AKs turns top two w/paired board in massive multiway pot

[Marquis]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody wants to fix my poker? Maybe its better than i thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be cool if it was that easy. There, Fixed Your Poker.

I say fold the turn because:
- most of the time one of your 4 outs is in somebody's hand so you only have 3 outs,
- sometimes the turn will be capped,
- it's 2 or 3 big bets you have to put in in a marginal spot, and
- I couldn't fold the river when I miss getting a brazillian to 1.

[Xylocain]

Hero folds the turn because:
1. One of these clowns has an 8.
2. The other one is sitting on most of your 'outs'.

[MattDog]

My bad. The converter lied about 4.7 BB at the start of the turn.

Which one are you using?

[bozlax]

The converter borked up your potsize. One the flop there are 7BB in. On the turn, it's 14.5BB, and that really should be 17BB; given your read on SB, cap the flop.

Why didn't you raise the turn the first time around? Again, based on your read there isn't a lot of reason to think the action so far indicates anybody has an 8, and even if somebody does you've got 4 outs to a boat and implied odds out the ass. Now that it's back to you, strap yourself in, bite down on a towel, and get out your



This is a high-variance situation, but the only thing you're REALLY worried about is more than one other player having AK, and one other having A8, leaving you drawing to .5 outs (you'd split if the case king fell).

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody wants to fix my poker? Maybe its better than i thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll not find anybody to touch your poker here, English.

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]


I say fold the turn because:
- most of the time one of your 4 outs is in somebody's hand so you only have 3 outs,
- sometimes the turn will be capped,
- it's 2 or 3 big bets you have to put in in a marginal spot, and
- I couldn't fold the river when I miss getting a brazillian to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of this sentiment:

1. (At least) one of my outs are in someone else's hands, so I do not have 4 outs to the nuts. Whether I have 3 (or fewer) outs remains to be seen.
2. I am also assuming by the turn action by the time it gets back to me the second time that I am up against at least one 8 (likely not in SB's hand - probably HJ), and am drawing.
3. Sometimes the turn WILL be capped - I have to figure this in to whether I will be calling.
4. Putting 2-3 big bets in marginally is not bad if it is marginally +EV (e.g getting correct pot odds)
5. Ah, what to do on a blank river. Well, that is a pickle, right? Lemme figure out the turn first:

Next step in my mind: implied odds. How many of the (potential) 16 BB that could go in on the river will be mine if I hit? Consider I will likely be up against 2 (or more) smaller boats, one of which will give me max action (the other A if an A rivers), and the other(s) that may not get away from their 8's.

Once we figure that out, we figure if 3 outs (or less!) are sufficient to call given implieds. I am getting a total of 31.5:2 odds if there is no raiser behind me or 36.5:3 if capped.

Anyone want to tackle this before I get my math on?

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]
The converter borked up your potsize. One the flop there are 7BB in. On the turn, it's 14.5BB, and that really should be 17BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand was manually converted, but:
Preflop, 7 people in for 2 bets apiece = 14 SB going into the flop.
Flop, 5 people in for 3 bets apiece = 15 SB
15+14 = 29 SB = 14.5 BB going into the turn.

[ QUOTE ]

Why didn't you raise the turn the first time around?


[/ QUOTE ]
Because I wanted to see if any of the clowns behind me was slowplaying an 8, and make my decision after that. During play, I thought giving a free/cheap card wouldn't be so bad as (at the time) I thought I was ahead of most hands (with 2 outs to beat me) or behind an 8, but I didn't take any flush draws into account. I am not way ahead of those.

[ QUOTE ]
Again, based on your read there isn't a lot of reason to think the action so far indicates anybody has an 8, and even if somebody does you've got 4 outs to a boat and implied odds out the ass.


[/ QUOTE ]

If by 'so far' you meant my first turn decision, I'd agree. If by 'so far' you meant my second turn decision, I disagree.

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This is a high-variance situation <snip>


[/ QUOTE ]

QFMFT there.

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone want to tackle this before I get my math on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Evidently not.

So, how many bets are going in on the river out of the 16 possible my opponents could put in? Given

1) The SB continues to be the aggressor and is first to act.
2) Any Ace is putting in 4 bets if an A rivers.
3) Any 8 is going to be hard pressed to get away as they get drug along.

I estimate between 8 and 12 BB of my opponent's money is going in on the river, depending on how many 8's are out, which card hits, and if any of the 8's are smart enough to get away.

My two cases:

If it is only called behind me on the turn, I was getting 31.5:2, but with implieds this goes to between 39.5:2 and 43.4:2, meaning calling with as few as 2 outs is correct, or VERY marginally incorrect.

If it is capped behind me on the turn, I was getting 36.5:3, but with implieds this goes to between 44.5:3 and 48.5:3, meaning calling with as few as 3 outs is correct.

Now, to the river. Given the action I've already seen on the turn, I agree with previous posters that I am folding if I do not hit, even getting a brazillion-to-1. I just don't see how I'm good here ever against 4 opponents.

[birdmanj]

Call the turn (even if it gets capped). If you hit your boat on the river raise it. If you don't, I would be very annoyed at having to fold two pair As & Ks, but it's still probably the best move.

Let me ask the more experienced players a question. I would expect that an 8 might be sitting with some of the players who have just been coming along for the ride and just calling. Would capping the betting on the turn possibly convince someone holding an 8 to fold? i.e. make them think "I'll play this against two maniacs, but not three" I wouldn't think this would work, but I'm not sure.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Would capping the betting on the turn possibly convince someone holding an 8 to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

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