#1
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NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
6-handed. Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and $200. BTN is 37/11/2.2 over 54 hands and covers, probably a donk.
Hero raises to $7, BTN calls. Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($17). Hero bets $14, BTN calls. Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($45). Hero bets $45, BTN calls. River 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($135). Hero shoves for $134...? This is because I don't feel like folding on the river as I think he will bet AT/A5/AJ/A7/55/AK/AQ often enough and to avoid a negative freeroll where I'm mostly playing a big pot when beat but he checks behind when he has a weaker ace. Looks good or did I get it wrong? |
#2
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
He probably doesn't have a flush. I can't follow the reasoning you stated for shoving.
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#3
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding.
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#4
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
He probably doesn't have a flush. I can't follow the reasoning you stated for shoving. [/ QUOTE ] Thought it was just me. I like the shove though, wide range of hands that can call but alot of them wont raise a regular bet or even bet after a check, if he has the flush oh well, not worth missing the value on river. |
#5
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I thought so. It sounded like you were saying he would bet many hands that you beat. I like the shove. |
#6
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
How much does the villains VPIP affect the +EV of the river shove?
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#7
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
I dont shove this river because I feel that the frequency of him calling a bet of $90 is so much bigger than his frequency for calling a push, that betting less than a push is optimal. Am I missing value?
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#8
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
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How much does the villains VPIP affect the +EV of the river shove? [/ QUOTE ] VPIP matters most on the flop and least on the river, so probably not much. Consider that a villain with like 80 VPIP has a range wider than just flushes+AA, and villain with a lower VPIP has a range weighted towards non-flush hands. I think the EV of the river shove is more dependent on AF than VPIP. |
#9
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning is that if I don't shove river he checks behind many hands I beat that were calling a shove but bets many hands that beat me and I'm not folding. [/ QUOTE ] What is he possibly calling with that you beat? AJ? Isn't this a perfect spot to induce a bluff (turning his Ax into a bluff)? Also, how awful is a fold? So many draws have gotten there. |
#10
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Re: NL200: TT set on river when flush comes in
[ QUOTE ]
What is he possibly calling with that you beat? [/ QUOTE ]My read is that the entirety of AT/A5/AJ/A7/55 calls in nearly 100% of cases and AK/AQ calls a lot of the time and even Ax one pair calls some of the time. |
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