***yankees official offseason thread*****

[DesertCat]

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http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...p;sportCat=mlb

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He makes great points but ignores the central question, what will A-Rod be worth? And people are so results oriented.

Giambi was a great hitter who used steriods but got hurt, so he must not be a great hitter without them and must have got hurt because of them.

A-rod never got hurt from ages 19-31 so he won't get hurt from ages 32-41.

He never declined from ages 19-31 (except for his defense) so he won't decline much during ages 31-42.

We have never seen A-Rod use steriods so he must be all natural.

Baseball history is full of superstar players who suddenly fell off the map in their early thirties, both pre and post steriods eras.

I don't object to paying A-Rod even $30m per year. I object to the ten year contract, I think he'd be the best possible signing on a seven year deal.

Remember the Yankees have to pay luxury tax on this contract so he will actually cost 40% more. If luxury tax changes in the next ten years and goes dollar for dollar, A-rod could end up costing $60m per year and force the Yankees to deal more valuable players because he could be immovable at that age. Its a small risk in any one year, but when the yankees guarantee a deal for that long those risks become significant. If they do it Cashman would need to negotiate out clauses to minimize these risks.

[CharlieDontSurf]

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The yankees can spend the money almost as effectively now

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This is where we have the disconnect. I don't see how the Yankees can spend $25MM-$35MM for the near future as effectively as they can on A-Rod.

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These are my thoughts, condensed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Lowell + Hunter will cost about $30m per year. Lowell better defense offsets some of the lost offense, Hunters better defense and offense over Melky gives you the rest. And you can sign Lowell for four years and Hunter for probably five or six, giving you much less risk and more flexibility, i.e. More than $100m remaining to spend on another free agent like Santana during A-Rods least valuable years. Plus you the get A draft picks for A-Rod and can use Melky as trade bait.

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Or u can sign Arod n then sign Santana and then sign whoever else u want. Lowell in 3 or 4 years in Yankee stadium would be godawful

Melky > than Hunter over the next 4 or 5 years

[Karak567]

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very strong rumors from a couple different sources that a-rod will sign for 280 10 years with incentives to make it 325

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what sources? team? league? agents?

yes, the numbers are a bit higher than i expected. i also think the market even for $250M/10yr is just not there. why would the yankees offer more than that?

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si.com had the 280/10 yrs with 300+ incentive figure

another board who apparently has an "inside source" (i always doubt those) said the same thing hours before the si.com story broke though

from rotoworld:

According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, Alex Rodriguez will likely be guaranteed about $280 million over 10 years from the Yankees, with the chance to go over $300 million through incentives.

Heyman says agent Scott Boras is in intense negotiations with the Yankees to complete the deal. We suppose anything is possible with these two parties involved, but it seems highly unlikely that a deal will fall through at this stage.

also, via newsday... the "third party" was hitting coach kevin long:

Steinbrenner said the Yankees recently received a message from Rodriguez "from a third party" that he wanted to speak with them directly, a distinct change in his strategy from just a few weeks ago.

The Yankees, however, have known for a while that A-Rod still hoped to be in pinstripes. Hitting coach Kevin Long, who is tight with Rodriguez, said Wednesday night that he told general manager Brian Cashman during his own contract negotiations two weeks ago that Rodriguez wanted to return.

Here's how the conversation went, according to Long:

Cashman: "Kev, we made our offer and they shut us down."

Long: "I still think Alex would love to be a Yankee."

Cashman: "I don't get it."

Long: "Well, I just know how much he wants to be a Yankee and I know how much that you have expressed that you want him back. If that's the case, then certainly you should both still be talking about it."

Cashman didn't return a message Wednesday.

When Long heard the news Wednesday, he said he sent Rodriguez a text message saying, "If this is true, you're going to have an awfully happy hitting coach if this happens. He replied, 'Well, we're working on it.' "

[mo42nyy]

lol at incentives on a 300 million dollar contract


DC- i agree 100 precent
7 years 210 mil i have no problem with
39-42 year old arod at 30 mil a year will be bad (contrct wise)at best

[Rubeskies]

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lol at incentives on a 300 million dollar contract


DC- i agree 100 precent
7 years 210 mil i have no problem with
39-42 year old arod at 30 mil a year will be bad (contrct wise)at best

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Look at the Yankees this year.

