200NL Fake blocking bet with the nuts

[Cry Me A River]

This is not a move I use very often but villain seemed like a reasonable reg (20.98/9.07/4.67 over 3K hands) if somewhat LAGy. I don't think he's calling a very big bet with much of his range given the double paired board and flush draw hitting.

OTOH, if he did have the FD or AK I might be loosing some value here if he decides he has showdown value and doesn't want to bluff, try to push me off, or extract value from his flush.

What do you think? Reasonable spot to try and pull a fast one given his AF or is this just FPS?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($106.20)
BB ($191)
Hero ($260.30)
UTG+1 ($98)
MP1 ($93)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($784)
CO ($214.25)
Button ($119.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $2, MP3 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($12) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $10, MP3 folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($32) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $17</font>, MP2 calls $17.

River: ($66) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>

Oh, btw, before you mention not raising preflop - I had a huge lagdonk to the left of me who was calling every raise and never folded a flop in his life (20% fold to cbet, srsly!) If I raise, he's calling and so is everyone behind him looking to take his stack. Tough spot for 99 OOP on anything less than a perfect flop.

[Delphi]

I don't see a hand that will raise you here. But a flush or an Ace might call a little more. I would bet slightly above half the pot, maybe 36$.

[vizer02]

I like a river CRAI rather than this blocking bet. I think it's a better option if you want to get tricky based upon the villains aggresiveness, or else you should bet more for value.

[BT2]

if you are going to go for it, i would have bet a bit less. otherwise make a large value bet.

[seki]

If the board wasn't double paired, I'd like it. Otherwise he can't raise w/o AA or 33 (which if he's decent, he would have already made a move). I'd probably throw out a vb in the low 40s.

[FireStorm]

$40 value bet seems better. If board weren't double paired, this would be hot. As it stands, there's really nothing he can pop you with here, so most of the time you get rewarded with a $25 call from AJo.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a river CRAI rather than this blocking bet. I think it's a better option if you want to get tricky based upon the villains aggresiveness, or else you should bet more for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Back in limit, they talk about the c/r on the river, and talk about how there are situations where you definitely want 1 or 3 in instead of 0 or 2.

Even tho we're at NL here, I think the general concept applies. We'd rather have some in or a lot in instead of none or a probably smaller amount.

[icetea123]

probably just FPS. not many 3's or AA can show up here.

if he's a good reg, i really can't see what he's holding here except for 33, or KQs/some other strong FD. any strong ace and he's raising PF. any set and he has to be raising this flop/turn. any random 2p like A3 has to be raising this flop as well (especially since the donk folded and there is no villain to "slow play"). 33 Might make sense because he just boated on the turn, but still, super aggro players aren't likely to call 2 straight bets.

i just hope he has KQs and put in a vb of 40ish.

[Cry Me A River]

FWIW, villain called and showed ATo.

I think I like checkraising better even though in this particular case I'm not sure if he's betting or just taking his showdown value.

[icetea123]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, villain called and showed ATo.

I think I like checkraising better even though in this particular case I'm not sure if he's betting or just taking his showdown value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you should change his status from good reg to "reg". calling 3 bets w/ ATo doesn't exactly seem like a winning strategy, especially given the fact you bet into 5! players on the flop.