25/50 Live Flopped Flush

[cts]

i don't particularly like checking the flop

[ttgirl]

i think you have to call, but this would definitely be a fold if he had 300bbs like the rest of the table.

[httassadar]

Some mathematics.

Pot odds = 5800/18300 = 0.3169

hand analysis
30% vs two high diamonds K8+ A8+, 2 outs, 8% chance to win, so 30%*8% = 2.4%
10% vs diamonds 7x 2x 27, 1 out, just no chance
30% vs one high diamond, 70% to win, so 21% chance
30% vs sets, 70% to win, so 21% chance

your chance = 44%

hence CALL

[Nielsio]

Board: 4d 6d Qd

Wins Ties Equity
46.20% 0.00% 46.20% ( 3d5d )
53.80% 0.00% 53.80% ( 44,66,QQ,46s,Ad7d,8d9d,9dTd,TdJd,JdKd,Ad8d,Ad9d,Ad Td )



I doubt I can think of enough XdXd combinations that he limps UTG with to get you below 31%.

Also, your read seems not strong enough to say he NEVER semibluffs. And god knows he might show up with KK/AA.

[captZEEbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Some mathematics.

Pot odds = 5800/18300 = 0.3169

hand analysis
30% vs two high diamonds K8+ A8+, 2 outs, 8% chance to win, so 30%*8% = 2.4%
10% vs diamonds 7x 2x 27, 1 out, just no chance
30% vs one high diamond, 70% to win, so 21% chance
30% vs sets, 70% to win, so 21% chance

your chance = 44%

hence CALL

[/ QUOTE ]i think some of these numbers may be off . I doubt it's 30% one high diamond if this guy is as nitty as he sounds.

[ahnuld]

nor is it 46s. Leading flop might be better as CTS already said. Id probably call. If he ever does this with something like AdQx or a set we are in pretty good shape. Not sure if he would though, but [censored] it, 2 outs

[StackItUp]

Ariel,

How did the blackjack session finish on Monday morning. This is Jason and i was playing in the 2 seat next to vanessa.

[highhustla]

[ QUOTE ]
The sad thing is the only thing that comes across in your post is your rudeness. Why are you so rude towards elderly people? People that age should be respected and not mocked. Would you like it if it was your Dad/Grandad? Bang out of order in my view.

For the hand; call.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I think of old bitter nits, the first thing that comes to mind is respect.

EDIT: I googled this!

[ QUOTE ]
"Bang out of order" is very common contemporary British slang, and is applied to both situations or people's behaviour. It's invariably used figuratively, and means "unacceptable to such a degree that it causes outrage, offence or shock."

[/ QUOTE ]

Old, bitter, nitty AND British! Awesome.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

man, they always have it here, and they don't think that a set is "it" and you can't ebat anything else they would think was "it" so i think i'd fold.

i'd prob bet the flop frequently and CR smaller to have more room for manuevering in the hand, prob to like 1500 or osmething

[aislephive]

I haven't read any responses yet, but anyways this is such a sick spot. How loose is UTG+1? Does he limp and call raises a lot? How often has he raised preflop? This stuff is pretty crucial to analyzing his range. I'd say a hand range like the one below is probably pretty accurate assuming he isn't overly loose (plays any two suited).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.005 secs 4,950,000 games/sec

Board: Qd 6d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.293% 31.29% 00.00% 7745 0.00 { 5d3d }
Hand 1: 68.707% 68.71% 00.00% 17005 0.00 { 66, 44, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, As7s, Ad2d, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, AdQc, AdQh

We need 31.6% equity to make the call correct, and we have 31.3% given this range. You could tweak it a little to make a call correct or tweak it a little more to make it more of a fold (ie add more flush combos). I could see a live player occasionally playing QQ like this as well, but that's pretty unlikely.

Some more specific reads would help a ton, even little things. Could he go broke here with like bottom two pair? Is Q6s in his range to limp/call preflop?

As it is, I think calling and folding have around the same EV in the long run. Calling or folding is never going to be much of a mistake either way.