Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[Lloyd]

This is Part 5 of Play a Hand with the Masters #3. If you haven't already responded to Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 you should do so first. The panel included <font color="blue">Jason Strasser</font>, <font color="green">Zee Justin</font>, and <font color="purple">Shaniac</font>. <font color="black">Comments by the panel are in their appropriate colors.

Setup
$650 PokerStars Qualifier for the PokerStars Carribean Adventure (PCA)
9-Handed
Blinds 10/20
Hero is Strassa
No reads on villain

Stacks
Hero (CO) t2540
BB t3245

Pre-Flop
All fold to hero who has 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t80. Button and SB fold. BB calls t60.

<font color="blue">Jason:I'm not 'stealing blinds' per se. I'm raising a deceptive hand which can make big hands and win big pots. Deep stacked you want to be in situations where you can win lots of pots without showdown, make tough hands to read that can stack people off, and hit runner runner draws and make solid value bets. I also want to please Shania, so in her name I'm going to be raising lots of hands to protect the value of my hands.

<font color="green">Zee Justin: I find that blind steals simply don't work often early in these tournaments, so I'm only opening in late position if I don't mind a call. With position and a potentially deceptive hand like 75s, I don't mind getting a call from a blind and playing some poker after the flop, so the raise is fine. </font>

<font color="purple">Shaniac:If you're raising 75s, or any hand really, in level 1, it really shouldn't be with the intent of "stealing blinds." Those red chips in level 1 are worht about as much as a pez candy.

I'm never "stealing" blinds in level 1 or 2. I'm bumping my hands strictly for value. Or, if I do decide to get cute with a hand like 75s when the stacks are deep, it would be with the hope of flopping something like two-pair and stacking someone who's willing to go broke with less that early. It's obviously not a big deal to raise 80 chips and then fold the hand when you have 2500-ish still remaining, so there is certainly upside to moving chips around ealry.

<font color="black">Flop
Pot: t170

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t140.

<font color="blue">Jason:I bet. Pretty standard size. I bet a lot of flops so this would be no different, even though I got pretty much an amazing flop for my hand.

A normal turn decision would be if villain CR me on the flop, I'd call and probably make a decision on the turn to call or raise a small amount so that I can show down my hand cheap (intending to probably check behind most rivers... I'd do this if I thought he was drawing) and prevent him from bluffing me off the best hand.

If he just called my turn bet and a friendly turn card came I'd bet if checked to. Playing this IF A do B game, though, is pretty silly IMO because there are just so many variables to consider at this point. Stuff like timing, board texture, etc...

<font color="green">Zee Justin: I'd bet 160 on the flop. It's not too strong as the blind can simply see it as a continuation bet. I raised preflop, how could I have hit the 975 flop? Also, I really hate giving a free card on this flop for obvious reasons. It's an easy bet.

Assuming the villian check calls the flop and checks the turn, I'm firing another bet on any turn except for a 6 or an 8. I have a strong hand, the board is draw heavy and scary, and I don't need any more deception than I already have. Bet Bet Bet.

If I get check raised on the flop my action partially depends on the size of the raise and what I think it means, but more often than not I will just call and play more poker on the turn. I'm not comitted for all my chips yet with bottom two, but chances are my hand is still good so I'm not going to give up easily.

<font color="purple">Shaniac:Doubtful I'm checking the flop. Since I'd probably make a continuation bet with any standard hand that I raised preflop like AQ or AK+, the "weak lead" is a no brainer. Depending on your opponent, there's certainly a chance he'll go to the felt with you with as little as a pair of 8s. I'd probably bet around 150.

There's no way to say what my plan is for the turn. I mean seriously there are way too many variable to answer this part of the question competently. I'm trying to get the money in on the flop, that's the answer. If I bet and my opponent raises, I'm probably pushing.

<font color="black">Flop - continued

BB raises to t300. Hero calls t160.

