Folding KK Pre-flop

[Acevader]

Of course it is foldable - you juts need to click the fold button!

How do you know for sure your expectation from folding those 10 times was higher than getting it AI though?

[Renton]

because i know those players could only have had AA

[RapidEvolution]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an example hand. No reads on villain other than he has pretty solid stats.


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $84.80
BTN: $38.05
SB: $112.50
BB: $82
UTG: $22.10
UTG+1: $103.05
MP1: $158.50
Hero (MP2): $357.75

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $5</font>, Hero calls $5, 4 folds, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($16.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $8</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $34</font>, Hero calls $13

Turn: ($84.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $40</font>, Hero calls $40

River: ($164.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $40</font>, Hero calls $40

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes. Please 3bet preflop. The hand plays out totally differently when you do this.

[PokerFun007]

[ QUOTE ]
because i know those players could only have had AA

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in Renton's camp here. If I face a player with ultra-nitty stats, like 9/3, and he pushes over my 3bet all in, to me, it is +EV to fold. I've done it, and I'll do it again. I've done it and had the nit show me his Aces! This is at nl50 btw.

[RapidEvolution]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
because i know those players could only have had AA

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in Renton's camp here. If I face a player with ultra-nitty stats, like 9/3, and he pushes over my 3bet all in, to me, it is +EV to fold. I've done it, and I'll do it again. I've done it and had the nit show me his Aces! This is at nl50 btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

+1

[toymach776]

[ QUOTE ]
I've dropped 10 buy-ins in last 3 days running KK into AA

[/ QUOTE ]

wow. this is just you getting the short end of the variance stick. dont let it get to you and make you start second guessing yourself.

[friedace]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In a typical "raise, hero 3-bets, villain shoves" scenario- you are -EV to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this as you know. Villains show up with QQ and sometimes AK here enough. IME.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably one of the most productive posts about AA vs. KK I've read.

As for myself, I agree with your explanation and what Dan Harrinton says in HoH. It's interesting that even with people who fold KK pf based on reads, they never comment on the fact that their "read" might be wrong. Of course, they are always upfront with the fact that nits always show them AA, but what about the times they see nothing? Assuming this is still an amazing read, even w/o seeing the cards, isn't reasonable in my opinion and a positive selection bias with respect to the times AA was shown is obviously going to be in effect. What about the times the guy shows a total bluff when you laid down the KK? Or a weaker hand that AK even?

just my two cents.

[GiantBuddha]

There's a certain percentage of the time that your read can be wrong and a fold still be the best play. This depends on stack sizes and how much money you've already put in, i.e. pot odds. In a tournament, you're almost always getting such great pot odds that if villain ever doesn't have AA, you're making a mistake. The same cannot be said for 100BB cash games.

[Acevader]

I remember I once incorrectly laid KK down preflop and villain turned over Q10o for a total bluff. I felt like such a spaz.

I also think friedace has a point about the positive selection. There is - understandably - a smug factor when you fold KK and a nit shows AA for whatever reason. However, the vast majority of the time you never see what villain is hiding and no matter how strongly you feel about it you can't be 100% sure he's always returning two aces to the deck.

Ironically the only way to get reliable data would be to deliberately felt KK when you would have otherwise folded it and record the hand villain had, the pot and the outcome. Now repeat many thousands of times (think how massive your overall hand sample would be for that!!!) and report back.

[mce86]

[ QUOTE ]
My question is, do you ever fold KK pre-flop?? How tight does your opponent have to be for you to fold KK??

I've dropped 10 buy-ins in last 3 days running KK into AA and I'm wondering if I should have folded some of them. The problem is none of my opponents were overly tight. Some of them had good, solid stats, but not really tight enough for me to fold. At least I thought so anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
How many buy ins have you won with KK vs QQ, JJ, TT and AK , AQ...thats the tradeoff.