Donkey Test

[willyc]

[ QUOTE ]

Meaning, the worst you think the player is, the better it is to go all-in for a higher EV. I think that should make sense, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the problem here is that EV is not really a meaningful concept when all your money is on the line. If you decide that you get the highest EV by pushing all in, what you are saying is "Even if I lose here, I will gain on average in the long run by pushing every time in this situation."

Well if you lose here then you're not going to come across this situation again because you have no money to play with, so you can't really talk about expected value.

There isn't a mathematically correct answer here, you have to ask yourself "Am I willing to risk it all for a good chance of doubling up, or do I want to avoid the possibility of losing everything.

[gedanken]

EV is still a useful concept, you just have to add some non-monetary terms.

If you push and lose, the cost is not $49k, it's years of grinding, + the mental anguish + gretchen mol + getting beat up because we have to hang out with ed norton now + $49K.

Call, ffs.

[willyc]

Fair enough. But yeah, I agree with calling.

[silvar_shark]

Just took test, seems preety decent, i scored 125. Preety good for not playing poker in 2 months.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
I admit, this question really confused me. when would you ever choose anything other than 88? The only reason to choose AK is if you put him on a 10, but then why go all in?

Now, if the question were, which hand would you like to have if the player calls your all in, well then obviously I prefer the AK, because my 88 is probably beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't want a call. So, you need a hand that will have the best chance of standing up against villain's hands that might actually call. That means Tx, JJ, QQ, and KK - all hands that 88 is drawing to just 2 outs with. But with AK, you have 3 times as much opportunity to suck out if he calls. Obv. if he has a set you're in trouble, but otherwise, you want to (1) make him fold, and (2) have the most outs if you're called by a 1-pair hand.

So, I said AK. Remember, you are LAG, he is reraising and betting light, so he could very easily have a weak hand that can't stand the pressure of a push. And he will also probably call with TP or better. So, I like AK.

If he folds, it doesn't matter what you have - even a set ends up the same as 88 if he folds.

[DWarrior]

Yeah, AK is the best answer. You're guaranteed to have 2 outs with 88 if called, AK has 6 outs over most hands. Also, AK takes 1 A and 1 K out of the deck, which gives him less chance to have AT, AA, AK, KT.

[Davdob]

This was a fun exercise. I would love to see the "key"

[Fiepoto]

Anyone know where the answers can be found?

[JPajamas]

Here they are, finally. This key is ALMOST perfect, 156/160.
Answers in brackets are what we came up with as a group, that differ from "ALMOST perfect".
1-A
2-Fold
3-Call (we have fold )
4-All in
5-Call

6-Raise
7-Fold (Move all in)
8-All in
9-Call
10-Fold

11-Fold (all in)
12-Raise
13-B
14-Call
15-Rz 250

16-Call
17-Fold
18-Rz 2300 (close- we have 1600)
19-D
20-Fold

21-Fold (ours is a toss up)
22-QJ
23-Fold
24-Call (another toss up)
25-Call

26-All in (fold)
27-Fold
28-Fold (call)
29-FALSE
30-FALSE

31-KK
32-TRUE
33-Fold
34-Fold (tossup)
35-Call

36-Call allin
37-Raise
38-Call (Raise)
39-Fold
40-Good

41-Fold (call)
42-AK
43-Draw
44-Call
45-Raise

46-Fold
47-E
48-Fold
48-AK (88)
50-Allin

51-Call
52-A/C/D three correct? answers...all yield the same points

If anyone improves on this, PLEASE, make the necessary corrections.

[mikever]

I'm glad you guys finished this. I was too damn lazy.