<font color="blue">Jason:When the Villain CR me I made a decision to call for a few reasons. Mostly, I didn't want to blow him off a worse made hand. I didnt think we were shallow enough where, if I reraised, I would be up against anything but a draw (which is not far behind), or a set. I figure I maximize my value versus pair of 9s, overpairs, etc, and keep the pot smaller when im behind (because I'm in no way tied to this pot). This, IMO, clearly outweighs charging my opponent to draw.

As for a range of hands, kind of irrelevant to think about a range here expect that I want to keep in hands that want to show down and are worse. He could have air, 2 pair, set, draw, etc. The texture of the turns means so much. So does timing. So do lots of things. I don't really want to play a hypothetical guessing game of what my plan is down the road.

<font color="green">Zee Justin:The opponent has made a small check raise. His hand hasn't been defined yet. He could have a monster, a draw, or he could simply be feeling me out to see if I hit the flop, so one pair and no pair are also possibilities. Basically we don't know what he has, so we have to put him on a wide range.

At this point in time, I think our hand is most likely the best, but we certainly don't have enough information to be sure of that.

If we raise to 900 or so, we are putting the opponent to a decision. Him folding will probaly be the most likely scenario in which case we win a medium pot. If he raises, he's putting us to a decision for all our chips. The chances that he has a draw or a strong one pair are strong enough that we should probably call, but it's not exactly a pretty scenario. Even when we're ahead, he'll generally have many outs against us. If he just calls the raise, we're put in an even tougher spot. Is he calling because he hes drawing to his flush? Is he calling with a monster to let us do the betting?

Instead, I'd rather call and see what happens on the turn. If a scare card comes, we can play the hand more cautiously and even fold to a big enough bet. If the turn is an offsuit deuce, I'd probably raise all-in if he makes a potish sized bet. Notice that if we play this way, we can minimize our losses when he hits on the turn and maximize our chances of winning when the turn misses him.
Part of the problem with raising is that we are simply risking too much for not enough gain. We are essentially going all-in for the medium sized pot by making any sort of flop raise. If we wait until the turn, we probably get another bet out of him and also have much more information before making a decision for all our chips.

<font color="purple">Shaniac:Since it's hard to get a read this early (or there are no reads on this opp. in any case), there are are a few things I'm focusing on: extracting value when I'm ahead, trying not to lose action likewise, and not going broke against a monster or big draw.

I obviously don't have the "right" answer here, but I think your decision should be based largely on your outlook for the tournament. Once hero decides to flat call, he has made a larger decision, namely that his hand is too vulnerable to play hard here and that mean he's folding a lot of times on the turn to players who are competently agressive and will follow through with a real bet. Against the same opponent of course, I'm planning on raising the turn if it bricks, and betting if he checks the brick. But there are tons of awful turn cards and just smooth-calling means I'm going to treat them accordingly and give up the hand in many spots.

Calling is perfectly reasonable, especially at that price, but I'm going to make a case for raising the majority of the time (I have no clue what the exact % is, but if I was Harrington I might say I'd raise 70% and call 30% of the time). The raise to 300 can mean a lot of things, but I tend to think against a random online opponent, it's going to be a feeler bet more often than a set. AKhh and almost any pair in the deck are also likely possibilities. I'm popping it to 800 here usually and calling his allin (albeit probably unhapily by that point). The raise will win the pot a lot of the time by itself, and I believe bottom two is a pretty strong hand against the mentioned range.

If he calls the 500, you're not exactly destined to broke, either. There are so many times (especially early, in a "big" tournament online) when your opponent will call the re-raise and check fold to an allin. Naturally, it's gonna come down to your ability to read his action in relation to the turn.

As for my opponent's range of hands, I'm expecting to see big suited overs and 1-pair hands more often than a set.

<font color="black">Turn
Pot: t770

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t520. BB calls t520.

<font color="blue">Jason:This check confused me. I'm actually looking for help here. What does this mean? Could he actually be check raising me with a real hand 2 streets?

