard turn?

[nhl94god]

i think its a easy fold, button only has 17$ left and that is 100% getting in there on the turn. Have you played w/ the SB ever? With him cold calling here he either has a big hand and wants u to raise thinking hes drawing, or has a good draw. By calling the flop re raise i think its just spewing chips, there are so many scare cards to come on the turn that i think its easier to just fold the flop and find a better spot.

[bottomset]

I think its a pretty easy shove on a blank turn, the overcard ones are the ones I'm hung up on, A and K scare me the most and I think I would prefer just checking it down with all of them, not sure how likely that happens(by checking down I mean not put more in than what BTN has left)

[ QUOTE ]
With him cold calling here he either has a big hand and wants u to raise thinking hes drawing, or has a good draw

[/ QUOTE ]

again the speed of the call suggests he has a draw nearly always, when someone has a set they will likely think about the other options briefly before deciding, also there aren't that many combos of sets possible, and he would have basically had to decide to c/c all bets before the action got back to him

[Vegetarian]

The things is the button has 2 cards as well and they could very well be better than yours.