25NL QJ TP+Flush Draw

wulfpacker21 · #1 07-29-2007, 11:59 PM

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO ($25.05)
Button ($15.30)
SB ($4.85)
BB ($26)
UTG ($25)
MP1 ($47.65)
Hero ($33.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.05) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2.05, CO calls $2.05.

Turn: ($6.15) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises to $11, Hero ?

Villian is 26/18/6

Villian looks like he has AQ or a set here

Kornspitz · #2 07-30-2007, 07:31 AM

AQ or a set seems most likely. But your rather small turn bet could be interpreted as a sign of weakness. As if you tried to take it down with a big cbet and then not wanting to show complete weakness by checking the turn.
Wouldn't you bet more with AQ or an overpair?

With his aggressive stats I think he could be making this play with a mid-pp as well, though not very likely.

Let's assume he's having AQ or a set most of the time.
We need to call for 8$, so with our 9 FD-outs and 20% chance of making the flush, we need to win an average pot of 40$ with the flush. The pot is currently 28$, so he must get in 6$ on the river. He will probably do this with AQ, and will most likely even get his remaining 11$ in the pot on the river with a set, so you are having the odds to call.

Chances of him beating us, if we make the flush are ignoreable, and there's still a chance that we are ahead or have the 3 Jacks as outs as well, so this is definetely a call.

The only reason to raise here could be if you think he is capable of doing this with ~88-TT and don't want to lose vs these hands by calling turn and c/f river. Don't think he folds AQ to a shove here.

SaulPaul · #3 07-30-2007, 08:26 AM

any1 else cbet 1/2 PS here for pot control?

Personally, I also check turn, free card is awesome. Can control pot. Makes him more likely to put more money in with lower pockets pairs.

If he bets, i prob would check raise, depending on the perceived FE obv. Altho it does look like a set, theres really not that many common ones out there? does a 26/18 call with 22 that often?

Also we have decent equity even against a tight range:

Board: Qc 6d 2d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.747% 40.75% 00.00% 502 0.00 { QdJd }
Hand 1: 59.253% 59.25% 00.00% 730 0.00 { AA, 99, 33-22, AQs, KQs, AQo }