$2 NL -- Variance Question (Hands Posted)

Rookcifer · #1 10-05-2007, 01:33 AM

I am losing, sadly, at NL $2 which is embarrassing as hell, but I just don't know what to do to change it. I am careful to get my money in when there is a 90%+ chance I have the best of it. Lately I have been getting hammered and I will post a few more hands here to A) vent and bitch a little and B) to let you guys see if this was bad luck or bad play.

I know the definition of a bad beat, but it seems like it has happened WAY more recently than it used to, and I wonder if my game is just shoddy or if I am seeing my first glimpse of "variance." I would like someone to elaborate on variance and how long these periods can last.

Now for the hands:

#1 (There is no better starting hand, I got my money in. Was I wrong for doing this?)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($0.74)
UTG ($6.87)
UTG+1 ($1.96)
Hero ($1.96)
MP2 ($1.25)
CO ($6.37)
Button ($4.64)
SB ($2.94)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, 1 fold, CO raises to $0.3, 2 folds, BB calls $0.28, Hero raises to $1.96, CO calls $1.66, BB calls $0.44 (All-In).

Flop: ($2.23) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($2.23) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($2.23) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $4.67

Results in white below: 
BB has Ah 6c (one pair, nines).
Hero has Ad As (two pair, aces and nines).
CO has Tc 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: CO wins $4.67. 

#2 (On the flop I felt there was at least a 60% chance I was ahead, was I wrong for pushing?)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 ($0.86)
MP2 ($7.52)
MP3 ($2.45)
Hero ($1.72)
Button ($0.48)
SB ($9.08)
BB ($4.53)
UTG ($3.31)
UTG+1 ($3.49)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.14, Button calls $0.14, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls $0.12.

Flop: ($0.47) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.58 (All-In), Button folds, MP3 calls $1.58.

Turn: ($4.44) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($4.44) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $3.63

Results in white below: 
MP3 has Jc 7c (three of a kind, jacks).
Hero has Ks Kd (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: MP3 wins $3.63. 

#3 (AK with an A and K on the flop. Is there any other move but to push and hope for a call?)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($2.98)
UTG ($2.53)
UTG+1 ($3.76)
MP1 ($0.66)
Hero ($1.39)
MP3 ($2.98)
CO ($1.35)
Button ($6.92)
SB ($2.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.1, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, 5 folds.

Flop: ($0.23) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.29 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $1.29.

Turn: ($0) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($0) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $2.81

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has As Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Hero has Ad Kc (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $2.81. 

#4 (Is there any reason to not like my King high flush? I realize there was a straight on the board, but obviously that doesn't matter. Is there any way to forsee the disaster that this hand turned out to be?)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($1.96)
UTG ($2.09)
MP1 ($2.98)
Hero ($1.86)
CO ($2.86)
Button ($2.93)
SB ($9.38)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.02, MP1 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, CO calls $0.08, 3 folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls $0.06.

Flop: ($0.29) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.14, CO calls $0.14, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($0.57) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.34, Hero calls $0.34.

River: ($1.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.3 (All-In), CO calls $1.30.

Final Pot: $3.85

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qd Kh (flush, king high).
CO has Tc Ts (four of a kind, tens).
Outcome: CO wins $3.85. 

Hand #5 -- I had Queens, I raised, got reraised. Should I lay down Queens pre-flop to a reraise when I had already raised a large amount? I had no read on the guy but he seemed fairly tight)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($2)
Button ($2.65)
SB ($1.92)
BB ($4.96)
UTG ($0.11)
UTG+1 ($2.23)
MP1 ($3.45)
MP2 ($2.97)
MP3 ($6.32)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.02.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.08, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises to $0.14, 3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.34, Hero calls $0.20.

Flop: ($0.71) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.3, Hero raises to $1.66, MP2 calls $1.36.

Turn: ($4.03) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($4.03) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $4.03

Results in white below: 
MP2 has Ad As (two pair, aces and threes).
Hero has Qh Qc (two pair, queens and threes).
Outcome: MP2 wins $4.03. 

All of these hands happened within a 15 minute time frame. As you know it can be pretty hard to keep focus and stay off tilt.

Once again, I realize I probably didn't play perfect, but I have never experienced such a bad run before (in such a short period). For the sake of argument, let's assume I can beat Nl $2. With this assumption, can a winning player still go through slumps like this? How long can they last? I have lost about 6-8 buy-ins since yesterday (about $20). Keep in mind that I built my roll from a starting roll of $2 playing these stakes. I crushed it. Now this. I find it hard to believe I am playing worse than I used to, so I wonder if this is "variance" rearing its ugly head?

Obviously there is a lot I need to improve on, which is why I bother you guys with my micro-donk stakes hands. I thank you in advance for your input. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

WCGRider · #2 10-05-2007, 01:42 AM

Variance without doubt but jesus you played some of these hands badly, ill post which ones in a sec.

WCGRider · #3 10-05-2007, 01:55 AM

Hand 1: Not badly played at all

Preflop: Raising to 8/10 is better but at this level 12 is fine cause they will call.

Your 3bet is not to a good amount to get called, but meh its w/e cause of your stack sizing, so not too bad.

Sucks you lost the all in

Hand 2: Badly played (lol at your 60% estimate)

PF: Raise is fine

Flop: OK WTF BBQ IS THIS BET. Dude, you want second best hands to call you, not better hands. Please bet 40 to 55 ish and go from there.

Your so lucky to be ahead in the all in (which you barely are cause he has a flush draw) that this really could matter less.

Hand 3: Sucks but WTF

PF: Fine your in position take a flop

Flop: OK WTF IS WITH THE PUSHAGE. Jesus man gets some value.

AA>AK And on this we arent getting away.

Hand 4: lol ...

PF: Multiway pot, now you bet way too little with a hand that seriouly needs less people.

Shoving that board on the river is bad, only better hands are calling pretty much. c/c prob better, stats on villain would help a lot

Hand 5: ..

PF: LOL Make a real raise to like 24 or so cents, dude minraise isnt doing [censored].

Flop: Yeah you are getting it in here i think unless you have a read on the villain

so yes bad luck, but get stats up, stop shoving huge into small pots, and get a better pf strategy.

Specialwon · #4 10-05-2007, 01:57 AM

Hand 1: This happens from time to time, AA is a great hand but not invincible, c'est la vie.

Hand 2+3: KK is also a great hand and you are PROBABLY ahead on the flop. But, smashing all your money down like that is wrong because you scare away anyone with a weaker hand who might have called a smaller bet. Usually the only guys who call that bet either have you beat or are on a strong draw. So, don't smash flops like that, bet a sensible amount, maybe 2/3 pot.

Hand 4, OK I guess, but again I don't like this gleeful smashing your money down on the river, often only a better hand will call.

Hand 5: see hands 2 + 3.

Edit: I agree with WGCRider about your preflop raising.

If you raise up, the usual rule of thumb is 4 x big blind plus one big blind for each limper. When reraising, I usually bet 3.5x raise plus one raise for each caller.