NLTRN $11 - 99 preflop decision

[bbbushu]

villain plays pretty passive - s/he has only put in substantial action on two occassions both OOP (once 3-betting with A9, c-bet the flop, check-down after turning a 9; the other check/calling a c-bet and donking out big when the flop's high card paired on the turn). in position villain still will usually check-behind without a hand. that said, i expect them to play fairly predictably after the flop.

villain doesnt have a standard preflop raise - thus far it's been either 2x, 3x or 4x - i havent shown down a 4x yet so i can't say for sure this means villain's hand is strong or not.

i have 3-bet twice before - villain folded one preflop and the other to a 3/4 c-bet on a T86 board.

loci of consideration:

- IMO, 99 doesn't play great post-flop but neither does villain and i'll generally feel safe folding to action on scary boards
- if stacks were deep, i'd three-bet to about 270 here - this leaves villain with 550 which means if i c-bet (which may not be necessary since i don't expect villain to bluff a flop like KJ2) i could potentially get attached to a lot of bad boards.


Seat 1: babybupkr (2180 in chips)
Seat 2: drmlazer11 (820 in chips)
drmlazer11: posts small blind 10
babybupkr: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to babybupkr [9c 9s]
drmlazer11: raises 60 to 80

thanks,
bbbushu

[ChicagoRy]

I probably shove here, doubt villain is raising AA/KK to 80, less likely other PPs that beat you, you're close to his calling range, but possibly ahead by a lot if he calls with enough lower PPs.

[dboy23]

yes good post, this is always a tough spot for me. The problem with raising to 280 and potting allin on the flop is that you are usually only called when you are beat.

or you can push preflop. I'd probable only do this if I think he will call will all the lower PPs and maybe some A5 crap. So basically only if he is very donkish.

Or.....you can just call and c/r safe flops. Or maybe c/c 1 or 2 overcard flops and try to get to showdown. That would be if he plays straightforward postflop.

But yeah, it is a tough spot. I'd like to get some other opinions on what is best.

[dippy111]

I think just calling is a little weak, but it's not a bad option. I would 3bet/shove flop unless it was really scary (ie an ace). Also, depending on the opponent i might 3bet to 320 or so, but only if i think i'll get called by worse hands. Is that too aggro?

[ChicagoRy]

I think you definitely get called by worse hands.

3-betting this just makes your postflop play super tough against a player that it should never put you in tough spots. Why raise to 300 and do that to yourself?

I think the options here are clearly shoving or calling. I don't like calling as much because you're not going to get enough value from the guy you described compared to his likely calling/folding range on a shove.

[bbbushu]

just a comment to dboy - i considered calling preflop but i think i'd donk safe flops to avoid the passive line's check-behind/free card.

happy to see that others are curious about the same spot

[Llama88]

i like shove or flat call, reraise commits you too much and you may be put in a very awkward spot on the flop.

[dippy111]

What if you're plan was to shove the flop regardless? Villain will call the 3bet with a much wider range than a push, i think (although he shouldn't) and i think it's safe to say will call the all-in with any piece of the flop, draw and maybe even overcards. It just seems like both pushing and calling are inviting your opponent to play correctly.

Obviously, this only works if villains 3bet calling range is
significantly larger than his push calling range.

[Knightsridge]

Flat call. If he is that bad a player you can get away from it. Play small pots, if he doubles up he has taken the lead. No point in trying to end it right away, chip away at him.

[dippy111]

I think that any chance you have to get your opponent to make a mistake, you should take. If you 3bet, your opponent can either fold call or push. If he folds then whatever, you weren't going to make any money on the hand anyway. If he pushes then he might have you beat or you'll be racing, but it's no different from just pushing originally. However, if he calls then he's made a mistake. When you push the flop if he folds, you've taken a huge chunk of his stack. And I think that there's a very good chance of getting a call from a worse hand on the flop. People will call with all kinds of
kx,qx,jx hands trying to get lucky. And when they hit their x on the flop they figure they have to call.

Maybe I'm overly optimistic, and there are certainly better situations to do this, but I think it's a profitable option against alot of opponents