1/2NL live: JJ line check

[overun]

Villain in hand has a reputation for being a LAG. He used to love floating both IP and OOP and trying to take pots away on later streets. His preflop calling range is almost any 2 suited, any connectors, all PPs, and most Axs. However, recently his game has changed to a bit more TAG, and his bets have had a bit more credit.

1/2NL live. 8-handed. I have been playing rather tight, showing down 2 winners so far, but have just gotten stacked earlier in a 160BB pot w/ AA v QQ preflop, where I 6bet AA allin UTG w/ a diff player and lost. So, table might see me as either still playing tight, or could be steaming a bit.

My stack is about 170. Villain covers.

I have JJ UTG and raise it up to 12. Villain calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop ($27): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I bet $20. Villain calls.

Turn ($67): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I check. Villain bets $40. I c/r all in.

Good? Bad? Anyone else take a diff line?

[GiantBuddha]

I think this is a well constructed post, but poorly constructed line. You've got your reads listed and pretty well thought out, but then your line kinda ignores them. I think you get paid off by a worse hand approximately never.

[overun]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a well constructed post, but poorly constructed line. You've got your reads listed and pretty well thought out, but then your line kinda ignores them. I think you get paid off by a worse hand approximately never.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is a better line to take? Should I c/c turn? Then c/c river? or b/c river?

My original intent after seeing the flop was to not fold, as there are very few hands that beat me. Only QQ+ (which villain would almost always reraise preflop, otherwise the whole table will start calling), 88/99, and 2x, which would include mostly A2s, 23s, 24s, K2s, and maybe 25s. But, I'm beating almost all the PPs and random 8x or 9x hands. Although, in retrospect, villain will probably not bet most of his 8x, 9x, or PP hands on turn, and most turn bets should be either draws (slim), 2xs, boats, and air.

I should have mentioned earlier, but villain will make hero calls if he suspects I'm weak.

[Albert Moulton]

Given the stack sizes, I think this line is probably as good as you can get vs this particular villain. You get the continuation bet called by many worse hands. And then you get a turn bet out of some worse hands by checking to induce a steal attempt. But at that point the pot is so large relative to your effective stacks that you might as well push now to protect your hand with the CRAI preventing him from getting any additional cards like an A, K, Q, straight or flush card that might give him a better hand (if he's not better already).

If you c/c the turn, you're so heavily committed to the pot that you can't fold any river card. And if you c/c the turn, and then check the river, then villain can bet better hands (that you end up calling) and check behind with worse hands. While if you bet the river, he can call with better hands and fold with worse ones.

I think given the stack sizes and your read that he can/will float a cb to fire light at the turn, that your line is probably best once you make the cb.

What about c/c the flop, and bet/fold the turn? It's a dry flop, and inducing a bluff on the flop followed by a bet at any turn (especially if its A, K, or Q) might be a cheaper way of inducing the bluff, but not paying off better hands with your stack. Occasionally, checking the flop is good instead of always insta-cb'ing. In this case c/c, then bet/fold might be worth considering.

As for preflop, you don't have to raise 7% of your stack preflop from UTG with JJ. I think I would have raised less, like $8. If you raised to $8 then the pot at the flop here (assuming still one caller) would be $16 (after a $3 drop). You then bet $12 at the flop and get called (pot $40 instead of $67). You then c/c the turn for $30 (pot now $100, and you still have effective stacks of $120). Then on the river the pot is still smaller than your stack and you can bet/fold, or check/call, or whatever depending on the river card and your read on how villain would play it.

Another way to play would be to limp and play for set value, calling a raise if it's less than 10% effective stacks, and folding otherwise. This is probably good if there is a lot of reraising preflop and you expect to get reraised off your jacks if you open raised UTG and you aren't interested in pushing preflop.

Yet another way might be to make a small raise to $4 or $5 and just play for a set. This builds a decent pot, generally multi-way, and you just keep out of playing hard for it if you miss the flop. The biggest risk of this line is that the button, SB, and especially the BB might make a play to steal all the limpers' money. So if button, SB, or BB are that kind of player, then this won't work so well. Of course, you can counter that kind of play if you occasionally make this kind of pot-builder raise in EP with AA or KK or even AK in the hopes of getting SB or BB to steal so you can push over his likely steal attempt.

The last idea, and IMO the worst, is to make a big "jacks" raise that no body will call unless they have QQ-AA, in which case they'll raise. Typically everybody will fold and the BB will say, "Aces?" And you'll say, "jacks." Except this time you'll be telling the truth.

[xxrod17xx]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a well constructed post, but poorly constructed line. You've got your reads listed and pretty well thought out, but then your line kinda ignores them. I think you get paid off by a worse hand approximately never.

[/ QUOTE ]

based on the description this seems like the perfect line for this villan. We know hes going to try and take down the pot on the turn assuming we were just c-betting. I love this line, Buddha what line do you take?