My initial thought, and the one I had during the hand, was that this check was a sign that he wanted to show his hand down, but didn't want to inflate the pot. A 9, overpair, or draw fit this bill. I really felt like the draw usually fires the turn, though. Air was also a very good possibility--he could've just been taking a shot at the flop. It's probably a slightly important consideration to get my opponent to fold air here, but not crucial. I was mostly in extracting value out of a hand that could pay me off, and charge for the draw. On the turn, charging for a draw is more effective, providing that I don't think he will CR me and force me to maybe fold the best hand.

I decided to bet but to be honest, had no idea what I was going to do if he CR me 2 streets in a row. I think I might fold or might close my eyes and stick it in. Some people like to be the person shutting out the action with a draw. If he bets and I raise him, and he has a draw, he may not see the river. So many might actually try to CR me here.

This was the most interesting part of the hand for me. I decide to bet my standard 3/4 or so, with no plan if he CR me except to re-evaluate.

<font color="green">Zee Justin:It now looks like the opponent was on a draw. I don't know why people do it, but I often see people check raise small on the flop as if it will give them a free card on the turn even though they are out of position. IMO it's a terrible play, but I see it very often.

It's still possible he has something like TT or A9o, but I'd be pretty confident we have the best hand right now. I don't see the double check raise with a set or the nut str8 very often.

I'd bet 700. Our hand is still very vulnerable, and we can't make it cheap to see the river. I don't like a bigger bet of say, 1000, because that just makes river play awkward and commits us a little more than I would like.

Note that if we bet 700 on the turn and our opponent calls, the pot on the river will be 2190, we will have 2160 behind. If instead we bet 1,000 and the opponent calls, there wil be 2790 in the pot, and we will have 1860 behind. If a scary card comes, say the ten of hearts, and our opponent sets us in on the river, our pot odds will make this a tough hand to get away from. However, if we only bet 700 on the turn, we can easily fold to a pot sized all-in on the river if we think he got there. It's not a huge difference, but you should always be aware of how big the pot size and stack sizes will be on future streets. If you are the one betting, you are in control of these numbers.

If I get checkraised, my whole stack is going in. I just don't see a legit hand double check raising here.

<font color="purple">Shaniac:When he checks there is a good chance the he has decided to give up. I still think big suited overs and one-pair hands like 88 are very likely.

His flop check-raise might have been just a lazy feeler bet and once he's seen that he can't shake hero, he's now decided to check-fold. His turn check is an unconventional line and I guess againt tricky opponnents I'd expect him to have a set of quuens or top two some of the time too.

What am I thinking about? Is he a tricky opponent? Is he ready to check-fold? How harmful or helpful would a free card be?

I'd bet 575 and most likely call a check-raise allin, but I'm not really sure.

<font color="black">River
Pot: t1810

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t1640 and is all-in. Villain calls t1640.

<font color="blue">Jason:Well, here the turn action comes back to play. I felt like a set or a 2 pair is going to almost always follow through on turn. I felt like a draw that got there will almost always lead the river. The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river. I really thought he had a 9 or possibly an overpair. Better 2 pairs were options, and so was a flush. But again, I remember I kept thinking about his strange turn play!

Well, this is the fun bet of the hand. A bet of about 600-800 here will probably be interpreted much stronger than my all in. My goal here is essentially to move in and to get the villain to think I have nuts (huge hand), or air. Generally this bet is going to be interpreted that way. I had respect for the villain, and thought he might look me up with a weak hand if I did this. I certainly thought my AI had more value then a standard value bet. So few players will value bet overpairs, 2 pairs, even sets like this. Almost all will either check behind or bet smaller. I used this against my opponent here, and tried to get him to look me up with a weak hand. I thought a long time about checking, but thought there would be significant value in my bet and that the odds that he checked to me a flush were very small, or at least small enough for me to justify this bet.

<font color="green">Zee Justin:The last thing I want is to have to deal with a check raise on this river, so I'm just checking behind. It felt like he had a draw before, so there's a decent chance he caught his flush on the river. There's also a chance we are ahead here, but it's not worth the risk of a check raise to bet. If he had a one pair hand like A9o, hes not going to pay off very much on this river anyway.

