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#21
11-13-2007, 07:58 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Do you c-bet this flop. I dont really like it. [/ QUOTE ] c-bet is fine - you'll fold out most of the overcards that would have called the preflop 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] Explain to me why this is good. [/ QUOTE ] You have a vulnerable top pair-no kicker in a 3-bet pot that you wouldn't mind taking down now. - You check the flop, he checks behind, and an A/K/Q/J hits the turn - now what? - You check the flop, so he puts you on a big Ace that missed and fires a PSB with his medium PP - do you call with your TPNK? If you occasionally check (with the intention of check-raising) your monster hands in this situation (OOP in a 3-bet pot), then I could see checking here. Personally, I usually c-bet here, but I'm open to arguments for different lines - I'm not trying to say that a c-bet is always the best play. [/ QUOTE ] You are making the age-old and somewhat tired argument that playing a hand the EASIEST way is the same as playing a hand the most PROFITABLE way. And the answers to all your questions are, it depends. But if I bet the flop here, it's probably because I assume that his calling/raising range is pretty damn wide. It's not to fold out overcards. [/ QUOTE ] also, if we bet when his calling/raising range is wide, then, you would advocate checking when his calling/raising range is narrow. So if we check flop we expect him to check behind his overcards and bet his overpairs. The same goes for turn and river, so we basically give him 2 free cards to suck out on us.... what am i missing? 
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#22
11-13-2007, 07:59 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
Yeh I just throw it away especially given how dry the flop is. This is an op or set almost always unless hes ridic good for $1/2 and knows what you're upto, in which case i wouldn't try and squeeze him too often [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#23
11-13-2007, 08:03 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Do you c-bet this flop. I dont really like it. [/ QUOTE ] c-bet is fine - you'll fold out most of the overcards that would have called the preflop 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] Explain to me why this is good. [/ QUOTE ] You have a vulnerable top pair-no kicker in a 3-bet pot that you wouldn't mind taking down now. - You check the flop, he checks behind, and an A/K/Q/J hits the turn - now what? - You check the flop, so he puts you on a big Ace that missed and fires a PSB with his medium PP - do you call with your TPNK? If you occasionally check (with the intention of check-raising) your monster hands in this situation (OOP in a 3-bet pot), then I could see checking here. Personally, I usually c-bet here, but I'm open to arguments for different lines - I'm not trying to say that a c-bet is always the best play. [/ QUOTE ] You are making the age-old and somewhat tired argument that playing a hand the EASIEST way is the same as playing a hand the most PROFITABLE way. And the answers to all your questions are, it depends. But if I bet the flop here, it's probably because I assume that his calling/raising range is pretty damn wide. It's not to fold out overcards. [/ QUOTE ] Bilbo, Using this logic for betting flop, it would seem that folding to his raise is a mistake then no? [/ QUOTE ] You can't say that in a vacuum. Depends on a lot of history, reads, flows, etc. Readless/Historyless I think this is a trivially easy snap-fold.
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#24
11-13-2007, 08:03 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
we need around 60:260=23% equity to call this.
We hit a T or a 9 around 15% of the time, so as a standard this is a fold. Assuming that we stack him everytime we hit we need exactly 15% 60:420=15%. This is assuming that he never bluffs and we only win when we hit, I haven't added the that we might even not beat him when we hit, and he could suck out on the river with a better 2pair such as AA and 33. Anyways, i think you should just fold untill you get better reads or you get deeper. I don't think the difference betwen calling and folding is that big, but the variance is huge.
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#25
11-13-2007, 08:04 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Do you c-bet this flop. I dont really like it. [/ QUOTE ] c-bet is fine - you'll fold out most of the overcards that would have called the preflop 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] Explain to me why this is good. [/ QUOTE ] they have ~27% equity against you [/ QUOTE ] K. What's my equity vs. 22 or 44?
