Calling riverbet with underpair

[hennnerz]

Some people say pot river bets are always bluffs. Can you call here? Villain is

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $50
CO: $47.25
Button: $66.75
SB: $45.95
Hero: $144.55

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, SB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($5, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $8</font>, Hero calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($21, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $16.5</font>.
Hero...?

Villain is 28/3 over 300 hands. His post flop AF: 1.2 - 1.5 - 6.0

[Ramana]

Bet flop. Fold turn, fold river. Mmmmh that was easy...

[jjb108]

Re: river bluffs and PSB. If villain wakes up on river its usually a donked 2 pair ftw. There are exceptions such as busted flushes and possibly on paired boards. Figuring out is read dependant.

55 isn't good enough to play sherriff in this hand and I dump to the minraise. Fold river as played.

[Quester]

Why call the turn minraise from a 1.5AF? Do you expect two clubs to be the dominant part of his range? You aren't ahead of anything else really.

[hennnerz]

Because the check behind on the flop made my hand look as weak as it is. He should know that the 3 on the turn wont improve my hand from the flop. So a min raise could be a small attempt at stealing the pot. The low AF may be a sign his raises are small and generally weak.

I am just over thinking the hand here I believe. A stab at the pot on the flop then shutdown if called is optimal.

[cabdo]

Fold. Smells like he's slow-playing trips on the flop.

[mookboi]

Although this is blind battle and therefore the hand plays a bit differently, I think you have to bet this flop.

It's a paired flop, meaning that he's less likely to have hit it, there's 1 high card on the flop, and it looks scary if he doesn't have it. In addition, his flop AF is ridiculously low. If homeboy CRs you, you know you are beat and are done with the hand.

After checking the flop, I think your turn stab at it is decent, however after he minraises you, I think it's a clear fold. I don't know if Baluga Theorem is the proper reasoning, but his AF tells you he got a hand. In addition, there's one more street to go where he's first to act, and he will most likely bet it. We have like 5% chance of hitting a 5, and our hand is beat most often. Clear fold. As played, clear fold on river because of reasoning above.

[hennnerz]

His fold to cbet stat was like 32% I think that was my main reasoning for not betting the flop.

Should I be letting the stat effect thought process in this spot?

[jjb108]

Need a good number of hands for the sample size to be good (i.e. datamined). On 150 hands, don't base your decision on this.

[hennnerz]

how about 300 hands [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]