10-20 Kill hand from Wynn

[cgkid]

Tex,

What does raising pre flop do that makes the hand easier to play? Or is it purely for value? I'm not disagreeing with you. I just want to hear why it's the best play.

Thanks,
cgkid

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you considering the probability/possibility of getting jammed on the flop, and that the earlier caller may be asked to call an additional two bets when it gets to him, with the possibility of a raise thereafter?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did consider the possibility of it getting 3-bet when it got back to the original bettor. It would be unlikely for someone inbetween to 3-bet, i.e., assume the original bettor has some sort of decent hand, the raiser has to have a good hand, and OP has to have a fit for the flop as well, so it's highly unlikely someone inbetween will cold 3-bet it. And from my experience there's very few hands that 3-bet this flop. Specifically the only person who is likely to three bet is the original bettor, and it's still unlikely for him to three bet with enough frequency to change my decision to call.

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Tex,

What does raising pre flop do that makes the hand easier to play? Or is it purely for value? I'm not disagreeing with you. I just want to hear why it's the best play.

Thanks,
cgkid

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising preflop would have done one thing right off the bat that would have made this a much easier flop peel- it would have increased the size of the pot. With four limpers and OP making a fifth player, OP would raise and likely at least the BB and for sure all 4 limpers are calling. So that puts 12 small bets in the pot preflop, and if the action was the exact same on the flop then OP would be getting 8-1 to call on the flop, thus making the call that much more profitable and easier to make than in the OP where he's getting 6-1 iirc.

And to answer your question regarding why to raise this hand preflop, the generic answer is that most LO8 players enter into a pot with small cards, which leaves the deck rich in high cards.

Here's a random example of a good scenario for this type of raise, and this assumes that the blinds have random hands that are likely enough for them to call with:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2844448
pokenum -o8 ad ks js ts - - ah 2c 5d 8c - - 2s 3h 4d 6c - - 8s 8d 9c td - - ac 4c qs 7d - - 5s 5h 2h 9d - - kd qd 7c 8h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 42504 enumerated boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks Js Ts Ad 8573 12514 29748 242 0 0 0 0.251
8c 2c 5d Ah 686 745 40733 1026 10723 7735 1277 0.148
2s 6c 4d 3h 3995 7312 35192 0 4981 11160 297 0.183
8s 9c Td 8d 1297 3111 39259 134 0 0 0 0.053
Qs Ac 4c 7d 3111 5097 36288 1119 2623 11474 384 0.137
5s 9d 5h 2h 4126 7569 33909 1026 0 10729 1085 0.150
7c Kd Qd 8h 1901 3761 37488 1255 0 12609 0 0.078

And if you assign the first three limpers the three best hands out of that bunch and assume the blinds are going to fold:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2844457
pokenum -o8 ad ks js ts - - ah 2c 5d 8c - - 2s 3h 4d 6c - - - ac 4c qs 7d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 376992 enumerated boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks Js Ts Ad 115865 169920 205374 1698 0 0 0 0.381
8c 2c 5d Ah 41521 57792 319080 120 109665 72452 2439 0.245
2s 6c 4d 3h 22008 66752 307726 2514 37278 141967 1467 0.159
Qs Ac 4c 7d 45728 78316 294464 4212 40620 121044 2880 0.214


Hope that helps. And BAH HUM BUG if anyone thinks that these hands aren't uber-common in lower limit LO8 games, because they are. Even if you tweek the hands in a non-favorable way for OP, it is still correct to raise his hand in a multiway pot, although a lot of players are very hesitant to do so because high-only hands often are high-variance hands and are more difficult to play post flop than low hands or high and low hands. But as demonstrated by the simulations above, it is still correct to raise.

And here's a preflop sim that might relate to the action in the hand that OP posted, I'll assign players preflop hands that make sense with that flop action and that board:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2844487
pokenum -o8 ad ks js ts - - ah th 2s 5d - - qc qd 3h 4d - - 5c 6c 7h 8s - - 9c 9d td 7d - - ac 2c 5s 5h - - 3d 3s 4c 6s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 42504 enumerated boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks Js Ts Ad 6600 10305 30648 1551 0 0 0 0.216
2s 5d Ah Th 2020 4860 36036 1608 0 5136 13959 0.180
Qc Qd 4d 3h 5039 7621 34778 105 0 3972 5685 0.183
8s 6c 5c 7h 1334 5476 36808 220 0 19502 0 0.082
9c Td 9d 7d 4395 8293 33729 482 0 0 0 0.153
5s Ac 2c 5h 891 2133 40030 341 0 5136 13959 0.120
6s 3s 4c 3d 344 1621 40778 105 801 8756 5685 0.065

There's a preflop scenario that could fit the action in OP's hand. You've got one guy with a royal flush draw and another with top set in there, and you've got a couple A2 hands and a couple random blind hands.

So even in that spot OP has 21% equity in a 7-way pot. The thing you need to extrapolate from those numbers is that 21% is not a lot of equity, but it is when the pot is played 7-ways, so while it may seem that you're often folding on the flop or turn when you raise preflop, it's because the pot is being contested by so many other hands, so you're not going to scoop very often but when you do scoop the pot will be very large, i.e., that's why this is a high variance situation, but still a very profitable one.

[PokerJans]

HIJACK!!

Is this game still running everyday? How long is the wait usually? I am headed over next week and wondering what the non holdem picture looks like.

Any other suggestions for 4-8 to 15-30 mixed game type things running?

[walsh313]

Quick response to hijack, it runs everyday, almost all day. Thank you for your insight Tex. I will now relate a few more things that influenced my play. The best player at the table (and a friend of mine) is the one who raised. At this point I put him on at worst top two, also a set, and the nut flush draw with some type of backup ( pair, gutshot straight, backup low with counterfeit protection). Also as anyone who has played this game knows, that if the board brings broadway but also low it is practically a 100% certainty that someone will have stuck in for low and I will only win half the pot. Also there is the possibility that the original bettor has a hand similar to mine. After reading some of the responses a call may be as good as, if not a better option in this situation, however I went with my reads. The results: the board came perfect perfect, off suit 9 and off suit A. I would have had the nuts. The original raiser had top set and took down the pot.

[SweetLuckyMe]

I'm raising that hand pf as the kill - in fact I'm raising just about any reasonable hand. I wouldn't mind being tied on to this one until the end - especially as the kill, I'm not folding that flop. When a kill is involved you can't play as though the pot is small.

[chillrob]

I think the hand was played fine, but I just don't see why you would want to show your hand to someone else, then start a whole table discussion about how tight you are. Do you really want a tight image at an Omaha 8 table?