4/180 - value bet straight on the river?

[Jesuitical]

This is a more interesting spot when you're not early in a 4/180, I think. Flushes are almost always shoving, thinking that you or the other player are pot-committed at this point and not at all worried about the possibility of a full house. They hit their draw, after all -- what they were in the hand for! -- and that's all that matters. I'd be surprised if a set played this way, but if it did it would shove the river too.

Not to say that you're always good here, but you get called worse here by random Kings and other assorted garbage (again, early in a 4/180) to shove here.

[miw210]

In retrospect, my thoughts:

1. Turn call by BB probably means either a weak king, midpair, or a club draw. TPTK, two pair, or set easily shoves I think.
2. Flop and Turn calls by MP2 probably means either a club, maybe even a straight draw with so much already in the pot.
3. River checks by both players probably means neither of them has a made hand. BB probably has a weak king or midpair, MP2 a whiffed straight draw.
4. If BB does has a weak king, there's no way BB can fold to a push by the river.

Is this a good line of thinking? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Jesuitical]

Apparently someone caught their flush and checked it, but I still think you get value from hands you beat more often than not in a 4/180. I'm surprised he had the discipline to do that to be honest... but then again solid players are sprinkled in there with the fish.

Against better competition, you would have to be more worried about 3-4, 9-10, 10-J or 6-x of clubs, and it would be read-dependent on whether to bet or not.