NCAAF rankings after week 3

[jogsxyz]

[ QUOTE ]
This is purely for a laugh, this early in the season, but I'll post what my computer rankings have. These rankings are based almost entirely on cross referencing margins of victory,...............

[/ QUOTE ]

'margin of victory' is often a poor indicator. Some coaches
run up the score while others play their reserves.

[Gregatron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is purely for a laugh, this early in the season, but I'll post what my computer rankings have. These rankings are based almost entirely on cross referencing margins of victory,...............

[/ QUOTE ]

'margin of victory' is often a poor indicator. Some coaches
run up the score while others play their reserves.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but I'm sure you could incorporate some sort of function to control for that (loglinear or root). I've never gotten into sports betting, but I think it might be fun to play with some statistical models.

[teamdonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see, based on resume, how anybody can rank Penn State ahead of ohio state, Oregon, or BC.

[/ QUOTE ]

early season polls aren't entirely based on this years results, nor should they be.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wisconsin's true ranking is about 40.

My underrated teams:

South Carolina
USF
UCF
BC
Okla

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Oklahoma is underrated?

[/ QUOTE ]

What part didn't you understand?

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is purely for a laugh, this early in the season, but I'll post what my computer rankings have. These rankings are based almost entirely on cross referencing margins of victory,...............

[/ QUOTE ]

'margin of victory' is often a poor indicator. Some coaches
run up the score while others play their reserves.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but I'm sure you could incorporate some sort of function to control for that (loglinear or root). I've never gotten into sports betting, but I think it might be fun to play with some statistical models.

[/ QUOTE ]
Margin of victory may not be great for measuring talent, but it's pretty good for a system that's designed to be predictive. If team A and team B are equally "good", but one of them tends to run up the score, then team A is in fact likely to beat bad team C by a larger margin than team B is. You can't just toss it out the window if you want to be predictive.

That said, my ratings are pretty simplistic, and I know that. There are MANY things I'd like to factor in that aren't currently accounted for (including home field). On the other hand, starting in weeks 5-6 I used them as a tool for CFB betting last year and it worked pretty well. Now, I presume a lot of that was just positive variance, but I'll take my 16 unit profit. So these rankings do have at least *some* merit, though not after only three weeks.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
The only game they *might* be an underdog is October 20th, at Alabama.

[/ QUOTE ]

They'll be a slight underdog against Kentucky in Lexington. And forget "might," they'll be a 4-6 point dog against Bama.

Edited to add: Actually after reading pvn's post and looking at the schedule, yeah, I have no idea what you're talking about.

[iggymcfly]

I actually looked for this thread a couple times this week, but didn't see one and didn't feel like starting one, so I left it. I did do my own rankings on Sunday though and here they are:

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. Oregon (underrated IMO- Fresno State win was very impressive under the radar)
6. West Virginia
7. Ohio State
8. Texas
9. South Carolina
10. Boston College
11. Penn State (not that impressed, they still haven't beat a real team)
12. California
13. Rutgers
14. Alabama
15. Louisville (still better than Kentucky, they would have won by double digits at Papa Johns)
16. Wisconsin
17. Kentucky
18. Cincinnatti (Oregon State win looks better now that we know Utah's legit)
19. Texas A&M
20. USF
21. Missouri
22. Clemson
23. Georgia
24. Georgia Tech (still a top 5 team...... if only that pesky forward pass wasn't legal)
25. Nebraska
26. Arizona State
27. Virginia Tech
28. Air Force
29. Texas Tech
30. Arkansas
31. Miami
32. Tennessee

[ReDeYES88]

Sorry, but I refuse to rank Oregon in the top ten until seeing the results of next week's game against Cal.

I've seen every snap this season, and I still question their run defense:

Alridge from Houston ripped them pretty good (22/205) mainly because the game was close or tied until the end of the third quarter. After that Houston was forced to pass and play catch up.

Hart from Michigan went for 25/127, mostly because Michigan insisted on staying with the running game even though the Ducks were pulling away (thank you Lloyd Carr).

Fresno State didn't have a back with a reasonable game mainly because they don't have a running game, period. They've rushed for 465 as a TEAM in three games, and that includes 266 against Sac State in the first game.

They have also done a great job SO FAR in turnover margin (10-2), but I'm expecting a Dixon blow up game in the near future where he throws a few picks (none so far this year). He's had a delicate confidence in the past, and it won't take much for him to start pressing.

Don't get me wrong, they have some amazing talent on offense (Stewart, Dixon, Johnson, Williams, Paysinger, Colvin, on and on and on) but the front seven on defense is still a bit wet behind the ears and needs to mature quick. Thank god they have great DBs.

Oh, and they are still trying to figure out who is doing the placekicking: Evenson or Padilla. Not a good spot to be in when the game is on the line. I'm predicting that placekicking will cost them one close game this year.

Yes, I'm an Alum.

[IlliniLou]

where is Illinois ranked????? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but I refuse to rank Oregon in the top ten until seeing the results of next week's game against Cal.

I've seen every snap this season, and I still question their run defense:

Alridge from Houston ripped them pretty good (22/205) mainly because the game was close or tied until the end of the third quarter. After that Houston was forced to pass and play catch up.

Hart from Michigan went for 25/127, mostly because Michigan insisted on staying with the running game even though the Ducks were pulling away (thank you Lloyd Carr).

Fresno State didn't have a back with a reasonable game mainly because they don't have a running game, period. They've rushed for 465 as a TEAM in three games, and that includes 266 against Sac State in the first game.

They have also done a great job SO FAR in turnover margin (10-2), but I'm expecting a Dixon blow up game in the near future where he throws a few picks (none so far this year). He's had a delicate confidence in the past, and it won't take much for him to start pressing.

Don't get me wrong, they have some amazing talent on offense (Stewart, Dixon, Johnson, Williams, Paysinger, Colvin, on and on and on) but the front seven on defense is still a bit wet behind the ears and needs to mature quick. Thank god they have great DBs.

Oh, and they are still trying to figure out who is doing the placekicking: Evenson or Padilla. Not a good spot to be in when the game is on the line. I'm predicting that placekicking will cost them one close game this year.

Yes, I'm an Alum.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm born and raised in Eugene, and love seeing Oregon as apparently (at least in this thread) a consensus top ten team. On the other hand, I'm right with you on those concerns. The defensive line has looked okay at some times, and very vulnerable at others, but the fact that Cal and USC are both top 20 in the nation in rushing scares me as far as the Pac Ten race is concerned. The pass coverage has been better than I'd expected so far, but I'm still not convinced they won't give up a few big plays down the road that could prove costly. Also, Dixon hasn't actually looked quite as sharp as his stats have indicated at all times (cough cough Houston first half), and since historically he's very talented with shining moments... but inconsistent with some very low points too. I'm worried that those low points might come at the wrong time.

However, for all of these question marks, I'm not sure there are enough other teams in the country without similar question marks to keep them out of the top ten. Obviously the Cal game will tell us a ton (assuming they don't choke against Stanford). We'll have to see what happens, and I'm optimistic, but still staying a little reserved with my expectations. I'm also a little worried about a big win over Cal, followed by the tradtional "now that everyone believes in us we can quit" collapse that has been standard mid-season fare for the Ducks since Joey left...

But even so, GO DUCKS!!!