AKs with QQ on board

pelerin · #1 02-11-2007, 10:07 AM

Villain was 44/7/0.7 from 44 hands, he wasn't going to SD much and seemed an easy semi-bluff target.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Hero ...?

Was it ok to bet this slightly scary turn to get villain to fold stuff like Ax Kx or small PP?
Should I have called his turn CR as it seemed likely he had a Q in his hand and at this point I was beat? I had plenty of outs but so did he.
Does the river Ace make it worth calling?
(first hand post so go easy on me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

fretelöo · #2 02-11-2007, 10:15 AM

Has he folded the turn before? If so, the bet was probably fine. You have to call the raise and people often enough raise a J here on the turn to make a call ok, imho.

TehPokarKing · #3 02-11-2007, 10:45 AM

Your play here seems fine. I suppose you could have checked behind on the turn if you thought he wasn't likely to fold to a second barrel but I'm not sure if you had that kind of a read on him.

Without a good read on the guy I'd probably call the river hoping he doesn't have like AQ, KQ, or AJ.

kerowo · #4 02-11-2007, 11:03 AM

.7 aggro people who don't go to show down much don't c/r with air. You have to call the turn because you have outs vs anything he holds, but calling the river is pointless.

hunter.chief · #5 02-11-2007, 11:23 AM

*grunch*
I probably would have checked behind on the turn planning to call the river UI.
But as played you have to call villain's c/r. You have enough outs to call correctly.
River I'd call but I doubt if it is +EV against passive villain who checkraises you on turn.

FUJItheFISH · #6 02-11-2007, 11:34 AM

w/o reads the Q is a cool card to bet. id expect a flop c/r from a Q. i am calling the river. why? look at my name.

Donkey Kong · #7 02-11-2007, 12:34 PM

I know I shouldnt label people after 44 hands, but those are fish stats. I wouldnt be jamming the pot HU without being a favorite.
Preflop ok
Flop ok. Your continuation bet is standard and you have a massive draw.

When turn hits blank (for you, anyways) I'd take the free card. He's got you beat at this point, and there's a good chance he has a Q. As played, I'd call the raise. Your odds are good enough (as long as he doesnt have QJ, Q7, JJ, 77). 9+3 and some heavily discounted overcard-outs. So if we assume he didnt hit his boat you might have as many as 13-14 outs. These probably have to be discounted a bit more though, as these fish hardly ever wake up with much less than the nuts.

On the river you're probably beat, but you only have to win it about 12% of the time to make it profitable. I'd call it but expect to lose. I think its close though.

pelerin · #8 02-11-2007, 12:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Has he folded the turn before? If so, the bet was probably fine. You have to call the raise and people often enough raise a J here on the turn to make a call ok, imho.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd noticed him calling a lot of flops then folding to a turn bet. I just checked in PT and his wtsd is only 21% so it seems he was giving up easily.
This was the first CR I'd seen from him though.

kerowo · #9 02-11-2007, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the river you're beat, and you'll never win it the 12% of the time needed so it's never profitable. I'd call it but but I hate money.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

threads13 · #10 02-11-2007, 01:28 PM

I think if you are betting the turn it isn't because you want Ax or Kx to fold, you want them to call. Having said that, I would rather take the free card on the turn. He will probably fold hands that you want to call and c/r you if the queen helped him. You will be forced to call with your FD+GS. If you take the free card you call any river UI and raise/bet if you improve.