#1
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NL50 I c/r all-in with a gutshot
Villain is 12/10 over ~40 hands. Over this small sample his flop AF is 0.3 and his turn AF is oo.
We haven't been involved together a lot, only hand that happened between us was him 3betting my LP raise then folding to my shove. He sees me as a 20/18/4 TAG, I haven't done anything crazy like this recently. After his turn bet I thought there was a good chance his range contained a lot of marginal hands / draws he would not be willing to commit his stack with, and I had (a few) outs if he called me. Thoughts ? Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter CO: $26.50 BTN: $52.45 SB: $74.20 BB: $50.45 UTG: $68.55 Hero (MP): $62.90 Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP) UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.50, 3 folds Flop: ($6.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, BTN calls $5 Turn: ($16.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $11.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $55.40 and is All-In</font> |
#2
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Re: NL50 I c/r all-in with a gutshot
I like this move, but the only problem is that with stats of 12/10, most of his calling range PF is pocket pairs and SC's, both of which(if they didn't already beat an overpair on the flop[what you are repping]) got there on the turn, including two pairs, straights etc. The other problem with this line is that I see people calling all the time here with a pair + a straight draw because they think that even if they aren't good they have a draw.
Ultimately, this has to work way too often for this to be profitable. Sidenote: against something with nitty-ish stats, I tend to put them mostly on PP who call in position, so I tend to c/f a lot of flops like this because they either float or call you down with marginal holdings. |
#3
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Re: NL50 I c/r all-in with a gutshot
Meh I don't like it. I think you're only folding out 44/33 and MAYBE 55 but he just hit an open-ender. Then again, has he seen you take this line w/AA-JJ before?
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