Need help w/ prop bet odds (nc)...

[loosbastard]

Alright guys, I need to get this thing rolling. A buddy of mine (bunky9590 on here) and I disagree as to what kind of win-rate is attainable at 100NL. I commented that anything between 5-8 was very good and anything much higher was God-like and probably not sustainable for all but the very best players. He, on the other hand, seems to think 10-15 is easily possible. He's clearly wrong here (sorry buddy), but hey if he thinks he can do it...I might as well gamble on it right? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

So here's what I was thinking: 10+ PTBB/100 over a 100k hand sample w/ no deadline for completing the hands so he isn't forced to 10 table or anything.

He wants 4:1. This sound fair? And by fair I mean me clearly having an edge obv.

[smark102]

I'd probably draw the line at 10.5:1 the odds of hitting an inside straight draw on the river. If he plays perfect.

[luvetoholdem]

Can I get in on this?

[xd40]

if he beats 100nl for +10ptbb the fact he will play 100k hands and not move up makes it a beat, imo.

[so sick bro]

sounds like a lock, no question you have the best of this one. what stakes does this guy usually play that he's so confident/willing to play 100K hands of 100?

[Keyser.]

I want in as long as there's some kind of time limit. Just make it like 4 months.

fwiw if he is decent and 1-tables he could do it, but I dunno why anyone would want to.

[carnivalhobo]

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fwiw if he is decent and 6-tables he could do it, but I dunno why anyone would want to.

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[loosbastard]

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sounds like a lock, no question you have the best of this one. what stakes does this guy usually play that he's so confident/willing to play 100K hands of 100?

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He's definitely a very good thinking player, but he hasn't played online much in the past few months I think. He was playing (and I assume beating) 5-10 for a while, and I believe he's played up to like 10-20 or so live. He's kind of an old-school kinda player...which makes this much more interesting IMO considering how much the online games have changed in the past year or two.

[loosbastard]

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if he beats 100nl for +10ptbb the fact he will play 100k hands and not move up makes it a beat, imo.

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And yeah...I agree. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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fwiw if he is decent and 1-tables he could do it, but I dunno why anyone would want to.

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Ego of course. And yeah, I probably should set a time frame now that I think about it. Letting him 1 table away for 6+ months might make this doable (albeit a beat in itself as already mentioned earlier).

[DaycareInferno]

its pretty easy to do if you dump a bunch of hh out of your database when convenient.