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#27
11-13-2007, 08:05 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
whats your point? i dont get it
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#28
11-13-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Do you c-bet this flop. I dont really like it. [/ QUOTE ] c-bet is fine - you'll fold out most of the overcards that would have called the preflop 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] Explain to me why this is good. [/ QUOTE ] You have a vulnerable top pair-no kicker in a 3-bet pot that you wouldn't mind taking down now. - You check the flop, he checks behind, and an A/K/Q/J hits the turn - now what? - You check the flop, so he puts you on a big Ace that missed and fires a PSB with his medium PP - do you call with your TPNK? If you occasionally check (with the intention of check-raising) your monster hands in this situation (OOP in a 3-bet pot), then I could see checking here. Personally, I usually c-bet here, but I'm open to arguments for different lines - I'm not trying to say that a c-bet is always the best play. [/ QUOTE ] You are making the age-old and somewhat tired argument that playing a hand the EASIEST way is the same as playing a hand the most PROFITABLE way. And the answers to all your questions are, it depends. But if I bet the flop here, it's probably because I assume that his calling/raising range is pretty damn wide. It's not to fold out overcards. [/ QUOTE ] also, if we bet when his calling/raising range is wide, then, you would advocate checking when his calling/raising range is narrow. So if we check flop we expect him to check behind his overcards and bet his overpairs. The same goes for turn and river, so we basically give him 2 free cards to suck out on us.... what am i missing? [/ QUOTE ] You're missing that sometimes he checks, the turn is a 2, we bet and he calls with 88. You're missing that sometimes he bets with JT or QJ or some random [censored] because we checked, when he would have folded if we bet. You're missing that very little of his range is overpairs, but sometimes he'll check them and we'll turn a 9 or a T. If he does bet them, we lose the same amount that we lose if we bet, because they're never folding. You guys are pretty much all missing that raising this kind of [censored] from the blinds, and auto-cbetting EVERY flop, is very very very exploitable. It's pretty profitable for villain to just call in position preflop with a wide range, and float/shove over your c-bets with a lot of semi-bluffs as well as sets/overpairs.
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#29
11-13-2007, 08:10 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
ok nvm i do get it, but here's where you (and alot of others) are going wrong imo.
c/c might be the most +EV line on the FLOP, but you can be put in serious -EV situations if you take this line. it's all about protecting your equity. them folding 27% equity is a good thing anyway. turning a marginal hand into a bluff catcher w/o any idea of the guys bluffing tendencies is spew. don't mess about oop. If you are called you have outs.
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#30
11-13-2007, 08:16 PM
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Re: squeeze gone bad? 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Do you c-bet this flop. I dont really like it. [/ QUOTE ] c-bet is fine - you'll fold out most of the overcards that would have called the preflop 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] Explain to me why this is good. [/ QUOTE ] You have a vulnerable top pair-no kicker in a 3-bet pot that you wouldn't mind taking down now. - You check the flop, he checks behind, and an A/K/Q/J hits the turn - now what? - You check the flop, so he puts you on a big Ace that missed and fires a PSB with his medium PP - do you call with your TPNK? If you occasionally check (with the intention of check-raising) your monster hands in this situation (OOP in a 3-bet pot), then I could see checking here. Personally, I usually c-bet here, but I'm open to arguments for different lines - I'm not trying to say that a c-bet is always the best play. [/ QUOTE ] You are making the age-old and somewhat tired argument that playing a hand the EASIEST way is the same as playing a hand the most PROFITABLE way. And the answers to all your questions are, it depends. But if I bet the flop here, it's probably because I assume that his calling/raising range is pretty damn wide. It's not to fold out overcards. [/ QUOTE ] also, if we bet when his calling/raising range is wide, then, you would advocate checking when his calling/raising range is narrow. So if we check flop we expect him to check behind his overcards and bet his overpairs. The same goes for turn and river, so we basically give him 2 free cards to suck out on us.... what am i missing? [/ QUOTE ] You're missing that sometimes he checks, the turn is a 2, we bet and he calls with 88. You're missing that sometimes he bets with JT or QJ or some random [censored] because we checked, when he would have folded if we bet. You're missing that very little of his range is overpairs, but sometimes he'll check them and we'll turn a 9 or a T. If he does bet them, we lose the same amount that we lose if we bet, because they're never folding. You guys are pretty much all missing that raising this kind of [censored] from the blinds, and auto-cbetting EVERY flop, is very very very exploitable. It's pretty profitable for villain to just call in position preflop with a wide range, and float/shove over your c-bets with a lot of semi-bluffs as well as sets/overpairs. [/ QUOTE ] Except the reason why we are raising [censored] from the blinds and auto c-betting every flop is because we are exploiting the villain's loose raising/calling range. Lucky for us not many villains float/shove over c-bets with a wide range at these levels.
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