($27) JJ against LAGG 2nd stack

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were something like 26/20. I have no fold equity here, but can I let this go?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t2610)
MP1 (t1930)
MP2 (t2835)
CO (t895)
Button (t1085)
SB (t610)
BB (t2255)
UTG (t1280)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J, J.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t1200</font>, Hero ????

[cha59]

I happily shove. Then when he turns over KK I'm not as happy.

Seriously though, I think against a LAG with #s like that I think shoving JJ is the only play.

[ger664]

Against a lag even with no FE you only need ~50% here. I shove this spot with your read, and you will have some FE even if its small it benefits you as well.

[Little John]

i dont mind a fold at all. 26/20 is not that lag. he pretty much has told you he has TT+ AQ+. i can't see him having 88 or AJ very often after rerasing more than half his stack.

[RPatterson67]

26/20 is lag?

[taipan168]

I think I can answer my own question here.

- If I fold I will have 2310 chips worth 16.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I will have 4915 chips worth 29.9% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I will have 355 chips worth 3.1% of the prize pool

Therefore, assuming that opp calls 100% of the time I need to be 51.1% to win against opp's range to make this a good shove over. Against say 99+, AQ+ I'm about 48% to win so have to fold this.

This assumes that opp never ever folds here. Even if he folded 5-10% of the time it would make a big difference. Thoughts?

[Little John]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I can answer my own question here.

- If I fold I will have 2310 chips worth 16.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I will have 4915 chips worth 29.9% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I will have 355 chips worth 3.1% of the prize pool

Therefore, assuming that opp calls 100% of the time I need to be 51.1% to win against opp's range to make this a good shove over. Against say 99+, AQ+ I'm about 48% to win so have to fold this.

This assumes that opp never ever folds here. Even if he folded 5-10% of the time it would make a big difference. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm pretty sure opponent folds 0% of the time. and AQ 99 may or may not be in his range.

[JLaw]

You opened 4 off the button -- ISTM that the villain has to give you credit for a reasonable hand (unless he's not paying any attention to your play) and yet he choose to come over the top. I can't see a 26/20 doing that too liberally. Remember, he's re-raising, so you should expect to see a much narrower range of hands than he'll open with. I'd hazard TT+, AK, maybe AQ with a few others thrown in occasionally depending on his mood/phase of the moon.

By reraising half his stack, he's effectively committed to a showdown -- so you're going to have to show down the best hand. If you call, he can easily push any flop. If you push back, he's going to call.

Probably the only hand in his range you're crushing would be TT. You're behind to QQ, KK, AA, and racing AK, AQ. Overall, I think you're behind. Do you want to get all-in behind at this stage in the tourney?

If you fold, you've still got 2k, yes the blinds hit you momentarily, but you've still got plenty of chips to fight another day.

Seems like a fold to me, but maybe I'm too weak-tight at this stage.

Jeff

[Schmitty 87]

No I completely agree 26/20 isn't nearly crazy enough for us the put the rest in. We have way too many chips to hope he has 1010 or some random hand and throw it in. I think AA-TT AK-AQ is an accurate range and vs. that it's an easy fold.