If I did bet, it would be something small like 600. He wouldn't pay off a bet any bigger than that with a hand we are ahead of. However, I don't think we are ahead often enough to make a value bet of 1/3rd of the pot here. Let's take the free showdown, and hope he didn't hit his hearts.

<font color="purple">Shaniac:I don't see what's to be gained by betting the river. Unfortunately by this point, you're two pair hand has already been cracked by villain's flush draw, or villain was there already.

The only reason to bet the river would be to get villain to fold a better hand (and it now seems somewhat likely that villain had bottom-two beat already), and that's really not happening, since it's unlikely for hero to have been on the flush draw. Even if hero could represent a flush here, villain will probably pay him off with only hands that beat hero's 2p....I can't imagine any one-pair hand giving hero value on the river.

<font color="black">Showdown

Hero has 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for two pair.
Villain has T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for a pair of tens.

Hero collects t5090 from the pot.

<font color="blue">Jason:I think the turn is the key street. A significant portion of the time I will check behind here and call a bet on most rivers or bet if checked to on most rivers. I made the pot big here given my read, and for this hand it worked. I actually thought the villain played this hand well. I trusted him enough to be able to make a big call. I'm not in love with his flop play.

<font color="green">Zee Justin:Overall, I like the way the hand was played up until the river. I would have preferred bigger bets on the flop and turn, but it's not that big of a deal either way. I don't like the push on the river. If he was playing a set or two pair slowly, it's unlikely that he'll decide to fold on this river. He's almost certainly never folding a straight or a flush, so there's not much bluffing value on the river. Therefore, I must assume it's a value push.

I just don't think he's going to call often enough with a worse hand like A9, TT or even something like KQ. I expect him to fold these hands significantly more often than he will pay off a push. Obviously if we are always ahead, there's nothing to lose with a push, but the villian will have us beat every now and then. Most players will bet the river with a flush, but that doesn't mean everyone will. Even though I expect to be beat less than 50% of the time, I imagine we're beat here often enough to make a push -EV.

If I were the villain in this hand:

Often I would reraise TT preflop, but it's not necessarily bad to just call that preflop. So far so good. I like a check raise on the flop, but his check raise was way too small. I'd make it 450 or 500 probably. The spot he put himself in on the turn is ugly. He doesn't have enough information about Jason's hand. I suppose it's fine to think that he has the best hand on the turn still, but a check call puts him in a terrible spot on the river, and a check raise commits too many chips. For those reasons, I'd probably fold the turn even though I thought my hand was probably good. Against a bad abc player, I might call, but Jason is obviously capable of a 3rd barrel as well as thin value bets which makes the river very hard to play. TT has to fold the river. What hand does he put Jason on that TT beats? Is Jason going to play A9o like this? I suppose he might think Jason has a hand like AKo, but he's simply beat far too often to call the river.

<font color="black">Discussion Topics

1) Comments on the panel's thoughts.

2) Overall play by the hero.

3) How did the villain play this hand?

4) Essentially, anything relating to the overall play of the hand.

[Lloyd]

Jason,

Can you try to elaborate on the river push. That's the one part of this hand that still doesn't make sense to me. You talk about your read of the villain. Did you look into his soul? Seriously, what was it about his play that made you think that 1) you're hand was good and 2) he'd call with such a (relatively) weak hand?

When you talk about making a read (in an online game) what factors are you considering?

Thanks.

[CardSharpCook]

I never think like that, but you are right. The push makes more sense. I'm very surprised by Shane's and Zee's river decisions. After the turn action it seems so obvious that you are good here 90% of the time.

Other comments: All three recommeneded betting more on every street than I did. My philosophy is that a more attractive mistake is easier to make. Thus, I make bets that are wrong to call, but not overly so. I think I may be costing myself here. However, Zee seemed to want to blow him out on the turn. I found that stragne. I think a lot of the hands that we want calling (1P hands that think they are good) are going to fold to overbet turns.

