6.50: AK bubble

[ReNoRyan]

This guy has raised the last few times.

Should I shove over this guy, reraise or maybe smooth call? How do u play the flop if no A or K falls.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t4180)
Button (t945)
Hero (t3015)
BB (t5360)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t400</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, Hero ??

[Austiger]

Shove.

[RobBizzle]

I would also shove here.

[tsearcher]

You probably beat his range at this point, but I don't think shoving is correct. Button is pretty short, so I don't think it makes sense to take any risks here. A reraise will limit your options on the flop and make you virtually committed.

Folding or calling both seem weak, but they might be the best options here.

[Kibby]

simple push

[tsearcher]

Everyone is saying push here. But when I run the numbers in SNG Wiz, CO has to be raising with the top 60% of hands for hero to push. Am I doing something wrong?

[RexWoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone is saying push here. But when I run the numbers in SNG Wiz, CO has to be raising with the top 60% of hands for hero to push. Am I doing something wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

No way this is 60% but I find really suprising that this is really marginal if UTG is raising less than 30%, even if UTG call really tight (4% = TT+ AQ+).

[Kibby]

I don't have the Wiz but I'd bet you're doing something wrong here. Shortie has 5BBs left, plenty to stay around for a bit. The pot represents 20% of your stack, you have a minraiser and a hand that's great against everything but KK+. I haven't run the numbers but I can't see how this isn't a push.

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone is saying push here. But when I run the numbers in SNG Wiz, CO has to be raising with the top 60% of hands for hero to push. Am I doing something wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

[tsearcher]

Ok I've been playing around with the numbers some more. This time with SnG Power Tools. Assume villian raised all in instead of min raise. Even if he pushed with a random hand, calling with AKo is -1.4% e.v., 88 is the lowest hand that is +ev in this situation against a random hand. I think some people are forgetting that AKo is a dog against any PP.

So back to OP. Everything revolves around how likely it is that villain will fold. Which of course is very read dependent.

If villain folds, hero will have gone from 25.9%ev to 28.4%ev = +2.5% e.v.

If villian calls 65% of the time then we have: .65 * -1.4 = -.91

and: .35 * 2.5 = .775

for a -.135 ev

Remember this is against villain's random hand. So this really doesn't look like a standard push. You really have to know villains range and likeliness to fold. Seems like folding or calling are lot more reasonable here.

Of course my math could be totally off. So please, anyone that finds errors, show me the right way.

[Weir]

technically, i advise pushing b/c you are way ahead and will win a huge percentage of sitngos where you double up here.

however, i find the guy will call you with 3 7 offsuit and river a 3.

so you can just fold like a vagina until someone else goes out and then you can own.

also, i noticed something that people do really successfully, if the blinds are 100/200 or &gt; and you are on the button, just go all in.