thin river value

[Guruman]

so I feel like I've been finding this recurring situation where there's $$ to be won (at least at microstakes). Specifically:

when headsup on the river in position, if villain bets and we raise he's really unlikely to reraise (or shove) as a pure bluff.

Given that we can look at bet/shoves on the river as big hands almost uniformly across lots and lots of player types - this gives us the opportunity to squeeze some value from more marginal hands all limit-styled and whatnot.

an ex:

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $6.50
UTG+1: $20.35
CO: $13.45
Guruman: $34.55
SB: $18.70
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Guruman is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $1</font>, SB calls, 2 folds.

so I raise with an ok pf hand and position trying to get hu or pick up the extra posted blind. I also raise alot, so there's that. When sb calls I'm thinking that he's got the standard speculative range of pp, AXs and some suited connectors.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($2.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman bets $1.75</font>, SB calls.

standard cont bet on a toughish to hit flop. villain makes a strong but passive play by calling a big bet there. At this point I have to think that he's either got some of the flush draw, a pp, and occasinoally he's slowplaying a set. I haven't seen this guy float air yet, and while that's a possiblity I'll discount that pretty heavily on this board given the pf action.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($6, 2 players)
SB checks, Guruman checks.

On the turn I picked up a weak flush draw and villain checks again. Having just re-checked the NLHTandP ref on when you should be more likely to semibluff when your draw has less value (either in pure equity or implied villain calling mistakes), and less likely to semibluff when the draw itself holds more value (ditto). Given the weakness of my draw I should have put another bet in there on the turn to try to push villain off of a pp or random split pair instead of checking the way that I did. I checked because I put his range on a lot of showdown-worthy hands and draws that didnt want to go anywhere. Because of that I felt like I'd have to risk too much to buy a fold here. Again, I now think that was wrong.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($6, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $4</font>, SB calls.

given the turn action, I was in an interesting situation on the river. I induced a bluff, so I was likely to get bet at by any made flush, Qx, and better, and of course some pure bluffs. I think villain's line is crap almost no matter what he has because there's not enough value in there and there's no fold equity either.

when he leads for such a small amount after I induce I'm super inclined to raise it up lightly here for a few reasons:

-I don't think he'll ever re-raise as a pure bluff - therefore I'm not afraid to re-open the betting (because I"m comfortable folding)
-along the same lines, I can raise an amount that doesn't commit my stack
-I its really unlikely he'll make this kind of bet with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
-I think it is likely that he'll have a weaker flush or some other hand that's trying to price its way to showdown, and lots of these hands will call moderate raises.
-I'm unlikely to 'accidentally' value-raise a second-best hand. This will be the case if villain holds the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but really that's it.


[/ QUOTE ]
really the crux of the whole thing is based on the fact that I believe villain absolutely will not bet/reraise as a pure bluff in this situation. Its just too complex, and too risky in most spots. Very good players are capable of these things, but I'd honestly need that read as opposed to the opposite as a default.

There end up being lots of situations in position on the river where its worth re-opening the betting on the river to squeeze a little more value in. Any time stacks are deep, ranges are still wideish, and pots are small we can find spots to drop in a few light valueraises. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Nick C]

I'm not as confident as you are that Villain won't bet $1 with the Ah, but you wouldn't think he'd even have that unless his hand is AhQx or AhXh.

Overall, though, your play in the hand and your reasoning seems good to me.

On the turn, I'm not sure what's best. A problem you do have, though, is that that turn card is only scary because it's a heart, and while there's the chance that heart might convince Villain to fold black 8's when he would have debated with himself and finally called versus a second barrel on the 4c, there is the problem that he's not going to fold anything he called with on the flop if his hand contains a heart. It's possible that card actually loses more folding equity for you than it gains.

[Guruman]

that turn card is only scary because it's a heart, and while there's the chance that heart might convince Villain to fold black 8's when he would have debated with himself and finally called versus a second barrel on the 4c, there is the problem that he's not going to fold anything he called with on the flop if his hand contains a heart. It's possible that card actually loses more folding equity for you than it gains.

well, that was kind of my reasoning for checking through the turn there. I felt like a big big chunk of his range wasnt going to go anywhere for any reasonable sized bet given the pf coldcallcall and the flop check/call on the heartish board, so I just judged my fold equity to be low and decided against the bluff.

Ed and David both explicitly point at the value of one's draw as a determining factor on whether or not to semibluff, - advising bluffs with lower valued draws and checks with higher valued ones - and I got that backwards here.

The main reason for this is if we have a high value draw (high value meaning that we can potentially win lots of $$ consistently either by hitting an out that we know is clean or by getting paid off in a more tenuous spot) we're better off not exposing ourselves to a checkraise that will deny us access to the potential money card. If we have a low value draw (one with tainted outs or a lower probability of getting paid off when it hits) then we're better off bluffing because we don't care as much about connecting as we do about taking the pot down UI.

In this case my draw was clearly a low value draw because it was to a one-card 4th nut flush (tainted outs, super obv when the draw hits) so I should have made the attempt to push off a pair on the turn instead of taking the free card looking to hit there.

I got lucky that villain took such a bad river line and justified my mistake, but that doenst mean it probably wasnt a mistake. Villain held Ax7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - I wonder how big of a bet it would have taken to fold him out?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I got lucky that villain took such a bad river line and justified my mistake, but that doenst mean it probably wasnt a mistake. Villain held Ax7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - I wonder how big of a bet it would have taken to fold him out?

[/ QUOTE ]

If somehow you had known that Villain held Ax7h, I think the correct play would be to check the turn and basically give up. His preflop call suggests he's not someone who likes to fold.

But for the sake of hypothetically analyzing two spewy lines that might work, I guess it's possible he wouldn't play for the rest of his stack if you pushed. And then another line that maybe would work would be to second barrel the turn with the plan of pushing on any non-7, non-A river.

[orange]

I actually like all streets.

[Guruman]

is that because you believe I don't have enough FE on the turn?