24: K9o, M of 5, ITM, big stack to left

[BarryLyndon]

No reads, blinds 400/800/100

Hero (10,245), CO
Button (33,432)
SB (14,753)
BB (16,432)


Folds to Hero with K9o and ____________:

Easy push?

[4CardStraight]

Negatory. We fold if they are playing well. We push if they are way too tight.

If they are playing well its -EV.

We should get looked up on average by this range:
55+,A6s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo (14%)

.88X^Y3 = 36% of the time we get looked up
64% we win blinds


Were 31.3% dog when called nets to -1200Tchips
We steal 68% of the time for for +1025Tchips


So its -EV if they average calling us well. If they call us with top 10% or tighter its clearly +cEV. If we give our chips a slight premium they have to be quite tight for it to be +$EV. If we give our chips a significant premium then they need to be redic tight for it to be +$EV.

Its a muck, imho. Here I would be open pushing:

33+,AXs,A7o+,KTs+,KQo (appx)

[Pokerfarian]

Is this 4-handed or is it 9ish handed and its folded to CO? I'm guessing its 8/9 handed in which case I think it's a shove (assuming not FT so cEV = $EV) We're picking up 2000/2100 when not called.

[2Fast]

[ QUOTE ]
Negatory. We fold if they are playing well. We push if they are way too tight.

If they are playing well its -EV.

We should get looked up on average by this range:
55+,A6s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo (14%)

.88X^Y3 = 36% of the time we get looked up
64% we win blinds


Were 31.3% dog when called nets to -1200Tchips
We steal 68% of the time for for +1025Tchips


So its -EV if they average calling us well. If they call us with top 10% or tighter its clearly +cEV. If we give our chips a slight premium they have to be quite tight for it to be +$EV. If we give our chips a significant premium then they need to be redic tight for it to be +$EV.

Its a muck, imho. Here I would be open pushing:

33+,AXs,A7o+,KTs+,KQo (appx)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thx. Wow K9o is certainly something I'd deliberate about a lot but i think I push interesting calcs. Is your range at the end a little tight? I mean I think I throw JTs+ and QJs+ in there for sure - wondering what that turns out like.

[4CardStraight]

Oh sure, you can. Its just not +EV to push them and turn them face up. If our opponents can see us push JT, then they should call with every Q,K,and A, and we have 3 people behind. Thats top 45% hands (every pair, A,K,Q) and were 43/57 against that range. Only 16% of the time will we steal the blinds if they call that loose, and the rest of the time were somewhat dominated.

Now... Opponents cant see our cards, and we dont turn them face up, and they are often calling way too tight. If they are calling us ACCURATELY according to our cards, then pushing 12BB from cutoff with JTs is a loser.

The range I gave is a winner no matter how loose they call.

4Card.

[zoobird]

Based on OPs subject line saying 'M=5', I think you're right that this is 8 or 9 handed, in which case the antes make this an instapush.

[BarryLyndon]

Sorry, it was 8 handed and there are 2000 chips in the pot.

[shaundeeb]

shove all day fold A2o though.