I hit my ace on the turn, but it's a fold?

[kroeliewoelie]

I expect KK+ to 3bet preflop.

We are behind AK,33 for a total of 7 combinations. We split with AQ,AJ,AT = 22 combinations.

So we expect to split 3/4 of the time. 0.5*3/4*65=23 dollar or so. Losing 30 1/4 of the time = 8 dollars.

On average we win 15 dollars by calling here.

If we include AA,KK in his range and exclude AT. We lose to 11 combination and split with 14. In this case the EV is:
3/5*1/2*65-2/5*30=18-12 =6 dollars.


If 3x is in his range, than his range is ridicilously wide and we should even be more inclined to call.

Anyway, I think it's a call.