Random result grapher spreadsheet

[vers]

This is a hell of a lot of fun. I would never think that over a 2500 game sample at 9 ROI I could run at -2 ROI. Great work OP

[Salomonsson]

http://www.2mt.dk/sng.xls

Nice tool!

[mattiesmat]

I don't get the finish distribution part.
What do you have to put in the grey areas?

[vers]

percentage of 1sts, 2nds and 3rds matties.

[mattiesmat]

Percentage of overall or of top3 only?
For example if I have played 100 sng's, I finished 10 times 1st, 10 times 2nd and 10 times 3rd.
Do I have to put 10%, 10, 0.1 or 1?
Or do I have to put 33% (because 30 ITM, and 10/30=33.3%)?

[Salomonsson]

You put 10, 10 and 10

[dave_w11]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a hell of a lot of fun. I would never think that over a 2500 game sample at 9 ROI I could run at -2 ROI. Great work OP

[/ QUOTE ]

That does seem quite insane... RVGs ROI simulator says that is extremely unlikely. Using $27s and an even finish distribution it says the chance of that happening is 0% to the nearest %. Was everything definately entered correctly? I hope this was a freak occurance and not that something isn't somehow not working properly.

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.2mt.dk/sng.xls

Nice tool!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for hosting!

[ QUOTE ]
Percentage of overall or of top3 only?
For example if I have played 100 sng's, I finished 10 times 1st, 10 times 2nd and 10 times 3rd.
Do I have to put 10%, 10, 0.1 or 1?
Or do I have to put 33% (because 30 ITM, and 10/30=33.3%)?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can put in the percentage of top 3, or the overall percentage, or even the actual number of finishes in each position. The actual finish distribution is then scaled based on the ROI that you put in actual ROI (keeping the ratio of 1st:2nd:3rd in the same proportion as entered).

I set it like this so that you could for example put in a 1st:2nd:3rd ratio of say 1.2:1:1.1 and then see what happens when you input different ROIs, rather than having to play about adjusting the actual finish distribution to get the ROI you want.

[thunderb4ll]

So, just to clarify: The simulated results (ROI, profit, graph) are randomly generated results that take variance into account? In other words, the results indicate one of the many (thousands? millions?) of different possible ways "I could have ran" over x # of games. Also, I assume the simulated results become closer as the sample size is larger?

Is the above correct?

Also, how do I determine the lowest/highest simulated results for ROI/Profit?

[braminc]

is there any other way to 'calculate now' since im on a mac and F9 button doesnt seem to be doing anything.

also after i changed the buyin, shoudl i not have changed the payouts (not in grey) since theyre obv different, or will that mess it up?
THANKS DAVE

[braminc]

whoaaaa. for some reason when i clicked the 'save' button it ran the calculate now function. interesting. and the first sim said a 5% roi player can run at 9% over a 5k game sample. holy crap! i want that!