15-30 AA hand, where am I?

[2handed]

Full ring on stars. No reads.

UTG limps, folded to small blind who completes, I raise with AAK3ss, UTG calls, SB folds.

Flop KQ6 two diamonds (i have none): I bet, UTG calls.

Turn offsuit Ace: I bet, UTG raises, I call.

River Jack of diamonds: I check, he bets, I call.

[Buzz]

2handed - UTG makes it tough on you when he raises your turn bet.

Does he have a Broadway or not? If he doesn't have a Broadway, does he have a flush draw or not?

If he already has the Broadway, <ul type="square">9/44 you win +6 or +7 big bets, and
36/44 you lose -1 big bet.[/list]So obviously you're forced to call the raise (getting at least 6 to 1 with odds against you of only 4 to 1).

If he doesn't have the Broadway and also doesn't have a diamond draw, your trip aces could be the winner.

We suspect he has the Broadway from the betting - but then when we get to the river, we don't know this opponent, so we're not sure. And at this point, it's only one more big bet to see what he has.

But if we go back to calling the raise on the turn, if we really were planning to call on the river even when we missed, we'd only be getting 3 or 3.5 to 1, and the odds against making our hand are still 4 to 1.

So looking ahead, if we're planning on calling on the river even if the board doesn't pair, then we have unfavorable odds to call the turn raise.

It's a fairly common occurrence.

And the trouble is, you're out of position. If you check the river, Villain is almost certain to bet.

Against unknown opponents, it's impossible for you to know if Villain is bluffing, over-betting his hand, or if he has the Broadway (as more or less advertised).

Meanwhile, if you don't know your opponents, they don't know you either.

An added snag is someone limping UTG should have an ace. And if so, it is the ace of diamonds. With that card in your hand, you might at least consider a bluff raise on the river. Without it, you have to presume Villain has it, therefore making a bluff-raise more or less unbelievable.

It goes against the grain to fold to the river bet, but I would think that's your best play if it were not for one thing.

You don't get any information about the way Villain plays if you fold to the river bet. And if you're going to play this Villain again, you need to start gathering information and taking notes.

And therefore, although it isn't the best play from the standpoint of minimizing your loss on the hand, I think you have to call on the river. (Another downside of calling is you'll give up information about the way you play to all your opponents).

But I still think you have to call on the river. Hopefully you can use the information (gained from showing down both hands) more than your opponents can.

I don't see any way to improve your play here. No suggestions.

Buzz

[2handed]

Buzz,
Good post. Also, I did not have the ace of diamonds.

The thing that is tough here is that the only hands I beat here is an overplayed naked AK/AQ or the rare KK/QQ, and these seem unlikely, so I came really close to folding. What kept me in the hand was that I did not believe that he had J10 enough of the time here to justify calling the turn and folding, simply because there are not a lot of hands that have J10 which ppl limp from UTG.

The jack of diamonds is still the worst card in the deck for me, and I think having the discipline to fold here might be more ev+ than the information gained by calling. Again that does not mean that a fold is right, I just wish I had the discipline to make better river folds.

[howzit]

in a full ring vaccuum, i fold.

short-handed aggressive games, 3 bet the turn.