Middle pair, ass end & BDFD . . . dump it?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call on the turn getting 4.5:1 and despite the worry of more potential action.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP.

[Grease]

Why do you think UTG has AA or KK?

Why not 77 or 55?

Either way, I think we have to call the turn, especially with the SB in, because I think your flush outs are good a lot, a 3 is probably ok, and a 6 is probably not too bad. We could be beaten by either MP2 or UTG, but I want to see some money go in on the river, because I think we're good a lot of the time. I think betting out would be my first choice, because if you C/R and UTG 3-bets, you throw up in your mouth and are left with a really crappy scenario.

I would B/C one, but probably fold for two (unless you have a specific read on someone.)

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think UTG has AA or KK?

Why not 77 or 55?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's possible. But like I said, he's prone to attempt a LRR with AA/KK, and since that failed, his postflop actions fit the pattern of trying to ram through a big pair. I don't think he plays a set so straightforwardly, even with the threatening board. He's too much of a goober.

[marchron]

Wow, a lot of discussion in this thread. I can barely get a word in edgewise.

I decided to play check-and-see with the river, considering that while I thought UTG was on AA/KK, I wasn't sure, and there were other players to worry about.


Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: marchron is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, marchron checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, marchron checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls, marchron calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, marchron checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, SB calls, marchron calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls, marchron calls.

River: (16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, marchron checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, SB folds, marchron . . .

Is there anyone here who wants to call two given this action? Three-bet?? Fold? Anyone? Anyone? Beuller? . . .

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there anyone here who wants to call two given this action? Three-bet?? Fold? Anyone? Anyone? Beuller? . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like neither of your opponents are bothered about the possibility of trip 6's.

Given the action from both UTG and MP2 it would not surprise me to see UTG with a straight and MP2 with a boat.

Either way, this river does not look like a call to me after MP2 raises.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think UTG has AA or KK?

Why not 77 or 55?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's possible. But like I said, he's prone to attempt a LRR with AA/KK, and since that failed, his postflop actions fit the pattern of trying to ram through a big pair. I don't think he plays a set so straightforwardly, even with the threatening board. He's too much of a goober.

[/ QUOTE ]

March, I don't understand why you're so fixated on AA/KK. Srsly? "He limped UTG so he MUST have AA/KK"? His actions also fit TP, UI overcards, overpairs, a wide range of holdings.

As to the river, your decision to check-and-see saved you a bet in this case, but will usually cost you two. Bet/fold! As played, just fold. This is wonky-straight vs. boat waay more than 10% of the time and nobody seems to care about trips.

Oh, wait, it's all clear, now! You DID fold, UTG DID have AA, and MP showed down 63o!

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
March, I don't understand why you're so fixated on AA/KK. Srsly? "He limped UTG so he MUST have AA/KK"? His actions also fit TP, UI overcards, overpairs, a wide range of holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]
O RLY? Your average moron is going to bet the flop and b/3 the turn with A7 or QJ? Overpairs . . . possibly. 88 and 99 seem conceivable. But I have a specific read that he limps big pairs and then goes nuts postflop if he whiffs the LRR opportunity. Of course, he could also have a set or 98.

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, wait, it's all clear, now! You DID fold, UTG DID have AA, and MP showed down 63o!

[/ QUOTE ]
You're only half-right, Cap'n.

[milesdyson]

FOLD

IT WAS SPOZED TO BE EEEEEEEEEEEEASY

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
O RLY? Your average moron is going to bet the flop and b/3 the turn with A7 or QJ? Overpairs . . . possibly. 88 and 99 seem conceivable. But I have a specific read that he limps big pairs and then goes nuts postflop if he whiffs the LRR opportunity. Of course, he could also have a set or 98.

[/ QUOTE ]

A7, yes. QJ maybe not, but then again maybe given your read on how he plays big pairs in early position. Speaking of that, how good is that read? I mean, you have to have like 253624359082347 hands on the guy to believe that he'll reliably LRR AA/KK UTG, amirite?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, wait, it's all clear, now! You DID fold, UTG DID have AA, and MP showed down 63o!

[/ QUOTE ]
You're only half-right, Cap'n.

[/ QUOTE ]

Half of 3 predictions are right? March, you magnificent, inscrutable, results-oriented bastard!

[KitCloudkicker]

grunch

fold river after the raise

/end grunch