A TRIPLE BARREL BLUFF

[Chicago Twister]

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yes if this guy's entire calling range is A8
turn bluff is super +ev

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I don't disagree about the turn bet. I disagree about the river bet. I would bet the turn most of the time also. Once he calls, then the flush comes, we really expect a nl50 player to let go?

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Terp is trying to help

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I appreciate that. I'm still going to challenge him and not just take what's being given without question. Tell me you do differently.

[wslee00]

i agree w/ twister - no problem at all w/ turn bet - river bet is complete spew until i get some thought process.

[terp]

i was actually hoping he would call the turn so that i could bluff the river. i figured i would be $11 richer nearly 100% of the time.

i was hoping y'all would run this out for me, since i was trying to help, but here goes.

i 3Xbarrel maybe one in 5k hands - a pure triple barrel like this, that is. i'll execute various other multistreet bluffs with whatever other frequencies.

at 50nl, when someone 1/2 pots flop, he typically has a very weak hand or draw. a weak hand would be medium 8 or worse. there are a number of draws, but i think that this particular player is not bet/calling with a gutterball. also notice that the 8 is a spade. this is key.

he takes a while to call the raise. the sort of player bets/calls with a draw almost always does so with some continuous tempo. as i said, he was not multitabling, so his timing tells will generally be informative. we can now say that his range is primarily made hands that had attempted to control the pot size/take some initiative. as far as the flop raise with king high, feel free to criticize me, but 1MM hands of NLHE tells me it is +ev by itself.

turn. this is a good card. i AM bluffraising the flop with all kinds of stuff, if he needs to put me on a hand. much of it includes an ace. four-handed i am raising any suited ace UTG and probably as bad as A8 or A9o. in essence, if he must put me on a hand to fold, he can decide that my range includes many aces. also keep in mind i am playing all sets/43/aces up like this. he takes a LONG time to call. again, this reinforces my read on his range. 77/89 type hands are most of his range at this point. he is NOT only calling me with two pair+. (lol)

river. FRUSH. i'm not really using the flush so much as that it wasn't a 7/8/9, which would often have made him two pair/set. put yourself in his spot with a pair of 9s. you would never [censored] call here and not just because you're 2+2ers, but because it's a very unprofitable, scary spot to be. he beats a rare, multistreet bluff. all hands i was semibluffing have made two pair/straight/flush. i can shove with any ace or better here for value since he never has that beaten. i don't NEED to balance my range between bluffs and valuebets since i am so confident he has 99 or so at best. because my valuebetting range has swollen so much, i can afford to throw in a few bluffs to exert even more pressure on him and make my continuation bets more effective in the future.

[wslee00]

So this post is basically a post about timing tells?

[wslee00]

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at 50nl, when someone 1/2 pots flop, he typically has a very weak hand or draw. a weak hand would be medium 8 or worse. there are a number of draws, but i think that this particular player is not bet/calling with a gutterball.

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Based on this, shouldn't you just fold the flop?

[terp]

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So this post is basically a post about timing tells?

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i've spent enough time responding in this thread that i feel justified paying this no response.

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at 50nl, when someone 1/2 pots flop, he typically has a very weak hand or draw. a weak hand would be medium 8 or worse. there are a number of draws, but i think that this particular player is not bet/calling with a gutterball.

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Based on this, shouldn't you just fold the flop?

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are you serious? this information isn't enough to make ANY decision. maybe he bets and folds weak hands? maybe he bets and calls a raise but then folds on 70% of turn cards. i am a good handreader and i don't mind playing multistreet poker in position against someone with a range that is heavily weak.

it is clear that he has more equity than i do, but it does not follow that folding is better than other actions

[maciczka]

he has Ace small or pockepair smaller then 88? haha

[Speedlimits]

I prob just muck this on the flop. As played the turn is good for you but once he calls that turn bet i shut down.

[Brian O'Nolan]

I agree villain's 1/2 pot flop donk is weak... but you haven't given any indication that he won't call off a buyin with 87 or something. Given that you say he is unremarkable I think he calls the river with one pair too often for this to be a good idea. You need a good read to make these kinds of plays at 50NL and it doesn't sound like you have one. Also having an aggro image is going to make him more likely to look you up.

[kaz2107]

i would personally like this much more if the river didnt complete the flush. there is 0% he thinks u r on a flush draw based on ur flop raise and big turn bet. so i dont think the flush hitting here gives u any more FE. it only stregthens his range. as u said urself on the flop he very well could have a FD here. id say that is a decent part of his range. say maybe 30% or sumtin (unless u have read that says he is decent and not a fish which wasnt given to us) so meh. i dont hate it as i love aggression and villian has obv shown about as much weakness as u could. but blah. very high varience and prolly at best nuetral ev.