this is probably why goofyballer thinks i am nuts

[billybeartku]

so bad..

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
if 2 pairs and sets are in his range flushes are as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i realized this a few min ago. terp and i are trying to figure out how often he folds...

[terp]

some thoughts:

1) i am betting this river with anything i am calling $65 with. i believe villain is good enough, despite the donkish appearance of his pre/flop/turn play to recognize this.

2) i don't expect to fold out flushes often, if ever. i expect him to call with a flush close to 95% or so (just a guess). that said, this isn't the kind of play i just whip out every 100 hands so he shouldn't feel great calling off another 125BBs here.

3) the crux of this hand is the ratio of how often he has 56/78/89/77+/{hands i beat anyway} to how often he has a flush.

thoughts?

[Fonkey123]

I am one of the spewiest of spewtads and play nothing like goofy, and think this is bad.

[Fonkey123]

Also, I don't think he has a flush that often, unless it's a flush draw that picked up extra outs on the turn like 9/x spades or JTss. Also, he like never folds a set or 2 pair.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, he like never folds a set or 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is just really untrue in a pot this big.

whether he gets to the river this way with a set or 2p is another matter. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[corsakh]

I don't know. I personally agree that he puts you on an over and value bets 87 or 77 here. He does not want to make it look like a blocking bet, since he is afraid to get raised and wants some value. I don't think a 23/13 at this level is capable of thinking through taking this line to induce a bluff. I also disregard a flush draw given the texture of the board, his position in the blinds and AF.

[Bulletproof Monk]

i like it

[phantom_lord]

[ QUOTE ]
Hate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MyironThumb]

i do this too much so i kinda like it, aslong as you know villan will lay down sets/2pairs enough when that river comes

edit: what range of hands do you think ull fold out here? if your the villan and he has a set/straight is this a standard fold or call?