Thoughts on betting early in the week

[Machmood]

I dont really bet sports but started to these past few weeks, wondering on your guys thoughts on placing bets early in the week. Yesterday i decided to take dallas but waited untill 10 mins before kickoff and ended up paying -135 to take dallas -3.5 when it was -115 on saturday. Is it really that risky placing bets as earlt as wed for sundays game

[David BB]

Generally speaking - if you like the favorite/popular team (ie. if youre a square [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]), bet as early as possible. If you like the underdog bet late. This is because large amounts of puplic money tend to move the line in favor of the unpopular side.

Not always though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rjp]

Unless you have a massive amount of money to move when the limits are raised then betting early is much better than betting late.

[Machmood]

yea, i figured decide which way u wanna go, look at the opening line then decide if the publics perception will move the line in ur favor or against

[n2p]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you have a massive amount of money to move when the limits are raised then betting early is much better than betting late.

[/ QUOTE ]

why is this?
I have found that since often I am betting against the public its best to wait till the last minute to bet.

[CardSharpCook]

Sharps make up a lot of the money.

[StuckaRack]

Yup, very true especially big games or nationaly televised or Sunday night, Monday night games.

On these type of games bet the FAV early and the Dog at the very last minute.

I'm sure glad I did this with the NE/Indy game, getting
NE -4 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] NE/Indy opening line

[rjp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unless you have a massive amount of money to move when the limits are raised then betting early is much better than betting late.

[/ QUOTE ]

why is this?
I have found that since often I am betting against the public its best to wait till the last minute to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the lines are the softest at open.

That said, some lines are destined to move the other way, so you'd be stupid not to wait until later in the week for a better price.

[theclock]

Depends on your judgement. I have noticed that betting early is +EV if you are correct majority of the time.

I had money on the Skins last week when it came out at -3, the line quickly moved to -3.5 I ended getting a fortunate push cause I got in early at -3.

As posters have already mentioned, the Pats-Colts game was a no-brainer if you wanted Indy. That spread was bound to move up.