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  #51  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:38 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?

That's funny.
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  #52  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:47 PM
1MoreFish4U 1MoreFish4U is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
And then, earlier, had you even read the thread, I stated that a better stat would be that Washington gives up 6.39 yards per attempt, which is 5th best in the NFL. So yeah, yards per game is a relatively worthless stat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know why I am bothering with this - I am not even interested in the wash Pass Def part of the discussion, but I feel it needs to be said. This season teams have thrown against Washington AN AVERAGE OF 34 TIMES PER GAME OVER 10 GAMES!

If the Wash Pass Defense was 5th best in the NFL, teams would be awfully STOOOPID to do that, wouldnt they? Dont they pay these coaches a lot of money to be smarter than that?

Anyway, GB-DET - neutral field - 5 games. I would gladly wager that GB would outscore them by 35 or more points overall, barring major injuries on 1 side or the other. I would be confident that the GB roster & game preparation would "average" out to be 7 PPG better than Detroit.
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  #53  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:48 PM
digdeep digdeep is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?

That's funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea where you get that 13 pt figure - guessing its your sound logic, but I'm not quite sure. I do think GB is much better than Vegas is giving them credit for. And I think Vegas is giving DET too much credit... as they did last week, and again this week.

GB should be a 7/8 point favorite at home - YES.
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  #54  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:50 PM
digdeep digdeep is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]

If the Wash Pass Defense was 5th best in the NFL, teams would be awfully STOOOPID to do that, wouldnt they? Dont they pay these coaches a lot of money to be smarter than that?

[/ QUOTE ]


Well said... teams pass on them, because their RUSH DEF is as good as it is...
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  #55  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:53 PM
Rustjive Rustjive is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

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Okay so the line should be Green Bay -7 right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is value in GB -3 / 3.5 .... -5/-6/-7 all seem like more appropriate lines.

Anybody else agree/disagree...

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Agreed - and the point I was trying to make along with offering some reasoning for why I feel this way.

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That's where it comes from. If you agree with -7 being an appropriate line when GB is playing Detroit IN DETROIT, then based on average HFA it translates to GB being a -13 favorite at home. HFA is worth 3 points over a neutral field.

This isn't even taking into account the even greater advantages (or maybe not, educate me) of Lambeau field and taking the Lions out of a dome.
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  #56  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:57 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?

That's funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea where you get that 13 pt figure - guessing its your sound logic, but I'm not quite sure. I do think GB is much better than Vegas is giving them credit for. And I think Vegas is giving DET too much credit... as they did last week, and again this week.

GB should be a 7/8 point favorite at home - YES.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't know where I got the 13 point figure, then you really shouldn't be betting on sports at all.
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  #57  
Old 11-20-2007, 10:59 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]


I dont know why I am bothering with this - I am not even interested in the wash Pass Def part of the discussion, but I feel it needs to be said. This season teams have thrown against Washington AN AVERAGE OF 34 TIMES PER GAME OVER 10 GAMES!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'VE SAID THAT LIKE 3 TIMES ALREADY.

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If the Wash Pass Defense was 5th best in the NFL, teams would be awfully STOOOPID to do that, wouldnt they? Dont they pay these coaches a lot of money to be smarter than that?

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Hell if I know. Maybe they've played offenses geared towards the pass. Maybe most head coaches are idiots. All I know is when teams have thrown on Washington, the Skins have performed better than when teams have run on them. You're wrong if you disagree, and I'm not sure how much blunter I can be.

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, GB-DET - neutral field - 5 games. I would gladly wager that GB would outscore them by 35 or more points overall, barring major injuries on 1 side or the other. I would be confident that the GB roster & game preparation would "average" out to be 7 PPG better than Detroit.

[/ QUOTE ]

So they should be a 4 point favorite or so IN Detroit?

Brilliant!
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  #58  
Old 11-20-2007, 11:18 PM
digdeep digdeep is offline
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Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?

That's funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea where you get that 13 pt figure - guessing its your sound logic, but I'm not quite sure. I do think GB is much better than Vegas is giving them credit for. And I think Vegas is giving DET too much credit... as they did last week, and again this week.

GB should be a 7/8 point favorite at home - YES.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't know where I got the 13 point figure, then you really shouldn't be betting on sports at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll admit that I am new to the more sophisticated betting strategy... so you undoubtedly have an edge on me there.

I have my money on GB this week - my BET IS IN. Put yours on DET - and show me just how sophisticated of a bettor you are.
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  #59  
Old 11-21-2007, 12:07 AM
kyro kyro is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?

That's funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea where you get that 13 pt figure - guessing its your sound logic, but I'm not quite sure. I do think GB is much better than Vegas is giving them credit for. And I think Vegas is giving DET too much credit... as they did last week, and again this week.

GB should be a 7/8 point favorite at home - YES.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't know where I got the 13 point figure, then you really shouldn't be betting on sports at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll admit that I am new to the more sophisticated betting strategy... so you undoubtedly have an edge on me there.

I have my money on GB this week - my BET IS IN. Put yours on DET - and show me just how sophisticated of a bettor you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or I could not bet that game either way because I think it's a pretty fair line and I'd rather not pay vig on a bet I think I'm going to win around 50% of the time.
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  #60  
Old 11-21-2007, 01:00 AM
1MoreFish4U 1MoreFish4U is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ontario, Canada
Posts: 452
Default Re: No pumpkin pie from Vegas

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you guys think GB should be favored by 13 points if this was in GB?

That's funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea where you get that 13 pt figure - guessing its your sound logic, but I'm not quite sure. I do think GB is much better than Vegas is giving them credit for. And I think Vegas is giving DET too much credit... as they did last week, and again this week.

GB should be a 7/8 point favorite at home - YES.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't know where I got the 13 point figure, then you really shouldn't be betting on sports at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll admit that I am new to the more sophisticated betting strategy... so you undoubtedly have an edge on me there.

I have my money on GB this week - my BET IS IN. Put yours on DET - and show me just how sophisticated of a bettor you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kyro - you obviously just want to be right. You are not interested in considering the other info put forward.

The standard (3 point home advantage) has not been universally accepted for some time - but to the average "note: square" bettor that is what he's heard- so it's gospel.

Of course you dont know why teams are throwing on Wash more than running. Simple: they are more susceptible to the pass than the run.

Lets make you the coach. You can average 6+ yards per pass play against a team that you can't average 4 yds per rush against.

What are you going to do?

Play to win?
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