Sick river card with the nut straight

[ama0330]

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Because it's 3-handed and it looks like we don't have much so he can play AQ-QJ like this I think. He's gonna open up and have a higher bluff frequency 3 handed than 6 handed. Also, what's hero's image? It's not stated anywhere, if you're running over the table it makes it even more of a call.

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imo if he is going to be opening up he'll show more aggression earlier with those hands. I agree that Qx is possible but its less than 1% as far as Im concerned. he is getting seriously out of line here if he has one pair, especially for a 16/13, 3 handed or not.

besides, the whole "opening up more" thing is an assumption and doesnt really hold any water. we know that he SHOULD be doing this because its optimal but theres no way that means he IS doing it. for eg. often when im playing 6-8 tables, one will go 3 handed or so without me really noticing and ill go on playing my 6max game until i realise. just trying to illustrate that we cant make that sort of assumption.

[thac]

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Because it's 3-handed and it looks like we don't have much so he can play AQ-QJ like this I think. He's gonna open up and have a higher bluff frequency 3 handed than 6 handed. Also, what's hero's image? It's not stated anywhere, if you're running over the table it makes it even more of a call.

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imo if he is going to be opening up he'll show more aggression earlier with those hands. I agree that Qx is possible but its less than 1% as far as Im concerned. he is getting seriously out of line here if he has one pair, especially for a 16/13, 3 handed or not.

besides, the whole "opening up more" thing is an assumption and doesnt really hold any water. we know that he SHOULD be doing this because its optimal but theres no way that means he IS doing it. for eg. often when im playing 6-8 tables, one will go 3 handed or so without me really noticing and ill go on playing my 6max game until i realise. just trying to illustrate that we cant make that sort of assumption.

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Yeah you're right. River is a fold most times, but this definitely can be remedied by shoving turn.

[cubase]

Grunch.

I shove the turn. He's already committed half his nearly half his stack. I don't think he's folding to a shove.

If his hand was terrible or just had a draw, I think he check-raises the flop a lot.

His line is a lot of strength on the turn (he has a hand he's willing to commit with). Get it in on the turn.

Quick range of hands I think he can make this play with on the turn and river:

Board: 8c 2d Qs 9c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.750% 47.50% 11.25% 19 4.50 { 99-88, 22, AQs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AQo, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 41.250% 30.00% 11.25% 12 4.50 { JcTc }

Clear call based on odds. If he ever bluffs big on these types of boards, you have a little more equity. If you think he doesn't do this with AQ, your equity drops significantly.

Board: 8c 2d Qs 9c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.929% 67.86% 16.07% 19 4.50 { 99-88, 22, Q9s, JTs, 98s, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 16.071% 00.00% 16.07% 0 4.50 { JcTc }

You basically need him to be able to play AQ like this, otherwise you have to fold.

Play around with the ranges a bit more if you think he does this with more hands.

Edit: And the other problem w/AQ is that I think you get 3-bet pre-flop with it, so it is harder to put it in his range. I think your hopeful outcome is a chop, followed by the reality of looking at his boat and very, very small percentage of the time you'll be looking at AQ or a bluff.

[ama0330]

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River is a fold most times, but this definitely can be remedied by shoving turn.

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Turn shove is best and its nowhere near close.

[KCrow]

I called partially due to this and because I have a habit of calling when I shouldn't and folding hands when I shouldn't. Villain showed up with T9.

I'll always shove the turn from now on. Thanks for the feedback.