I was dissappointed that 2 of the 3 panel check this river. I was also dissappointed that this seemed to be the consensus in the River thread. I hope that posters here will examine the river again. "oh he's got the flush draw!" is just so less likely given A)turn play B) river check C) ODDS! - 1P hands are much more likely than flush draw hands. He has to be both suited, and suited in hearts. It is just so much more likely that he has a pair. You all know that I play 1000s of limit hands every day. When the flush comes on the river, I'm still betting 90% of the time. Why? Well, I look at how they played the hand. If the flop/turn action screams draw, I might not bet it, but if I have 2p, I still do. It is just so much more likely that they have a weaker hand than my 2p than the flush. And yes, there is a difference in my risk in L than in NL, but the math still works. It is a bet. bet bet bet.

[NoahSD]

I really can't believe that 2 out of the 3 panelists check the river behind. I think that's much more interesting than jason's decision to push (although that's a good topic by iteself).

My problem with a check behind is that villain's actions up to here make it pretty clear to me that he's not ahead. I think the chances of villain being ahead are completely dwarfed by the chances that villain is behind and calls some kind of a bet.

[stokken]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, this is the fun bet of the hand. A bet of about 600-800 here will probably be interpreted much stronger than my all in. My goal here is essentially to move in and to get the villain to think I have nuts (huge hand), or air. Generally this bet is going to be interpreted that way. I had respect for the villain, and thought he might look me up with a weak hand if I did this. I certainly thought my AI had more value then a standard value bet. So few players will value bet overpairs, 2 pairs, even sets like this. Almost all will either check behind or bet smaller. I used this against my opponent here, and tried to get him to look me up with a weak hand. I thought a long time about checking, but thought there would be significant value in my bet and that the odds that he checked to me a flush were very small, or at least small enough for me to justify this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Simply put. FANTASTIC!

[grandgnu]

1) Comments on the panel's thoughts.

The panel was pretty much in line with my thought process and betting throughout most of the hand (although on the flop I advocated a bet of 75-100 to induce a call or check-raise. I stuck with a call of the small check-raise, and a bet of 500-700 on the turn. On the river I hadn't been able to decipher my opponents holding, and opted to check it down)

2) Overall play by the hero.

I think hero did fine, although I still don't like that push on the river, or any bet for that matter. Villian hasn't defined his hand enough for me to feel comfortable putting my tournament on the line. With the Queen and flush cards out, how often is 10/10 going to pay your push off?

3) How did the villain play this hand?

Villian failed to raise enough on the flop with the check-raise. Perhaps he was scared of a pair bigger than his own. His check-call when the Queen on the turn hits is 50/50, and his call of the river push is terrible)

4) Essentially, anything relating to the overall play of the hand.

I still dislike a bet or push on the river. I don't think you're getting called by worse hands often enough to make the bet valuable, and the risk for losing your entire stack (which still has value) and being eliminated from the tournament are very real here

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shaniac:I don't see what's to be gained by betting the river. Unfortunately by this point, you're two pair hand has already been cracked by villain's flush draw, or villain was there already.

The only reason to bet the river would be to get villain to fold a better hand (and it now seems somewhat likely that villain had bottom-two beat already), and that's really not happening, since it's unlikely for hero to have been on the flush draw. Even if hero could represent a flush here, villain will probably pay him off with only hands that beat hero's 2p....I can't imagine any one-pair hand giving hero value on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Simply put. FANTASTIC!

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Seriously though, just wanted to say thanks to all involved, I think this was the best installment of the series to date.

[Yuv]

I would have never bet that river and I need to take a long deep look at myself for that. Great hand, great analysis. Thanks guys.

[woodguy]

Well done by all.

Thanks Lloyd, Jason, Justin, and Shane.

Not getting full value for my hands at the river is a big leak for me.

I'm not sure I could push this river, although I agree the non-bet on the river is a pretty big green light.

Excellent work all, really enjoyed this one.

Regards,
Woodguy

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
The villains timing was not strong, I remember, on the river. I really thought he had a 9 or possibly an overpair. Better 2 pairs were options, and so was a flush. But again, I remember I kept thinking about his strange turn play!

[/ QUOTE ]

anyone want to elaborate?