6 Teams to not make the playoffs- OFFICIAL THREAD - Page 11

Performify · #**101** 11-08-2007, 04:31 PM

Click through to the original thread, linked in the OP:

[ QUOTE ]
You name either 5 or 6 teams that will not make the NFL playoffs this year. If they all don't make it, you win. If one or more of them make it, I win. I'll offer even money on 6 teams, you must give me 1.5-1 on 5 teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thremp · #**102** 11-08-2007, 11:53 PM

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What are the odds on this bet anyway?

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I did it while hammered one night. If you believe in FO, it was like 50.4 or so on the 6 teamer slightly -EV on the 6 teamer. But I was hammered and could have done my math wrong.

ProfessorBen · #**103** 11-11-2007, 02:41 PM

Cleveland up 14-3 on Pitt. Looking like money for Ass F.

Assani Fisher · #**104** 11-11-2007, 07:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland up 14-3 on Pitt. Looking like money for Ass F.

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[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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NajdorfDefense · #**105** 11-12-2007, 12:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland up 14-3 on Pitt. Looking like money for Ass F.

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Ass F is gonna lose his bet to me. Detroit and Cleve are not playoff bound this year. Det has GB 2x, NYG, Dal, at SDG, probably lose at least 4-5 more times. I don't think they get in at 9-7 with losses to PHL and Was and Zona. No run game and no Def = no playoffs. If PHL can beat Miami, Buf, Sea, @NO, [or NYG] and tie Det they get in with tiebreak.

Cle has 4 more road games and AFC is just too tough, and they are 4th going for 2 slots.

Thremp · #**106** 11-12-2007, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland up 14-3 on Pitt. Looking like money for Ass F.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ass F is gonna lose his bet to me. Detroit and Cleve are not playoff bound this year. Det has GB 2x, NYG, Dal, at SDG, probably lose at least 4-5 more times. I don't think they get in at 9-7 with losses to PHL and Was and Zona. No run game and no Def = no playoffs. If PHL can beat Miami, Buf, Sea, @NO, [or NYG] and tie Det they get in with tiebreak.

Cle has 4 more road games and AFC is just too tough, and they are 4th going for 2 slots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Random numbers has you at 29.8% to win going into tonight.
FO has you at 30.2 before the weekend started. Looking significantly more solid after yesterday.

HajiShirazu · #**107** 11-15-2007, 10:58 PM

I can't believe people who are probably successful gamblers actually took this bet. I mean you have to be more than 89% sure that each team won't make it to be +EV on this bet, in a league where 40% of the teams make the playoffs. Furthermore it is worse than that because these aren't independent events, as one team missing makes the other teams more likely to make it.
I think it would be still be hugely profitable for Assani if he gave a push for having 5/6 make it.

NajdorfDefense · #**108** 11-16-2007, 12:10 AM

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I mean you have to be more than 89% sure that each team won't make it to be +EV on this bet

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely wrong, and worse, discussed earlier. Try again.

Assani Fisher · #**109** 11-18-2007, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe people who are probably successful gamblers actually took this bet. I mean you have to be more than 89% sure that each team won't make it to be +EV on this bet, in a league where 40% of the teams make the playoffs. Furthermore it is worse than that because these aren't independent events, as one team missing makes the other teams more likely to make it.
I think it would be still be hugely profitable for Assani if he gave a push for having 5/6 make it.

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Theres only 3 years of data since thats all I've offered the bet for, but you're correct: I would still have won the past 3 years if I offered a push with only one wrong- and I had only made people pick 5 teams before this year.

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Assani Fisher · #**110** 11-18-2007, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland up 14-3 on Pitt. Looking like money for Ass F.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ass F is gonna lose his bet to me. Detroit and Cleve are not playoff bound this year. Det has GB 2x, NYG, Dal, at SDG, probably lose at least 4-5 more times. I don't think they get in at 9-7 with losses to PHL and Was and Zona. No run game and no Def = no playoffs. If PHL can beat Miami, Buf, Sea, @NO, [or NYG] and tie Det they get in with tiebreak.

Cle has 4 more road games and AFC is just too tough, and they are 4th going for 2 slots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cleveland is 6-4. Their schedule:

Sun 11/25 Houston 1:00 pm
Sun 12/2 at Arizona 4:05 pm
Sun 12/9 at NY Jets 4:15 pm
Sun 12/16 Buffalo 1:00 pm
Sun 12/23 at Cincinnati 1:00 pm
Sun 12/30 San Francisco 1:00 pm

What do you think the odds are of them going 6-0, 5-1, 4-2, 3-3, 2-4, 1-5, and 0-6?

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