Tough spot with a strong hand

[Entity]

Folded to me in the CO and I open with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. My opponent, who I have stats on but no great read (he hasn't been too loud so far so I haven't seen a ton out of him), coldcalls OTB. He's 30/8/1.2 or so. Higher turn and river aggression than flop aggression from what I can see. Small sample so may not be worth a ton.

The flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I bet, he raises, and I 3bet. He calls.

The turn is the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet and he calls quickly. The river is the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bet and he raises.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[bboy_]

easy crying call vs anyone, especially a player that you don't have that strong of a read on

[DeathDonkey]

He has a worse Queen often enough to reraise here I think. If you are beat its by a flush and not a boat because people love to play flushes this weird way when they suck. I raise.

-DeathDonkey

[admiralfluff]

I think this player is popping the turn almost always when we're behind. His flop raise/call + turn call sais I hit the flop, and can't beat an overpair. His river raise sais, now I can beat an overpair! Huzah! If he's not taking a crazy, tricky line (and this player type usually is not overly tricky) he has trip Qs.

Even if he is taking a tricky line: What if he called the flop 3-bet with a set or 2 pair intending to raise the turn? Did he get scared when the straight/flush card came and decided to call down? If so, would he call the turn with a straight or flush (intending to raise the river) and go ahead and raise anyways when the board pairs? If he does have a significant tricky range here, it is unlikely that both straights/flushes AND boats are in it.

At first I thought 'crap, call', but after thinking it through and doing some stoving I think we're up against a fairly tight range that we have crushed a significant majority of the time, and a wide range that beats us a significant minority of the time => 3bet.

[sweetjazz]

Unless you have reason to think is particularly tricky, I think you have to 3bet for value, as KQ and QT are a large part of his range. I think QJ/flush/set all give more combined flop+turn action.

If there were a 3 bet cap, then this would be an easy 3-bet. But I think the times you are facing a cap and losing (e.g. he plays QJ/JJ/88 this way, fearing to raise turn because the flush card came in) are still much less than the times you see KQ or QT. Of course I expect to see AQ a lot here as well, but then it doesn't really matter if you 3bet or call.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
He has a worse Queen often enough to reraise here I think. If you are beat its by a flush and not a boat because people love to play flushes this weird way when they suck. I raise.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the truth. I don't understand why they do that (other than "they suck").

[secret.asian.man]

basic hand reading all point to him having a Q, so 3 bet.

[milesdyson]

I would say 3-bet like 1 month ago. Now I call and lose every time to Q8.

[gehrig]

this is an exercise in weighted hand ranges

his two most likely hands are KQ and QT (plus AQ which doesnt matter). he'll prob play those hands like this 100%. just about every other hand in his range has us beat, but all those hands have to be discounted bc they tend to give u more action on flop/turn.

the river play here is kind of impossible to solve. my guess is ur about half-way between breakeven-equity and 3bet-equity

[RudeboyOi]

is this one of those 3bet/fold to cap hands?