value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...

[Daut44]

[ QUOTE ]
It makes zero sense to raise a straight draw on the turn unless he thinks gaucho is double barreling so much that the fold equity of a raise is >>> than the equity in having a draw + the option to fire river if missed... which seems unlikely to me when there are not a whole lot of draws out there so double floating and firing river should look pretty strong..

I really think Hazards has complete air or a 5/K/77, so it seems like a mere question of frequencies.. but this is NOT a value shove lol..

[/ QUOTE ]

its very possible youre right.

youre def right in the sense that gaucho is never getting a better made hand to call, so in that sense its not a value shove at all.

but i think its possible he has some draws on the turn, your logic does make sense, however, an action in the moment (especially on UB) plus what you mentioned about having so much FE on the turn that raising is better than calling.

however, thats not the most important thing in this hand. the majority of the time, he has 5x, Kx, 77, etc etc or is bluffing, and gaucho thinks he can systematically eliminate most of those hands from his range.

the semibluffing hands are just a matter of him having a few more hands in his range that gaucho beats/gets to call shoves, but given the logic of how the hand was played (from an outside perspective might not exist), gaucho thinks those big hands are very unlikely.