JJ OOP, ACK

[Irishman07]

In practice I'd probably call just cause I'm a station and I have an overpair! But when I sit back and think about it I'm not sure it isn't a fold. We have to be good here 30% of the time. I know our hand is underrepped, but it's pretty apparent we have something so I doubt he has air all that often. Maybe 10% of the time at most. What hands is a 16/12 value betting here that we beat... A10 and mayybe K10. His line is also consistent with QQ/KK/AA/sets/backdoor flushes. I'm just not sure we're good enough here. I doubt it makes a huge difference either way though and either calling/folding isn't a huge mistake. One thing that I feel is a big misconception is people thinking they have to call river just because they called turn and a pretty good river card hit. I think you're ahead of his range on the turn, but not so much on river, and I think the fact that the backdoor flush hit may play a small part in this.