JJ on bubble, help with ICM tournament equity?

[Loxodonta]

I know these stakes aren't high, but it's a fairly technical question.

7 handed, top 6 get paid:

1st $342
2nd $225
3rd $144
4th $90
5th $54
6th $45

Seat 1: ITS-ALL-ME-JR (3,120)
Seat 2: kruttroyk (12,306)
Seat 4: strangor (6,610)
Seat 5: Doyle47 (12,917)
Seat 6: Loxodonta (11,300)
Seat 7: Nilli Vanilli (11,880)
Seat 8: shawndelc (9,367)
Loxodonta posts the small blind of 200
Nilli Vanilli posts the big blind of 400

It folds around to Doyle47 on the button who puts in a standard raise to 1,200. I have JJ in the small blind and I make a weak/passive play of flat calling, trying not to tangle with the other big stacks without a substantial edge. My idea is to check-raise a safe flop to win a medium pot. Meanwhile, Nilli Vanilli, who is known to be LAG, moves all in and Doyle47 folds. I know the algorithm for calculating my ICM tournament equity, but with 7 players remaining that is 7 factorial or 5,040 possible outcomes. I downloaded SNG Wizard and when it replayed this hand it suggested pushing my JJ (as opposed to folding I guess), which probably would have picked up the chips in the middle and saved me this tricky decision, but I could not figure out how to get it to tell me my tournament equities of folding vs. winning this giant pot. Against {A8+, 88-QQ} (I expect a standard reraise with KK+) JJ has 65% pre-flop chip equity so if not on the bubble I would insta-call with fist-pump. Any advice on tools/methodology? BTW, hand results in white below:

<font color="white">Loxodonta calls 10,100, and is all in
Nilli Vanilli shows [As 8h]
Loxodonta shows [Jh Js]
Uncalled bet of 580 returned to Nilli Vanilli
*** FLOP *** [7d Kc Ac]
*** TURN *** [7d Kc Ac] [7c]
*** RIVER *** [7d Kc Ac 7c] [8d]
Loxodonta: nice catch
Nilli Vanilli shows two pair, Aces and Eights
Loxodonta shows two pair, Jacks and Sevens
Nilli Vanilli wins the pot (23,800) with two pair, Aces and Eights
</font>

[ASPoker8]

3bet preflop, as played snapcall

post this in BBV

[Kala1928]

very nicely trapped, wp

[Loxodonta]

I appreciate the kind words, but I am looking for some serious analysis. I recall in HoH vol. II Harrington talks about folding QQ to an all in push on the bubble, but that was for a one table SNG with 50%-30%-20% payouts, so a very large delta between 3rd and 4th. I think there is a distinct possibility, even if I'm a guaranteed 2-1 favorite, I may be losing tournament equity by calling here.

[Vetgirig]

I sometime plays them like you did - trapping in SB to get payed off.

But on the bubble I don't want to get all-in with them and have a 30% chance of going out. Just re-raise preflop and take home the hand and move on. Just as you dont want to tangle with the big stack - they dont want to tange with you. So a re-raise will force them to consider and give them basically two choices
1 lay it down or
2 play for their whole stack

By just calling you give the big stack after you excellent odds to call or as in this case do a squeeze play to take down the hand pre-flop.

By just calling you are tangling with the other big stack - re-raise to end the hand or fold it. Calling is tangling and not what you said you want to do.


So stop calling big stacks pre-flop- unless you want to tangle with them ?

Just re-raise or fold.

[ASPoker8]

[ QUOTE ]
I appreciate the kind words, but I am looking for some serious analysis. I recall in HoH vol. II Harrington talks about folding QQ to an all in push on the bubble, but that was for a one table SNG with 50%-30%-20% payouts, so a very large delta between 3rd and 4th. I think there is a distinct possibility, even if I'm a guaranteed 2-1 favorite, I may be losing tournament equity by calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. no. no.

This is a trivial 3bet. As played, its a trivial snapcall. Seriously this is not the kind of thing you should be posting in HSMTT.

[Confused1]

I have a spreadsheet that calculates up to 10-way ICM equity, but I can't find the link I downloaded it from.

It's designed (by 'SmallPotJeff'?) for deal making, but you can do this math with it, too. Use this to calculate equity now and with your 'win' stack, sngpt will give you the 'win %', and then do the math yourself.

If you want it, PM me your email address or tell me how to upload it somewhere.

[Loxodonta]

Thanks! I'm glad someone took my post seriously. Don't worry, next time I'll 3 bet.