I am good at poker (low content)

[Phil153]

[ QUOTE ]
It has less to do with the fact that low cards are out and more to do with the fact that the 2 AA2 are cutting each other up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Cooker, you disappoint. Let's kill my flush draw, drop an A, put two high cards out there and lose one each of the jacks and 6s (killing a lot of 2 pair, trips and straight combos). Guess what? Even under these horrible conditions I still have positive equity!!!!!

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1891640
cards..........scoop.....EV
Ts 9s Jc 6h 68455 0.253
As 3s Jd 2d 52097 0.326
4s 6d 5d 3h 21161 0.145
Ac Qc 3c Ah 58684 0.277

Now let's take a more likely scenario (we can't see monsters under the bed) and put a KK out there (killing a heap of straight and 2 pair possibilities).

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1891689
cards..........scoop.....EV
Ts 9s Jc 6h 77067 0.316
As 4d 2d 3h 16422 0.260
Ks Ad Kd 4h 61372 0.229
Ac 7c 3c Ah 32415 0.195

As you can see there are many likely combos that I OWN. Sure I'll be a small dog in some (such as if many high cards are out), but given what I knew of the players and the strong likelihood of all four aces and a lot of low cards in their hands, it was +EV.

[Mendacious]

Whoooops!

Now you are a moron with this equally probable set of holdings.

Two Dimes

Phil you should just play NL Omaha at Stars, where you can make plays like this all day long.

Having 3 people willing to call bets in PL08 $50 level does not neccesarily mean that 2 of them have AA and all 3 of them have 4 low cards. Now if you had 4 coordinated high cards at least Single suite, I could see it. But otherwise, this is not the way to beat people that you are better than over the long term. It is the way to make a big score if you get lucky. I'm perfectly willing to shove against people, and gamble, but passing this off as great situational analysis is horse$hit. And I fully acknowledge that your situational analysis here was probably spot on, but that doesn't really justify the play with your hand. The problem with your analysis is that it requires you to be right about all 3 players hands (and for you to have the high spades) in order for you to really have the equity to make that play. Unless you really know your players, you can't put 3 people on hands that accurately pre-flop to make it worth your while.

[Kuso]

i'm going to disagree with you, mendacious.

first, having 20.6% equity in a four-way pot is not really being a moron if you think that there is a decent chance that you have over 30% equity most of the time.

second, regarding putting people on hands, some people ONLY call pf raises with low hands or AAxx. i'm not saying that phil actually had this good of a read, but some people are, in fact, that predictable with their responses to pf raises -- esp. at the lower limits.

[Mendacious]

Some people, yes, all 3 people, probably not.

[Kuso]

i don't think it's that hard to get three predictable people at the 50s -- but maybe that's just me.

anyway, it would certainly be a rare occurence.

[Phil153]

[ QUOTE ]
Whoooops!

Now you are a moron with this equally probable set of holdings.

Two Dimes

[/ QUOTE ]
Hah? In your example I have 20.6% equity in a FOUR WAY POT given a very bad scenario (my flush dead, two live overpairs that can hit sets, a heap of straight outs dead, a heap of two pairs outs dead due to the KKQ making a straight.)

Given that my best scenario is over 40% equity in a FOUR WAY POT, my average scenario is positive and my likely bad scenarios have a few percent in negative expectation, you just helped me prove that this push is +EV.

[jai]

I thinks Effen is right on in his analysis. Phil, you were fortunate to have the following parlay take place: your flush draw was live, your opponents ate up each others outs, there were two AA out, and no one else went in with high card hands.

If you had a read that everyone else was playing exactly the cards they did, then you are of course in a big EV+ situation.

Consider this situation: your raise gets one hand (let's say someone with Ac 8c 3c 2h) to fold, but the other two hands go in with you. If those two hands are AA2x and high cards (let's say your flush is still live), it looks really bad for you:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1894207
pokenum -o8 6h jc ts 9s - as 3d ad 2d - th jh qs kc / ac 8c 3c 2h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 376992 enumerated boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 9s Jc 6h 32367 97451 258065 21476 0 0 0 0.194
As Ad 3d 2d 156307 156307 220685 0 222195 0 0 0.571
Qs Kc Jh Th 59657 101758 253758 21476 0 0 0 0.236

How likely is this scenario, or any of the myriad other scenarios which people have proposed, versus the likelihood of the scenario that actually took place? I'm not sure, but I suspect you got very lucky.

[phosix]

Hey f u ck the stats
now you know you are against some pockets that wont go to trips.
how about if all the js and 9s were gone to folded hands???? you know that one pair is dead. wow preflop you had no idead what they had besides that. sure if you knew to a 100% what 4 cards all your oponnets were holding but you didnt. so i still say thats one of the lamest suck on a donkeys cox plays ive ever seen

[J. Henry Christ]

nh, sir