Mixed Strategy Blind Defence (QT with bluff-perfect flop)

[Bulletproof Monk]

Hand came up today that made me feel like starting this thread.

5/10 on Crypto, 9 handed.

Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

All fold to decent TAG button who raises. He is observant and recognises us as a relatively unpredictable TAG. He is probably raising Ax, Kxs, Q8o+ Q9s+, JTo+, J-T9s, PPs or close to it.

SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop is: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Button c-bets (he makes this play with 100% of his range), Hero folds.


Ok, so of the following lines in this spot, what % should each line be used:

1. 3bet pre, lead flop.
2. call pre, c/f flop.
3. call pre, lead flop.
4. call pre, c/r flop.

(i dont see any other lines being appropriate ever)

[milesdyson]

he is tight. he should be raising Q5s, 87s, as well. if he plays straightforwardly (ie. he "counts outs" and plays accordingly), you have a profitable c/r with any two on this board. if he suspects you're going to Pull Shenanigans on this board, then you might not.

[sharpie]

With the read he's observant and recognizes us as relatively unpredictable, he should know this is a board we might take a shot at, plus he has a tighter range than a "normal" TAG. I don't think it's worth playing back here.

FWIW here is from the other perspective.

[Sushiglutton]

I guess you have played mny hands agaisnt him and intend to do so also in the future? I think you can have a good mixed strategy without ever doing 1 or 3. If you play this guy regularly you could go through his blind stealing hands with PT. There probably is a theoetical break-even spot where we become un-exploitable. But we don't want to go there, since we want to exploit HIM. Recent hands and game flow means a lot, I think.

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have played mny hands agaisnt him and intend to do so also in the future? I think you can have a good mixed strategy without ever doing 1 or 3. If you play this guy regularly you could go through his blind stealing hands with PT. There probably is a theoetical break-even spot where we become un-exploitable. But we don't want to go there, since we want to exploit HIM. Recent hands and game flow means a lot, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you are smart enough to get that this is just a way for me to say I don't have a clue [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img].

[LukeSLTS]

Option #1 - 5% or less, only if I feel the villain is getting too familiar with me
Option #2 - 55%
Option #3 - Almost never
Option #4 - 40%

The 40% of my range is going to when I have some kind of draw or a pair. On this flop I will almost always c/f.

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
Option #1 - 5% or less, only if I feel the villain is getting too familiar with me
Option #2 - 55%
Option #3 - Almost never
Option #4 - 40%

The 40% of my range is going to when I have some kind of draw or a pair. On this flop I will almost always c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to make some justfication so we know they are not just random numbers.

[LukeSLTS]

I thought I did. Option #4 is when I hit a pair, two-way straight draw, or a gutshot with an overcard. I don't know the exact figure but I am estimating this happens 40% of the time. The rest of the time against opponents who I don't have a lot of history against I am check/folding.

[Bulletproof Monk]

thanks for the responses guys, especially miles for clarifying something for me. ill make a longer post and put it here dealing with this situation to get in to a bit more detail sometime soon

[Bulletproof Monk]

i would like to simplify it tho. ignore option 1 and assume we always just call preflop.

what mixed strategy do we use for:

1. call pre, c/f flop.
2. call pre, lead flop.
3. call pre, c/r flop.

on this flop against an observant opponent