How often do the odds makers "get it right"?

[Phishy McFish]

By "get it right" I don't mean what they are going for (even money on both sides of the line). I mean, is the opening line generally a good indication of what the superior odds makers feel the final score will be in a football game OR is it strictly (or more significantly) related to what they feel the line needs to be to get the public money split down the middle?

My impression was that the opening line was the former and the line movement was attributed to the latter. Am I wrong?

[mulebennett]

Well, if the public is going to jump 100% on Florida +8.5, there's no way the bookies can allow that. So they might put the line at Florida +6.5 to even it out, and then adjust the line if it starts to get heavy on LSU. That's just my .02, I really don't know for sure.

[Phishy McFish]

Looking for a more "in the know" response.

[Happydaz]

(This is just my synthesis from reading this board the last three weeks. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong):

Lines are a combination of game prediction and risk tolerance. The opening lines are oddsmakers' best guess of how the game will turn out. When the line shifts during the week, you can attribute it to one of two reasons:

1) The books are shifting their risk. Not in terms of getting a perfect 50/50 split, but simply because it increases a book's liability if 90 percent of bettors are on one side of a line.

2) The books are acknowledging their initial guess might have been wrong, and shift the line to compensate after they see bettors flocking to one side.

[Grasshopp3r]

There should be some research on this topic, more so for the English companies as they are publicly traded.

My opinion is that the bookies do not perfectly balance their books in order to maximize profit. They take some risk in that practice. The money lines are more carefully balanced.

[Crusher19]

i think in football the lines seem to get more accurate around week 6 or 7

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact is that most bookies do not perfectly balance their books in order to maximize profit. They take some risk in that practice. There are several insider books and articles that will tell you/explain this.

[/ QUOTE ]

[dankhank]

books are more casual about their opening lines than you might expect, because they know the market will bang them into place before the limits get high.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
The opening lines are oddsmakers' best guess of how the game will turn out.

[/ QUOTE ]

When making a line, this is never a consideration.

It would be more accurate to say, "The opening lines are oddsmakers' best guess of how the public thinks the game will turn out."

If the public thinks an old and slow Muhammad Ali is better than a young and hungry Larry Holmes, the books will (and did) make Ali the favorite.

Oddsmakers are always asked for their predictions, and they often say, "I think the dog will win outright." Clearly, that's who he thinks will win--yet, he didn't make that team the favorite, because his opinion of the expected outcome is immaterial.

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
books are more casual about their opening lines than you might expect, because they know the market will bang them into place before the limits get high.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first oddsmaking assignment:

BOSS: Why don't you make some matchups for the Senior PGA tournament next week?

ME: I know absolutely nothing about golf. I can not name two current Senior PGA golfers.

BOSS: Don't worry about it. We've got some stats you can look at.

ME: (peeing my pants)

BOSS: (trying to comfort me) Look, we'll only take a nickel, use a 30-cent line, and move it aggressively.

(translation: we'll set the max bet at "only" $500, we'll make the favorite 30 cents higher than the dog--ie, -140/+110--and we'll move the line at least 25 cents every time a sharpie bets at it, which should quickly "bang them into place before the limits get high".)