$200 Sit N Go Question #3

[paddymcg21]

I actually had this exact scenario yesterday online come to think of it (except mine was a 25 dollar sng not a 200 dollar 1.) I had kings in the bb and 2 people moved in against my short stack. I called, 1 showed A10 and the other AK, i was loving it. . . . until the ace hit the turn and i wanted to cry, but thats how it goes i suppose. Maybe as mine was lower stakes there would be more "donkey play" but even for a lot of money id be calling here.

[wiggs73]

paddy,

Have you thought that maybe since a bunch of really good SNG players have said things like "easy fold", maybe you're missing something?

There's a very clear, cut and dry, mathematical answer to why folding is correct.

[paddymcg21]

Do you want to impart your expert knowledge as to how folding the second best starting hand in holdem poker should be folded in this spot? Also don't assume im not a good sng player myself. Bigging yourself or others up doesn't make what I have to say invalid. Like I think I explained, it all depends what you're trying to do and what read you have on your opponents. If 3rd is good enough for you I still don't see myself folding here very often at all. KK shorthanded: Why play poker if your afraid to call here?? I'd appreciate if you post back to be objective as opposed to try and belittle me as a way of making your argument seem more valid. "Folding is correct" How can you say that it is "clear, cut and dry mathematical" considering you have no clue what your opponents have?? That claim in my view is contradicatory, what do you think? At school I was taught that in order for a mathematical problem to be clear cut, one must have all the information at one's disposal. Cheers.

[paddymcg21]

Oh hang on, didnt realise all 3 of them are all in. Must have misread. Still I reckon it's far from an easy fold. Id call more often that not depending on my read of the players at the table. Still i'd like to hear ur explanation Wiggs.

[dutches]

You are joking right?
Gotta push.

[Kerth]

The goal is to win money, not chips.

[nineinchal]

fold those kings and get into the money and get a prize. then worry about second place. this problem is directly out of "Tounament Poker for Advanced Players" by David Sklansky. Refer to page 135 "Folding Aces." Folding the kings would be the correct play.

[jogsxyz]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually had this exact scenario yesterday online come to think of it (except mine was a 25 dollar sng not a 200 dollar 1.) I had kings in the bb and 2 people moved in against my short stack. I called, 1 showed A10 and the other AK, i was loving it. . . . until the ace hit the turn and i wanted to cry, but thats how it goes i suppose. Maybe as mine was lower stakes there would be more "donkey play" but even for a lot of money id be calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold, you're 50/50 to be ITM at the end of this hand. If you play AND win, you're 50/50 to be ITM. But you had to survive to be 50/50.
The situation in your case may be close. Would need all chip stacks for a ICM calc.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh hang on, didnt realise all 3 of them are all in. Must have misread. Still I reckon it's far from an easy fold. Id call more often that not depending on my read of the players at the table. Still i'd like to hear ur explanation Wiggs.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK hopefully this will end the thread. Let's assume for simplicity that whatever you do, the guy with the 2000 stack will beat the other players (this is the intermediate case for you, obviously it's better for you if the 9000 stack wins and worse if the 1500 stack wins). If you fold, the chip stacks after the hand will be:

7000
5800
700

If you call and win, they'll be:

7000
2500
4000

The ICM equity of your stack in the first hand is 22.5% and in the second 32.75%. (If you don't know what the ICM is, look it up. Basically it's a model that calculates what your stack is worth as a percentage of the prize pool. It wraps your chances of coming first, second and third up neatly into one number).

How often do we need to win to break even vs folding? Let P(win) be the percentage of the time we win. Then:

P(win) * 32.75 = 22.5 (to break even)

P(win) = 22.5/32.75

P(win) = 0.687

We need to win 68.7% of the time to break even versus folding. Since aces only beat 3 random hands 63.9% of the time, this is a fold with aces. I simplified the problem a little, but I doubt a full analysis would give any different a result. Kings are a huge fold, aces are almost certainly a fold too, but closer.

EDIT: I forgot to include antes in this analysis. But they're too small to make any difference.

[rakemeplz]

[ QUOTE ]
Four players left.

You are in last place with 1000. Others have 1500, 2000, and 9000. 150-300 blind. 25 ante. Its your big blind. 1500 moves in. 2000 moves in. 9000 plays. 775 to you. You have two kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm probably stating the obvious here, but you some guys are getting levelled by thinking skanalansky didn't know the answer to this before posting.

This thread was to create interesting discussion and to disabuse people of their misguided SNG notions. Perhaps he even thought it would turn into a what to do with AA in this same situation tangent thread.

Anyways, I thought it was pretty good thread.