PLO8 $100 - River play with second nut full house

YKMM · #1 09-06-2007, 09:58 AM

Standard? Villain is loose preflop, 41/5/1.1 in 91 hands and no other reads. I have $62.50 left on the river, can folding be a consideration?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($95)
CO ($12.25)
Hero ($104.20)
SB ($55.55)
BB ($47.15)
UTG ($104.20)
UTG+1 ($40.90)
MP1 ($45.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.5, 2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $4.50.

Flop: ($13.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $9, MP2 calls $9.

Turn: ($31.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($31.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $18, MP2 raises to $80.5, Hero .....

franknagaijr · #2 09-06-2007, 10:10 AM

I know it's not the question, but why didn't you bet the turn? Two pair plus NLD seems like it's worth a shot and would have made your river decision much easier.

I'd put in the money on the river for the 'yes or no' question, it would be a crying call.

niss · #3 09-06-2007, 11:12 AM

Let's see. What hands could MP2 have that play this way.

1. Straight flush. While I'm not sure what he's got that would call a pfr with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], a check-raise on the river makes sense, as with the pre-flop action he knows you have at least 3 aces, and with his passivity throughout the hand you may very well bet, especially if you filled up.

2. Nut flush. If he's got that, then on the river he may have boated up. Obviously if he filled up, it's 50/50 as to whether he beats you or not.

3. Weaker flush. If he's retarded, maybe he thinks that he's trapped you on the river when you bet your trips. Check raise is stupid.

4. A worse full house (flopped set). Again, a check-raise on the river is idiotic, as he knows you have to have at least 3 aces and could very well have him crushed. With that hand, check calling >>>>>>>>>> leading river >> check raise. But at >40 VPIP, maybe he plays the hand this way.

I think this hand smells like a straight flush -- and the chances that he's doing it with a hand that you beat seem slim -- so I would reluctantly fold to the check raise. A river check raise is a bluff like 0% of the time here, so the only way you can call here is if you have this guy pegged as a retard, which you don't yet.

I dunno · #4 09-06-2007, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A river check raise is a bluff like 0% of the time here

[/ QUOTE ]

He could be doing this with an underfill, but that's pretty unlikely.

I dunno · #5 09-06-2007, 02:09 PM

Actually, to be honest, the first thing I thought was straight flush when I saw this post.

davebreal · #6 09-06-2007, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A river check raise is a bluff like 0% of the time here

[/ QUOTE ]

agree 100%.

tough laydown though. i usually call and lose here, but maybe the more prudent players can muck it.

niss · #7 09-06-2007, 04:16 PM

One thing I forgot to account for is the possibility that villain also has A-9. Probably changes things for the worse, if anything.

StrikeR300 · #8 09-06-2007, 08:55 PM

I agree with the bet turn line...

As played, & without a read I call: I've seen to many hold'em players moonlighting in PLO8 stacking off with 10's Full here at the $100 level to fold.

franknagaijr · #9 09-06-2007, 10:05 PM

BTW - In my original response I totally missed the one suit flop and the str8 flush possibility. Since you didn't throw out a tester on the turn, fold.

In fact, I'm not crazy about the 'value bet' on the river since you'll only get a crying call from a worse boat, or maybe a flush with an ace, but anything else will either fold or come over the top, leaving you in a tough spot. There's been 3 or 4 threads with similar river issues in the last few weeks with blocking/value bets leading to tough decisions.