Giambi: worthless, 22mil
Damon: 4th OFer, 14 mil
Pavano: Absent, 10 mil
Moose: below average, 11.5 mil
Farnsworth, average, 5.5 mil
Igawa, worthless, 4 mil


And they still made the playoffs with all of this expensive trash on their team. If they make smarter decisions in the future, the A-Rod contract will not even be an issue let alone a major problem.

[CharlieDontSurf]

The only thing I would is why they would offer 10 years when obv no one else can match anything the Yanks offer.

[Rubeskies]

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The only thing I would is why they would offer 10 years when obv no one else can match anything the Yanks offer.

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They want him to be a Yankee when he breaks the HR record.

[rwperu34]

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The yankees can spend the money almost as effectively now

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This is where we have the disconnect. I don't see how the Yankees can spend $25MM-$35MM for the near future as effectively as they can on A-Rod.

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These are my thoughts, condensed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Lowell + Hunter will cost about $30m per year. Lowell better defense offsets some of the lost offense, Hunters better defense and offense over Melky gives you the rest. And you can sign Lowell for four years and Hunter for probably five or six, giving you much less risk and more flexibility, i.e. More than $100m remaining to spend on another free agent like Santana during A-Rods least valuable years. Plus you the get A draft picks for A-Rod and can use Melky as trade bait.

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FOr 29 other teams, this is sound reasoning. For the Yankees, there is nothing to preclude them from signing A-Rod AND Hunter. Then they could either trade Melky or let him be the 4th OF. That would make Damon the most expenisive 5th OF in baseball, and the Yankees would still have monies left over to trade for/sign Santana in 2007/2008 AND Miguel Cabrera 2008/2009!

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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The only thing I would is why they would offer 10 years when obv no one else can match anything the Yanks offer.

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They want him to be a Yankee when he breaks the HR record.

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there would be nothing from stopping them from signing him to a 7 year deal, then resigning him to 1 year deals (ala Bonds) IF he is threatening to break the record. they have more money than everyone else now, and will in 7 years as well

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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The yankees can spend the money almost as effectively now

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This is where we have the disconnect. I don't see how the Yankees can spend $25MM-$35MM for the near future as effectively as they can on A-Rod.

[/ QUOTE ]
These are my thoughts, condensed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Lowell + Hunter will cost about $30m per year. Lowell better defense offsets some of the lost offense, Hunters better defense and offense over Melky gives you the rest. And you can sign Lowell for four years and Hunter for probably five or six, giving you much less risk and more flexibility, i.e. More than $100m remaining to spend on another free agent like Santana during A-Rods least valuable years. Plus you the get A draft picks for A-Rod and can use Melky as trade bait.

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FOr 29 other teams, this is sound reasoning. For the Yankees, there is nothing to preclude them from signing A-Rod AND Hunter. Then they could either trade Melky or let him be the 4th OF. That would make Damon the most expenisive 5th OF in baseball, and the Yankees would still have monies left over to trade for/sign Santana in 2007/2008 AND Miguel Cabrera 2008/2009!

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this presumes the Yankees have unlimited monies, and that Hank/Hal have the same appetite/willingness to spend these monies as George did.

I'm not sure both of those are true. here is the Yankee opening day payroll since 2000

2000 $93 million
2001 $112 million
2002 $126 million
2003 $152 million
2004 $182 million
2005 $208 million
2006 $198 million
2007 $195 million

so after doubling from 2000 to 2004, they've been very stable, basically increasing at the same rate as inflation. perhaps after huge luxury tax bills, they've hit a ceiling.

now, the new stadium will indeed change that - I've read estimated of $50m PA in incremental revenue. but that still doesn't give them all the money in the world to throw around; it appears there is some limit and they are close to it

on top of this, you have new ownership who may just be to content to roll in the money they have and not be aggressive.