AA, Check Raised All in

[mjm]

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This isn't true at all IMO. The only draw out there is JT and nl2 plays VERY nitty. Sure, people overvalue hands like top pair, but they will know something is up here. You are, at the least, up against two pair.

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Getting 5:1 plus the rest of UTG's stack, hero doesn't have to win here often for a push to be +EV.

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But you are something like 10% to win the hand, if either of the other two players have at least 2 brain cells.

[Quester]

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But you are something like 10% to win the hand, if either of the other two players have at least 2 brain cells.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

106,920 games 0.160 secs 668,250 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.757% 18.76% 00.00% 20055 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 81.243% 81.24% 00.00% 86865 0.00 { KK-QQ, 22, KQs, KQo }


edit: Add 5% for a silly bluff with 2nd pair, like AQo. Add another 5% because having both in the hand means it is less likely to be against KQ. +EV.

[Deraj]

Yeah, after seeing this PokerStove I have to agree that this is should be shoved.

Quester only included worst case scenario hands and it still comes out close. Once we add things like AQ, AK, AJ, and other pocket pairs it would be very obvious.

[orlov]

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This isn't true at all IMO. The only draw out there is JT and nl2 plays VERY nitty. Sure, people overvalue hands like top pair, but they will know something is up here. You are, at the least, up against two pair.

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where have you played nl2 lol? 3rd pair is good enough for most ppl to call down with.

unless you play on tilt, there nl2 is probably tougher than nl100 on most other sites.

[mjm]

Maybe, but i'm still not convinced. The Stove results need to be weighted to the fact that the sets are the far more likely hands. Don't you see a set like every time here? Quester's analysis as it stands would seem to me far more best case scenario rather than worst case.

[Deraj]

For those that are interested:

...Hero Folds

UTG takes down the pot on river w/ K8o
BB Mucks Q5o for the loss

I think if I would have been at the table for ~1 more orbit I would've made the shove. My lack of any reads/info on the villains had me assuming they were semi-thinking players. I should've known better playing at these limits.

UTG was just giving his chips away and over the course of another 100h ands or so at the table I was able to win back my losses plus a couple more bucks.

[kurto]

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For those that are interested:

...Hero Folds

UTG takes down the pot on river w/ K8o
BB Mucks Q5o for the loss

I think if I would have been at the table for ~1 more orbit I would've made the shove. My lack of any reads/info on the villains had me assuming they were semi-thinking players. I should've known better playing at these limits.

UTG was just giving his chips away and over the course of another 100h ands or so at the table I was able to win back my losses plus a couple more bucks.

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I don't know how anyone makes a read at the .01/.02 tables. As this hand shows, its probably best to assume your opponents are close to brain damaged until they prove otherwise.

[Quester]

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Maybe, but i'm still not convinced. The Stove results need to be weighted to the fact that the sets are the far more likely hands. Don't you see a set like every time here? Quester's analysis as it stands would seem to me far more best case scenario rather than worst case.

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Since we aren't heads-up, sets should be less likely, not more likely (22 being the exception). KK and QQ can be discounted based on preflop play (neither UTG nor BB raised), they can be discounted because the board contains a K and a Q, and they can be further discounted because both players are producing action on the flop. UTG doesn't have a set here based on the flop action; he has Kx, Qx, or KQ. I'd fully discount sets from UTG's range by his flop play. Since he has Kx, Qx, or KQ, it makes it very unlikely that BB has KK or QQ, leaving 22 as the only set we should be afraid of. And even if we knew with 100% certainty that BB has 22, it's still probably +EV to call because the pot is large.

[orlov]

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For those that are interested:

...Hero Folds

UTG takes down the pot on river w/ K8o
BB Mucks Q5o for the loss

I think if I would have been at the table for ~1 more orbit I would've made the shove. My lack of any reads/info on the villains had me assuming they were semi-thinking players. I should've known better playing at these limits.

UTG was just giving his chips away and over the course of another 100h ands or so at the table I was able to win back my losses plus a couple more bucks.

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I don't know how anyone makes a read at the .01/.02 tables. As this hand shows, its probably best to assume your opponents are close to brain damaged until they prove otherwise.

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pretty good advise, at nl2 assume opponents to be fishes until you see em do something smart.

[Xanthro]

Never ever fold this at .02NL. 99% of the players here aren't thinking.

Maybe you'll see 22, or the really stupidly played KK or QQ 10% of the time, the rest of the time you'll see K4 or something equally retarded.

I've seen this hundreds of times at that level, and it's almost always a horrible horrible hand.